NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 13

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+5.5), 43.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Steelers may have won six straight, but they aren't exactly dominating on a consistent basis, escaping by the skin of their teeth against teams they should be steamrolling like the Colts and Packers. That's a trend that could haunt them in a divisional game, but Pittsburgh has mostly been owning Cincinnati in recent years, so they've probably got this. Of bigger concern is a toe injury to Antonio Brown, but with an extra day to heal up he's not expected to miss another chance to shine in prime time. The Bengals, at least, seem to have gotten Joe Mixon going despite their patchwork offensive line, but that hasn't helped Andy Dalton – one of only two starting QBs in the league getting less than 2.5 seconds per dropback to throw the ball. (Derek Carr's the other). Expect T.J. Watt to extend his family's legacy of making life miserable for the Red Rifle.

The Skinny:
•2017 PIT offense: 23.5 PPG (13th), 104.1 rushing yds/gm (18th), 272.0 passing yds/gm (9th), 15 sacks allowed (4th), 16 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 CIN offense: 18.1 PPG (25th), 75.6 rushing yds/gm (31st), 215.6 passing yds/gm (27th), 28 sacks allowed (21st), 17 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 PIT defense: 17.5 PPG allowed (4th), 96.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 218.4 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 38 sacks (2nd), 16 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 CIN defense: 19.5 PPG allowed (10th), 126.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 223.1 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 33 sacks (3rd), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 PIT, plus 1-0 PIT in postseason. Average score PIT 24-CIN 18, average margin of victory 10 points.
•Dalton career stats versus PIT, 13 games: 3-10, 58.2 percent completion rate, 207.5 passing yds/gm, 15:13 TD:INT, 6.2 YPA, 75.6 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 12 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Le'Veon Bell racks up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 210 yards and a TD to Jesse James. Mixon manages 60 yards, but Giovani Bernard emerges from mothballs to score a receiving touchdown. Dalton throws for 260 yards and a second score to Tyler Boyd, but he also coughs up a fumble in the fourth quarter that Watt returns to the house. Steelers, 24-17

Minnesota (+3) at Atlanta, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: With a seven-game winning streak on the go and a three-game lead in the NFC North in their pocket, the Vikings have emerged as one of the conference's elites despite the fact that they've lost their Week 1 starting QB and RB – which, not to take anything away from Case Keenum, speaks to the strength of their defense more than anything. The Falcons have finally gotten their act together, though, and the defending conference champs have gotten themselves back in the playoff picture with a three-game winning streak of their own. Julio Jones provided one of his periodic reminders last week that, oh yeah, he's pretty good, but an 11-128-0 combined line over the prior two games makes you wonder why Atlanta doesn't fire deep shots at Julio on every drive, or at least a couple of times a game.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIN offense: 24.6 PPG (8th), 124.5 rushing yds/gm (5th), 259.8 passing yds/gm (13th), 12 sacks allowed (T-1st), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 ATL offense: 24.1 PPG (11th), 116.8 rushing yds/gm (T-10th), 266.8 passing yds/gm (11th), 16 sacks allowed (5th), 13 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 MIN defense: 17.7 PPG allowed (5th), 75.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 234.5 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 30 sacks (T-10th), 14 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 ATL defense: 20.9 PPG allowed (13th), 113.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 228.1 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 30 sacks (T-10th), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•Julio Jones career stats versus MIN, three games: 11 catches on 15 targets for 138 yards and zero TDs.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Jerick McKinnon collects 80 combined yards, while Latavius Murray adds 60 yards and a TD. Keenum throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Devonta Freeman picks up 60 yards, while Tevin Coleman manages 40. Matt Ryan throws for 250 yards and TDs to Austin Hooper and Taylor Gabriel. Vikings, 24-20

