This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at the final slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 15.60% | 365 | 78.49% | 3.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 15.50% | 600 | 85.71% | 2.21 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 13.20% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.25 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 9.60% | 130 | 56.52% | 4.17 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 8.00% | 650 | 86.67% | 1.07 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 6.90% | 935 | 90.34% | 0.67 |
| LIONS | Packers | 6.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.68 |
| COLTS | Texans | 4.90% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.63 |
| Redskins | GIANTS | 4.10% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.58 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 3.70% | 185 | 64.91% | 1.30 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 2.40% | 340 | 77.27% | 0.55 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 1.90% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.76 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 1.80% | 190 | 65.52% | 0.62 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 1.60% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.41 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 1.10% | 61 | 37.89% | 0.68 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 0.80% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.30 |
| Browns | STEELERS | 0.50% | 15.5 | 13.42% | 0.43 |
| Cowboys | EAGLES | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.17 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 0.40% | 77 | 43.50% | 0.23 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 0.30% | 34 | 25.37% | 0.22 |
| Texans | COLTS | 0.20% | 50 | 33.33% | 0.13 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 0.20% | 63 | 38.65% | 0.12 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.20% | 72 | 41.86% | 0.12 |
| Raiders | CHARGERS | 0.20% | 29 | 22.48% | 0.16 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.10% | 36 | 26.47% | 0.07 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 0.10% | 67 | 40.12% | 0.06 |
| Jaguars | TITANS | 0.10% | 54 | 35.06% | 0.06 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.10% | 27 | 21.26% | 0.08 |
| Bears | VIKINGS | 0.10% | 16.5 | 14.16% | 0.09 |
| Panthers | FALCONS | 0.10% | 52.5 | 34.43% | 0.07 |
| Jets | PATRIOTS | 0.10% | 10.5 | 9.50% | 0.09 |
| Bengals | RAVENS | 0.0% | 20.5 | 17.01% | 0.00 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
I included
Let's take a look at the final slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 15.60% | 365 | 78.49% | 3.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 15.50% | 600 | 85.71% | 2.21 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 13.20% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.25 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 9.60% | 130 | 56.52% | 4.17 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 8.00% | 650 | 86.67% | 1.07 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 6.90% | 935 | 90.34% | 0.67 |
| LIONS | Packers | 6.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.68 |
| COLTS | Texans | 4.90% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.63 |
| Redskins | GIANTS | 4.10% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.58 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 3.70% | 185 | 64.91% | 1.30 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 2.40% | 340 | 77.27% | 0.55 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 1.90% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.76 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 1.80% | 190 | 65.52% | 0.62 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 1.60% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.41 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 1.10% | 61 | 37.89% | 0.68 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 0.80% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.30 |
| Browns | STEELERS | 0.50% | 15.5 | 13.42% | 0.43 |
| Cowboys | EAGLES | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.17 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 0.40% | 77 | 43.50% | 0.23 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 0.30% | 34 | 25.37% | 0.22 |
| Texans | COLTS | 0.20% | 50 | 33.33% | 0.13 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 0.20% | 63 | 38.65% | 0.12 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.20% | 72 | 41.86% | 0.12 |
| Raiders | CHARGERS | 0.20% | 29 | 22.48% | 0.16 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.10% | 36 | 26.47% | 0.07 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 0.10% | 67 | 40.12% | 0.06 |
| Jaguars | TITANS | 0.10% | 54 | 35.06% | 0.06 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.10% | 27 | 21.26% | 0.08 |
| Bears | VIKINGS | 0.10% | 16.5 | 14.16% | 0.09 |
| Panthers | FALCONS | 0.10% | 52.5 | 34.43% | 0.07 |
| Jets | PATRIOTS | 0.10% | 10.5 | 9.50% | 0.09 |
| Bengals | RAVENS | 0.0% | 20.5 | 17.01% | 0.00 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
I included every team at the request of a commenter - even the Bengals who were not listed by Officefootballpools.com because apparently no one has yet (as of Wednesday morning) taken them.
Week 17 is obviously wacky with some teams locked into playoff seeds and not trying. A good guide to what each has to play for is here.
There are eight games with lines of seven or more and three double-digit favorites, so there's plenty from which to choose. One caveat: don't assume teams who are missing the playoffs won't try as hard as those needing to win. They have all offseason to rest, no pressure and no reason not to go out on a positive note.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
With the Patriots needing a win to lock up the No. 1 seed, I don't have to make the case here. I give them a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are locked into the No. 2 seed if the Patriots win, but they play at the same time, so unless the Patriots jump out to a massive lead early, I'd expect the Steelers to try for most of the game. I give them an 87 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are almost locked into the No. 2 seed, but if the Panthers win, and the Rams and Saints lose, they could get bounced with a loss to the Bears. That's pretty remote, but that it's possible makes me think they'll try. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens bully weak teams at home, and though the Bengals played better last week, they qualify. Moreover, the Ravens need to win to lock up a playoff spot. I give them an 81 percent chance to win this game.
5. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks need to win and get help from the Panthers, but that's plausible since Carolina is playing for a home game in the Wild Card round and a remote chance of the No. 2 seed. The Cardinals won't roll over, but I give the Seahawks a 77 percent chance to win this game.
6. New Orleans Saints
The Bucs have played better of late and are at home, but the Saints want to lock up the division and a home game in the Wild Card Round. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
7. Detroit Lions
The Lions usually beat up on weak teams at home, but they have trouble stopping the run, and the Packers should give them a heavy dose of it. I give the Lions a 73 percent chance of winning this game.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers need to win and have the Titans lose (a plausible scenario if the Jaguars show up at all), but they have such a history of epic chokes, I could see them blowing it, especially against a division rival that's playing better defense of late. I give them a 72 percent chance to win this game.
9. Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles are locked into the No. 1 seed and might pull Nick Foles early. I give the Cowboys a 70 percent chance to win this game.
10. Denver Broncos
The Chiefs have nothing for which to play and will likely rest their starters. But the Broncos are starting third-stringer Paxton Lynch. I give the Broncos a 65 percent chance to win this game.
11. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are better than the Giants, but it's a road game against a division rival. I give them a 65 percent chance to win this game.
12. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a doormat, but they're at home and playing another doormat. I give them a 55 percent chance to win this game.
13. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are at home and playing for their playoff lives, but they're facing a moderately incentivized Panthers team that's probably better. I give the Falcons a 53 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans - The Jaguars say they'll try, but whether they do so for all four quarters remains to be seen. It's enough to spook me off a weak Titans team, playoff incentive notwithstanding.
Los Angeles Rams - The Rams have a modest incentive to try - getting a third rather than fourth seed could result in a home game during the NFC Championship should they make it that far. But the four seed draws the Eagles without Carson Wentz, rather than the Vikings, so it's unclear which they'll prefer. In any event, expect the 49ers to show up.
Buffalo Bills - They're not good on the road, and I'm not sure they're much better than the Dolphins anyway.
