Breakout players are the lifeblood of winning fantasy teams, with the likes of Alvin Kamara, Will Fuller and Juju Smith-Schuster serving as recent reminders that late-round picks can make the difference between competing for a league title or bowing out after 13 weeks. There's no foolproof way to identify breakout players, but there are some helpful indicators. Is a player stepping into a bigger role? How does the talent level compare to that of older, more established players who have a similar average draft position? Has bad injury luck been the only thing holding this player back? Does he play in an innovative system? Answering yes to a combination of these questions can help shape a strong and aggressive draft strategy with an eye on nailing your mid-to-late-round draft picks and bringing home your league title.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City
There's some risk in going after a quarterback with as short a track record as Mahomes, but his mix of talent and team context makes him a serious breakout candidate. Mahomes (6-3, 230) has one of the strongest arms in the league and his mobility allows him to extend plays and thrive when things go off script. What's more, the weapons around him in the Chiefs' offense perfectly suit Mahomes' skill set. If Tyreek Hill was able to become one of the league's top deep threats with Alex Smith as his quarterback, imagine the success he could have with Mahomes under center. The addition of Sammy Watkins
Breakout players are the lifeblood of winning fantasy teams, with the likes of Alvin Kamara, Will Fuller and Juju Smith-Schuster serving as recent reminders that late-round picks can make the difference between competing for a league title or bowing out after 13 weeks. There's no foolproof way to identify breakout players, but there are some helpful indicators. Is a player stepping into a bigger role? How does the talent level compare to that of older, more established players who have a similar average draft position? Has bad injury luck been the only thing holding this player back? Does he play in an innovative system? Answering yes to a combination of these questions can help shape a strong and aggressive draft strategy with an eye on nailing your mid-to-late-round draft picks and bringing home your league title.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City
There's some risk in going after a quarterback with as short a track record as Mahomes, but his mix of talent and team context makes him a serious breakout candidate. Mahomes (6-3, 230) has one of the strongest arms in the league and his mobility allows him to extend plays and thrive when things go off script. What's more, the weapons around him in the Chiefs' offense perfectly suit Mahomes' skill set. If Tyreek Hill was able to become one of the league's top deep threats with Alex Smith as his quarterback, imagine the success he could have with Mahomes under center. The addition of Sammy Watkins adds another outside threat and Travis Kelce is a terror in the intermediate passing game. Everything is lined up for Mahomes to instantly taste success in his first year as the Chiefs' starter.
Josh Doctson, WR, Washington
It's easy to be skeptical of Doctson after an injury-shortened rookie year and an uneven performance in his second campaign. It's also fair to point out he will be working with a new quarterback in Alex Smith, who is not known for his downfield throwing ability. Those factors should keep Docton's draft day price down, making him a steal who could end up being a must-start every week. Doctson (6-2, 206) is a lanky wideout with outstanding leaping ability and body control that makes him dangerous in the red zone. He only caught 44.9 percent of his 78 targets last year, but given that it was his first full NFL season, it's not unreasonable to expect some improvement in that area. If Doctson can bump up his catch rate to league average, then he will outperform many of the wideouts going ahead of him in drafts.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco
Kittle's rookie season success can't be understated, as he caught 68 percent of his targets for 515 yards and two touchdowns. That type of production is uncommon for rookie tight ends, especially one who had to wait until the fifth round to hear his name called in the 2017 draft. With a year under his belt and improved chemistry with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Kittle is ready to take off in 2018. Kittle is the starting tight end in one of the league's most cutting-edge offenses, and he has the talent to convert opportunity into production thanks to his sure hands and standout athleticism.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati
Last season was tough for Mixon believers, who watched the second-round pick fall into a frustrating usage pattern in a clunky Cincinnati offense and never settle into a rhythm. Mixon averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry and went over 60 yards in a game just three times. A Year 2 breakout could be on tap, however. Mixon, on a talent basis, was arguably the second best back in his class behind Leonard Fournette. He has a workhorse frame and also sports breakaway speed with a 40-yard dash in the low 4.4's. Jeremy Hill is no longer around to poach early-down work, so the volume will be there for Mixon to prove that his rookie struggles were a one-year aberration.