Houston (+7) at Tennessee, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Tom Savage once again struggled with turnovers last week against the Ravens, but a 6.8 YPA against that defense actually wasn't all that bad. He's also been able to get the ball downfield consistently, tossing 11 passes of 20 or more yards over the last three games, with seven of them going DeAndre Hopkins' way. As offensive strategies go, "chuck it to Nuk" is a pretty good one. The Titans have their own burgeoning physical mismatch at wide receiver in Corey Davis, but whether it's because the team is still focused on their ground game or Marcus Mariota's recent funk (5:7 TD:INT in four games since their bye), the rookie hasn't been able to break out, even against seemingly vulnerable secondaries like that of the Colts. The Texans' back end is similarly porous – their 7.9 YPA allowed is 30th in the league, two spots ahead of Indy – but as long as the coaching staff is worried more about Davis' run blocking than his big-play ability, it'll be tough for him to make an impact. Davis' run blocking also isn't the reason why DeMarco Murray's YPC has been below 4.0 every game since Week 5, and why he has only one performance this season above a 4.4 YPC.

The Skinny:
•2017 HOU offense: 25.7 PPG (6th), 122.8 rushing yds/gm (7th), 243.9 passing yds/gm (17th), 34 sacks allowed (24th), 22 turnovers (30th)
•2017 TEN offense: 22.0 PPG (17th), 115.2 rushing yds/gm (13th), 221.4 passing yds/gm (24th), 25 sacks allowed (T-12th), 19 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 HOU defense: 25.9 PPG allowed (28th), 96.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 259.0 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 26 sacks (17th), 14 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 TEN defense: 24.5 PPG allowed (24th), 89.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 247.0 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 25 sacks (18th), 15 turnovers (T-17th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 HOU, average score HOU 30-TEN 16, average margin of victory 16 points.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: HOU, 30th against WR2s (plus 33.6 percent DVOA), fourth against RBs (minus 24.8 percent DVOA); TEN, 29th against WR2s (plus 31.7 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lamar Miller hits for 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Savage throws for 240 yards and a TD to Hopkins but gets picked off twice. Murray and Derrick Henry each produce 60 yards, with Henry scoring. Mariota throws for 270 yards and TDs to Davis and Delanie Walker while running in another touchdown. Titans, 31-17

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (+3.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: I don't know what happened on the Chiefs' bye week, but they need to fix it pronto or they're going to give away what looked like a slam-dunk AFC West title not too long ago. While the team was stumbling a bit going into it, they've been downright dreadful in two weeks since, with Alex Smith (1:3 TD:INT, 5.6 YPA) being especially bad. This isn't a case of him reverting to game-manager mode, he's turned back the clock all the way to his first couple of seasons with the Niners. The Jets remain something of an enigma, but looking back on their schedule, their only really impressive win came against the Jaguars in Week 4, an overtime victory that was a result of Jacksonville giving the game away rather than the Jets doing much to win it. A team that can only pull an upset if the other team screws up may not be who Kansas City wants to face right now, though.

The Skinny:
•2017 KC offense: 24.7 PPG (7th), 112.6 rushing yds/gm (15th), 261.2 passing yds/gm (12th), 27 sacks allowed (T-19th), eight turnovers (2nd)
•2017 NYJ offense: 20.7 PPG (20th), 102.3 rushing yds/gm (20th), 234.5 passing yds/gm (18th), 35 sacks allowed (T-25th), 17 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 KC defense: 21.5 PPG allowed (14th), 126.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 256.5 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 21 sacks (25th), 14 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 NYJ defense: 23.4 PPG allowed (16th), 120.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 233.8 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 22 sacks (T-23rd), 17 turnovers (T-10th)
•Smith career stats versus NYJ, three games: 3-0, 68.2 percent completion rate, 193.0 passing yds/gm, 3:0 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 99.1 QB rating.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: KC, 28th against WR1s (plus 23.1 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 37.4 percent DVOA); NYJ, fourth against TEs (minus 23.6 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kareem Hunt finally wakes up, putting together 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 220 yards and a TD to Tyreek Hill, who also returns a punt to the house, while Smith runs in a score of his own. Bilal Powell leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards. Josh McCown throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to Robby Anderson and Chad Hansen. Chiefs, 28-23

Denver at Miami (+1.5), 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Poor, poor Paxton Lynch. His stint as the starting QB lasted all of about a half, during which he managed a 2.9 YPA, before he injured his ankle and had to watch Trevor Siemian look vaguely competent again in his place. You'd think less than 100 pass attempts over two seasons wouldn't be enough to write off a first-round pick, but it's been a long time since the Broncos actually had to develop a quarterback, and they might just decide to go get a more finished product in the offseason. The Dolphins, of course, have their own issues at QB, but at least (?) Jay Cutler's back. Denver's secondary isn't as sharp as it's been, but they still limit yardage even if their interceptions have mostly disappeared and they've given up a league-worst 24 passing TDs.

