For all the noise about the current NHL playoff format, three division winners and the second-best team overall are the final four standing. If Nashville had won Game 7 against Winnipeg, all four division winners would be playing for a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals.
The setup might not be broken, after all.
Easily the biggest story through two rounds has been the Golden Knights and Marc-Andre Fleury. The three-time Cup champ has won eight of 10 starts with a .951 save percentage to lead Vegas to the Western Conference finals. He also sports a .938 save percentage on high-danger shots, which is not only 35 points higher than any other goaltender during the playoffs, but it's also higher than the overall save percentage of any of the other netminders playing in the conference finals.
Fleury is now the favorite to win the Conn Smythe trophy at +400.
San Jose was impressive, too. The Sharks generated the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the second round (14.18), and it still wasn't enough. The series played out as an endless loop of highlight-reel saves from Fleury, and timely scoring from the Golden Knights.
It's hard not to be intrigued by this Cinderella run.
Another interesting trend of the postseason has been all the empty-net goals, and it's made a notable impact on over/under numbers. There have already been 31 empty-net tallies through just 67 games, according to MoreHockeyStats.com. It's a huge climb over the 18 scored during
For all the noise about the current NHL playoff format, three division winners and the second-best team overall are the final four standing. If Nashville had won Game 7 against Winnipeg, all four division winners would be playing for a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals.
The setup might not be broken, after all.
Easily the biggest story through two rounds has been the Golden Knights and Marc-Andre Fleury. The three-time Cup champ has won eight of 10 starts with a .951 save percentage to lead Vegas to the Western Conference finals. He also sports a .938 save percentage on high-danger shots, which is not only 35 points higher than any other goaltender during the playoffs, but it's also higher than the overall save percentage of any of the other netminders playing in the conference finals.
Fleury is now the favorite to win the Conn Smythe trophy at +400.
San Jose was impressive, too. The Sharks generated the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the second round (14.18), and it still wasn't enough. The series played out as an endless loop of highlight-reel saves from Fleury, and timely scoring from the Golden Knights.
It's hard not to be intrigued by this Cinderella run.
Another interesting trend of the postseason has been all the empty-net goals, and it's made a notable impact on over/under numbers. There have already been 31 empty-net tallies through just 67 games, according to MoreHockeyStats.com. It's a huge climb over the 18 scored during the entire 2017 playoffs and also up on 2016 (27) and 2015 (25) with two more rounds still to be played this year.
While it's a small sample size, it's definitely interesting to note that the four remaining teams have accounted for 18 of the 31 empty-net goals. With potential for statistical correction over the next two rounds of the playoffs, inflated over/under totals could open the opportunity for some attractive under bets to hit.
Washington vs. Tampa Bay (-190)
The Capitals finally got by Pittsburgh for the first time in three years, and their reward is the rested Lightning. Tampa Bay's 54.33 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five and overall 3.48 goals per 60 minutes both lead all postseason teams, and the Lightning have no notable injuries.
There's also a legitimate chance Washington has now peaked, which adds to the narrative of why the Capitals are such significant underdogs. Additionally, Nicklas Backstrom's (hand) health and potential unavailability could leave the them thin up the middle and without the center, coach Barry Trotz prefers to matchup against the opposition's top line.
Vegas vs. Winnipeg (-145)
This is the first time the Golden Knights are an underdog in a series, and considering there haven't been any chinks in the armour yet, it's a value to consider. Fleury's excellent play has helped Vegas limit opponents to just 0.93 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and the team is at full health.
Still, the Jets are favorites, and probably for good reason. Winnipeg just eliminated the reigning Western Conference champions and has unparalleled depth, especially offensively. It's also worth noting that the Jets were able to knock off the Predators despite winning only one home game. As the higher seed, Winnipeg will have the luxury of home-ice advantage and hosting Vegas four times, if needed.
Picks
With Winnipeg locked in from the beginning as a futures bet to win the Cup, there's now the option to hedge to a profit. It's why taking a chance on a longer shot can be beneficial. However, if you've tailed all the picks in this column, getting all the juice out of the Jets is probably needed to hover in the black. Underdogs just haven't been barking.
Because the favorites have been so successful through the first two rounds of the playoffs, turning to Tampa Bay and doubling down on Winnipeg now has the feel of chasing the trends. Thankfully, having my playoff-pool rosters loaded with Bolts and Jets eases the nerves.
With all that in mind, there are two approaches to this round to recommend if you're also looking to back the favorites.
First, if you're confident in Winnipeg and Tampa Bay, it's not out of the question to lock them in. However, a Game 1 loss for either team would likely swing the odds enough for them to be an underdog, or at least for them to be available at a much better number.
The previous Conn Smythe recommendations were all eliminated last round, and as noted, Fleury is the favorite to win the award at +400. Considering Vegas is only +350 to win the Cup, backing the netminder is probably the smarter angle for Golden Knight believers. He could also hoist the trophy without Vegas winning it all – Fleury's been that good.
Another option to consider is Mark Scheifele at +750. He's far from a clear-cut candidate from a deep Winnipeg roster, but it's hard to overlook his 11 goals as the No. 1 center that plays in all situations. He's put the league on notice the last two regular seasons with consecutive point-per-game showings, and now he's leading the way for Winnipeg with the stakes at their highest.