Trey Burton, TE, Chicago
Chicago's signing of Burton may prove to be one of the shrewdest moves of this offseason. Burton, 26, is ready to step into a starting role after serving as Zach Ertz' backup to begin his career. There's a limited track record with Burton, but the numbers are still encouraging. He brought in 23 of 31 targets for 248 yards (8.0 YPT) and five touchdowns in 2017 and now steps into a similarly innovative offense in Chicago with Matt Nagy running the show. Nagy featured the tight end during his time in Kansas City, targeting that group on 32 percent of the Chiefs' pass plays in 2017. While it's unfair to expect Burton to morph into Travis Kelce just because of the system, it's difficult to ignore how good a situation this could be for a tight end entering his prime.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee
There were glimpses of a Davis breakout down the stretch last year, highlighted by a two-touchdown performance in New England during the playoffs. This year, the sky appears to be the limit for the second-year wideout from Western Michigan. Davis possesses a true No.1 receiver's frame and skill set, and he's playing in an offense orchestrated by Matt LaFleur, who turned Jared Goff from possible bust into a franchise QB in Los Angeles. If he can get similar results out of Marcus Mariota, who is more polished than Goff, then the Titans offense will reach a new level this season and Davis will arguably be the biggest beneficiary.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
Injuries completely derailed Williams' rookie season, as he was held to just 11 catches for 95 yards on 23 targets while playing just 22 percent of the team's offensive snaps. Now, Williams is on shakier ground than anyone else on this list in terms of role. He's also 6-4, 218 pounds, and his athleticism and contested catch ability made him a top-10 pick just last year, so it's not as if he's washed up or damaged goods. There is major competition for targets in Los Angeles with Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin all in the fold, but Hunter Henry's season-ending injury could open some looks, particularly in the red zone, for Williams. In all, drafting Williams means betting on his talent, and there's still plenty of reason to believe he can be a fantasy factor.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee
It's hardly reinventing the wheel to suggest that Henry could be in for a big season, but after the Dion Lewis signing, it's worth doubling down on that prediction. Sure, Lewis will steal some passing-down work and get a fair share of the carries, but Henry is an elite talent with great athleticism for a player his size (6-3, 247) and he doesn't solely rely on brute strength to rack up yardage. The draft market may be over-correcting its view of the Titans backfield, sliding Henry down a couple rounds when in reality he is a legitimate threat to push for 1,000 yards and provide low-end RB1 value.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay
The second-year man out of Penn State is ready to take on a bigger role after impressing in limited opportunities as a rookie and turning in a strong offseason. Godwin caught 34 of 55 targets for 525 yards, which is good for an impressive 9.5 yards-per-target. Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator said earlier in the offseason that Godwin had "earned the right" to be a starter in three-wide sets. Of course, Adam Humphries' proficiency out of the slot will keep him in the fold alongside the established tandem of Mike Evans and Desean Jackson, so Godwin will have to continue impressing. That said, Godwin has the talent to win outside or in the slot, which makes him a valuable chess piece in a Tampa Bay offense that threw it at the third-highest rate (62.3%) in the league last year. There should be enough targets to go around and Godwin can make an impact as long as he sees enough of them.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay
Green Bay's running back situation is muddled, and while that could scare owners away from that backfield entirely, there's room for profit in the form of Jones. He was the only Packers running back to rush for over 4.0 yards per carry last season, taking 81 carries for 448 yards (5.5 YPC). What's more, his pass-catching ability wasn't fully on display with Brett Hundley proving to be an unreliable fill-in for the injured Aaron Rodgers. For reference, Jones had two seasons of 28 or more receptions in college. It's not just that Jones' all-around skill set is tantalizing, it's also that Jamaal Williams was inefficient as a runner in 2017 and Ty Montgomery is not capable of being a workhorse back. The backfield committee will keep Jones' draft day price down and allow shrewd owners to nab a player that should end up as the Packers' top back.