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 17.9 PPG (26th), 107.7 rushing yds/gm (16th), 232.7 passing yds/gm (20th), 36 sacks allowed (T-28th), 24 turnovers (31st)
•2017 MIA offense: 15.8 PPG (30th), 79.2 rushing yds/gm (29th), 223.9 passing yds/gm (23rd), 25 sacks allowed (T-12th), 20 turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 DEN defense: 25.5 PPG allowed (26th), 87.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 213.5 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 24 sacks (T-19th), eight turnovers (31st)
•2017 MIA defense: 26.3 PPG allowed (T-30th), 117.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 238.5 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 18 sacks (30th), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DEN, third against WR1s (minus 32.9 percent DVOA), 29th against other WRs (plus 35.1 percent DVOA); MIA, 29th against WR1s (plus 25.2 percent DVOA), 30th against other WRs (plus 42.4 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devontae Booker picks up 50 combined yards, while C.J. Anderson manages 40. Siemian throws for 240 yards and a TD to Demaryius Thomas, but he also gets picked off twice, one of which gets returned for a score by Cordrea Tankersley. Kenyan Drake zips for 90 combined yards and a score. Cutler throws for less than 200 yards but does hit DeVante Parker for a touchdown. Dolphins, 27-13

Indianapolis (+9.5) at Jacksonville, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: I think it's safe to say center Ryan Kelly was missed last week. After he exited the game in the first half with a concussion, Jacoby Brissett was left at the mercy of what until then had been a lackluster Titans pass rush, and Tennessee finished the game with a shocking eight sacks, which is about a third of their total on the season. Kelly's still out this week, and the Jags lead the league in sacks, so let's see (pulls out cocktail napkin, starts doing math)... I predict Brissett will get sacked 23 times Sunday. OK, maybe not, but this one could get ugly in a hurry, even if Leonard Fournette's ankle still isn't quite 100 percent.

The Skinny:
•2017 IND offense: 17.7 PPG (27th), 95.3 rushing yds/gm (24th), 226.9 passing yds/gm (21st), 47 sacks allowed (32nd), 13 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 JAC offense: 24.5 PPG (9th), 154.3 rushing yds/gm (1st), 204.0 passing yds/gm (28th), 19 sacks allowed (T-7th), 15 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 IND defense: 27.3 PPG allowed (32nd), 109.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 278.0 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 19 sacks (T-28th), 16 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 JAC defense: 15.3 PPG allowed (1st), 113.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 193.2 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 41 sacks (1st), 25 turnovers (2nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 IND, but JAC has won three of the last four including a 27-0 shutout in Week 7. Average score IND 24-JAC 19, average margin of victory 17 points.
•Key injuries, IND: C Ryan Kelly (concussion, out), CB Rashaan Melvin (hand, out); JAC, LB Telvin Smith (concussion, out), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards, but Marlon Mack manages 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Brissett is on the run all game, throwing for less than 200 yards and scrambling for 40 while getting picked off twice and losing a fumble that Yannick Ngakoue returns to the house. Fournette runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Blake Bortles throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Marqise Lee. Jaguars, 27-7

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (+1.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Jameis Winston's return may explain the point spread, but both teams have some optimism coming into this one. With their franchise QB healthy, and Doug Martin sidelined, the Bucs offense could return to the Wild West ways that saw Winston top 300 yards in four straight games that he managed to complete between Weeks 3 and 7. That's also probably great news for Mike Evans and Cameron Brate, neither of who have scored since then. Brett Hundley is coming off the best performance of his career in a tough road matchup against the Steelers, and this year's edition of the Tampa defense is less an iron curtain than a beaded one. With Green Bay's playoff chances hanging by a thread, Hundley can't afford to regress.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 20.3 PPG (23rd), 81.1 rushing yds/gm (28th), 274.8 passing yds/gm (4th), 20 sacks allowed (9th), 14 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 GB offense: 21.1 PPG (19th), 100.4 rushing yds/gm (21st), 233.6 passing yds/gm (19th), 40 sacks allowed (31st), 14 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 TB defense: 23.8 PPG allowed (21st), 110.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 293.1 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 15 sacks (32nd), 20 turnovers (4th)
•2017 GB defense: 23.7 PPG allowed (T-19th), 107.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 259.4 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 22 sacks (T-23rd), 19 turnovers (T-5th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: TB, 28th against other WRs (plus 32.5 percent DVOA); GB, 30th against WR1s (plus 29.0 percent DVOA), 27th against WR2s (plus 21.5 percent DVOA), fourth against other WRs (minus 22.8 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, TB: RB Doug Martin (concussion, out), WR DeSean Jackson (foot, questionable), TE Cameron Brate (hip, questionable), S T.J. Ward (concussion, out); GB, LB Clay Matthews (groin, questionable), RB Aaron Jones (knee, questionable), CB Kevin King (shoulder, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacquizz Rodgers manages 50 yards. Winston throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting Evans twice and Adam Humphries once, with Evans hauling in 120 yards. Jamaal Williams runs for 70 yards and a score. Hundley throws for a career-high 260 yards and a touchdown to Davante Adams while running in a TD of his own. Packers, 27-24

Detroit (+3) at Baltimore, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Lions dodged a bullet when Matthew Stafford's ankle injury proved not to be serious, but their playoff hopes remain dicey after losing to the Vikings on Thanksgiving. Ameer Abdullah's neck issue also takes away another option for Detroit against the stingy Baltimore secondary, and they might need someone else in their backfield to step up if they're going to steal this one. The Ravens seem to have a better shot at the postseason right now by doing what they've always done, letting their defense compensate for a shoddy offense. Joe Flacco may be making fans pine for the glory days of Trent Dilfer, but the formula still has Baltimore with the fourth best point differential in the AFC at plus-49.

The Skinny:
•2017 DET offense: 26.7 PPG (5th), 78.3 rushing yds/gm (30th), 273.6 passing yds/gm (T-7th), 36 sacks allowed (T-28th), 14 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 BAL offense: 21.5 PPG (18th), 116.8 rushing yds/gm (T-10th), 179.0 passing yds/gm (32nd), 23 sacks allowed (10th), 15 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 DET defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (22nd), 116.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 256.5 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 23 sacks (T-21st), 19 turnovers (T-5th)
•2017 BAL defense: 17.0 PPG allowed (2nd), 115.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 208.7 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 30 sacks (T-10th), 26 turnovers (1st)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DET, second against WR1s (minus 35.2 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (plus 32.2 percent DVOA), second against RBs (minus 32.8 percent DVOA); BAL, fourth against WR1s (minus 30.2 percent DVOA), second against WR2s (minus 42.7 percent DVOA), third against other WRs (minus 26.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Zach Zenner leads the Lions backfield with 50 yards, but he does score. Stafford throws for 240 yards and a TD to Eric Ebron. Alex Collins gallops for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Flacco throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Ben Watson. Ravens, 24-17

New England at Buffalo (+9), 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Patriots continue to roll, winning seven straight in dominant fashion, averaging 28 points a game while giving up only 13.1. Their backfield has also become weirdly stable, with Dion Lewis getting 14-16 touches in each of the last five games while Rex Burkhead absorbs most of the rest. While Bill Belichick typically doesn't like to be that predictable and might want to give Mike Gillislee a revenge game after being inactive for a few weeks, there's an element of "keep doing it until someone stops it" at work here too. A Bills defense that's given up a league-high 13 rushing TDs to running backs this year doesn't seem like the unit that'll have the solution to that puzzle. Tyrod Taylor did lead them to a win last week, but he'll need to generate more than 16 points to do it again and keep Buffalo in the wild-card hunt. How he'll manage that with basically every receiver on the roster banged up, I'm not entirely sure.

The Skinny:
•2017 NE offense: 29.5 PPG (3rd), 114.2 rushing yds/gm (15th), 310.1 passing yds/gm (1st), 24 sacks allowed (11th), seven turnovers (1st)
•2017 BUF offense: 20.4 PPG (22nd), 116.5 rushing yds/gm (12th), 197.3 passing yds/gm (30th), 31 sacks allowed (23rd), 13 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 NE defense: 20.0 PPG allowed (11th), 115.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 286.1 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 24 sacks (T-19th), 16 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 BUF defense: 23.6 PPG allowed (17th), 114.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 249.8 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 17 sacks (31st), 19 turnovers (T-5th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NE, average score NE 29-BUF 22, average margin of victory 12 points.
•LeSean McCoy career stats versus NE, four games: 68.0 rushing yds/gm, 4.3 YPC, two TDs; 19 catches for 136 yards and a TD on 27 targets
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lewis piles up 80 combined yards and a TD, while Burkhead adds 60 yards and a score of his own. Tom Brady throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. McCoy pops for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Taylor throws for 220 yards and a score to Deonte Thompson. Patriots, 31-17

San Francisco (+3) at Chicago, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Here we go. It may have come in garbage time, but Jimmy Garoppolo certainly looked like a real NFL quarterback in his lone drive last week, and Kyle Shanahan is giving him at least a small window to prove that it wasn't a fluke. The Bears aren't exactly tough opposition either, at least on the defensive side of the ball. Their Jordan Howard-led offense is another story given how inept the Niners' defense has been this year, though, which gives this game sneaky shootout potential if Jimmy G is the real deal.

The Skinny:
•2017 SF offense: 17.0 PPG (28th), 99.9 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 244.8 passing yds/gm (16th), 35 sacks allowed (T-25th), 17 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 CHI offense: 16.1 PPG (29th), 120.4 rushing yds/gm (8th), 284.3 passing yds/gm (31st), 27 sacks allowed (T-19th), 19 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 SF defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (27th), 129.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 255.5 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 20 sacks (T-26th), 13 turnovers (T-24th)
•2017 CHI defense: 22.9 PPG allowed (15th), 112.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 233.1 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 30 sacks (T-10th), 15 turnovers (T-17th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SF, 25th against WR2s (plus 20.8 percent DVOA), 27th against other WRs (plus 22.3 percent DVOA), third against TEs (minus 26.8 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (plus 25.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carlos Hyde bangs out 110 combined yards and a TD. Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne. Howard delivers 130 yards and two scores, while Tarik Cohen also catches a TD pass. Mitchell Trubisky throws for 230 yards and a second score to Dontrelle Inman. Bears, 31-27

Cleveland (+14) at L.A. Chargers, 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Here we go, again. Josh Gordon will see his first snaps since 2014 this week, and while if anybody knows what it means to walk along the lonely street of dreams it's him, expecting him to have a big game in his return after such a long layoff, and with DeShone Kizer lobbing balls his way, might be asking too much. The Chargers' secondary is one of the better units in the league too, even if Casey Hayward is away from the team due to a death in the family. If you want an '80s hit to sum up Keenan Allen's current form, there's really only one choice. After not doing much of anything for a month and a half, he's exploded for 331 yards and three TDs over the last two games, and given how the Browns have trouble slowing down anyone, Allen will likely continue being untouched by defenses while Philip Rivers' bombs, like rain, keep falling down, down, down.

The Skinny:
•2017 CLE offense: 15.1 PPG (32nd), 107.4 rushing yds/gm (17th), 224.2 passing yds/gm (22nd), 36 sacks allowed (T-28th), 28 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 LAC offense: 22.6 PPG (15th), 93.2 rushing yds/gm (25th), 271.0 passing yds/gm (10th), 12 sacks allowed (T-1st), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 CLE defense: 26.3 PPG allowed (T-30th), 97.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 232.0 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 23 sacks (T-21st), 11 turnovers (26th)
•2017 LAC defense: 18.4 PPG allowed (6th), 133.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 223.5 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 32 sacks (T-4th), 19 turnovers (T-5th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: CLE, 32nd against WR1s (plus 35.5 percent DVOA), fifth against WR2s (minus 38.2 percent DVOA), 32nd against TEs (plus 35.8 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 26.5 percent DVOA); LAC, fourth against WR2s (minus 38.8 percent DVOA)
•Rivers career stats versus CLE, five games: 3-2, 59.1 percent completion rate, 283.6 passing yds/gm, 7:1 TD:INT, 8.3 YPA, 97.1 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Isaiah Crowell picks up 80 yards and a TD. Kizer throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off three times. Melvin Gordon gains 70 yards and a touchdown, but Austin Ekeler out-does him with 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, one to Allen (who brings down 100 yards) and one to Hunter Henry. Chargers, 37-10

N.Y. Giants (+8.5) at Oakland, 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: I'm not giving Geno Smith a song. Sorry. Bad as Eli Manning has been this season, he's been about fifth on the list of problems for the Giants this season, and switching from him to a retread like Smith could only make sense to a football mind like Ben McAdoo's. The thing is, McAdoo may end up looking like a genius for a week given the ability of the Raiders defense to make any quarterback look good. They sit dead last in the NFL with a 110.0 QB rating against, and they just got their first INT of the season last week (thanks, Paxton Lynch!) Derek Carr is also running out of healthy and available targets, something Eli can sympathize with, so if disaster strikes and the Giants somehow get a lead, there's no guarantee Carr will be able to dig them out of that hole.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYG offense: 15.6 PPG (31st), 91.3 rushing yds/gm (26th), 219.2 passing yds/gm (26th), 26 sacks allowed (T-16th), 13 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 OAK offense: 20.5 PPG (21st), 91.0 rushing yds/gm (27th), 246.3 passing yds/gm (15th), 17 sacks allowed (6th), 16 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 NYG defense: 24.3 PPG allowed (23rd), 131.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 268.6 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 20 sacks (T-26th), 13 turnovers (T-24th)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.7 PPG allowed (T-19th), 108.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 254.9 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 19 sacks (T-28th), seven turnovers (32nd)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NYG, 32nd against WR2s (plus 48.1 percent DVOA), fifth against RBs (minus 23.4 percent DVOA); OAK, 31st against WR1s (plus 31.1 percent DVOA), 31st against other WRs (plus 43.7 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, NYG: LB Jonathan Casillas (neck/wrist, out), DT Damon Harrison (elbow, questionable), CB Eli Apple (hip, questionable); OAK, WR Amari Cooper (concussion, out), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (hip, questionable), LB Cory James (knee, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Orleans Darkwa racks up 110 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Sterling Shepard and Travis Rudolph. Marshawn Lynch bulls his way for a season-high 80 yards and a score. Carr throws for 260 yards and two TDs, both to Jared Cook. Raiders, 27-24

Carolina (+4.5) at New Orleans, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The week's showcase game gives the Panthers a chance to overtake the Saints for first place in the NFC South. Carolina's won four straight, if not always in the most convincing fashion, while New Orleans just had their long winning streak snapped by the Rams. The Panthers will need a better effort from Cam Newton than they got against the Jets, or for that matter back in Week 3, if they're going to avoid a series sweep, but it's impossible to predict which version of Cam will show up any given week. Working in his favor are all the injuries in the Saints' secondary, but after watching him complete less than 40 percent of his passes last Sunday, who he's facing is the least of his worries.

The Skinny:
•2017 CAR offense: 22.5 PPG (16th), 129.2 rushing yds/gm (5th), 219.7 passing yds/gm (25th), 26 sacks allowed (T-16th), 16 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 NO offense: 29.3 PPG (4th), 142.1 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 275.4 passing yds/gm (2nd), 13 sacks allowed (3rd), 11 turnovers (5th)
•2017 CAR defense: 18.8 PPG allowed (8th), 83.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 222.4 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 32 sacks (T-4th), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 NO defense: 20.2 PPG allowed (12th), 112.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 240.9 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 31 sacks (T-7th), 14 turnovers (T-19th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 CAR, average score CAR 27-NO 27, average margin of victory 11 points. Prior to NO's 34-13 win in Week 3, the previous four games in the series had been decided by five points or less.
•Key injuries, CAR: RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder, questionable), TE Greg Olsen (foot, questionable), LB Thomas Davis (hamstring, questionable), LB Shaq Thompson (foot, questionable); NO: S Marcus Williams (groin, out), CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: McCaffrey picks up 70 combined yards. Newton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Kaelin Clay while running in a score himself. Mark Ingram gains 60 yards and a touchdown, while Alvin Kamara gets held to 50 combined yards. Drew Brees throws for 260 yards and TDs to Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn. Saints, 24-20

L.A. Rams at Arizona (+7), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Rams remain the class of the NFC West, but with the Seahawks breathing down their necks and having already won the first meeting back in Week 5, Jared Goff and the boys can't afford to let up now. While Sean McVay's offense understandably gets most of the attention, Wade Phillips' defense has crept into the top 10 in points allowed. The Cardinals, well, aren't, and while their performance this season has been admirable under the circumstances, this shouldn't be a competitive game. It is a division game, though, and Arizona won't have forgotten the 33-0 pasting they got from the Rams in Week 7. Crazier things have happened. Recently, even. Like, say, a two-TD game for Ricky Seals-Jones.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAR offense: 29.9 PPG (2nd), 117.5 rushing yds/gm (9th), 273.6 passing yds/gm (T-7th), 19 sacks allowed (T-7th), 14 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 ARI offense: 18.5 PPG (24th), 72.8 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 274.2 passing yds/gm (5th), 29 sacks allowed (22nd), 18 turnovers (25th)
•2017 LAR defense: 18.7 PPG allowed (7th), 123.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 230.5 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 31 sacks (T-7th), 19 turnovers (T-5th)
•2017 ARI defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (25th), 100.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 248.8 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 27 sacks (16th), 14 turnovers (T-19th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 LAR, average score ARI 20-LAR 17, average margin of victory 16 points.
•Key injuries, LAR: WR Robert Woods (shoulder, out); ARI: RB Adrian Peterson (neck, questionable), WR John Brown (toe, out), LB Deone Bucannon (ankle, out), NT Corey Peters (ankle, out)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Todd Gurley thunders for 140 combined yards and two TDs. Goff throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Sammy Watkins. Kerwynn Williams gets the start but only manages 40 yards. Blaine Gabbert throws for 270 yards and TDs to D.J. Foster and J.J. NelsonRams, 27-23

Philadelphia at Seattle (+6), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The scary thing about the Eagles is that, relative to the rest of the NFL, they seem to be getting better. Their one loss was to a Chiefs team that looks very different than it did back in Week 2. Their average margin of victory in their first five wins was 10 points. In the last five? Twenty-three points and change, including three straight by four converted touchdowns. They've even had luck on their side, not only avoiding devastating injuries so far, but catching teams like the Cowboys at their worst, and their trip to Seattle doesn't look as dangerous as it would've if Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor were in the lineup for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is doing what he can to keep his team in contention for a division title, or at least a wild-card berth, but even he can't drag them across the finish line by himself.

The Skinny:
•2017 PHI offense: 31.9 PPG (1st), 147.5 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 246.6 passing yds/gm (14th), 25 sacks allowed (T-12th), 13 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 SEA offense: 24.2 PPG (10th), 102.9 rushing yds/gm (19th), 275.0 passing yds/gm (3rd), 26 sacks allowed (T-16th), 12 turnovers (6th)
•2017 PHI defense: 17.4 PPG allowed (3rd), 65.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 245.8 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 31 sacks (T-7th), 22 turnovers (3rd)
•2017 SEA defense: 19.3 PPG allowed (9th), 98.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 231.8 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 29 sacks (T-14th), 17 turnovers (T-10th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: PHI, seventh against WR1s (minus 22.5 percent DVOA), first against WR2s (minus 50.0 percent DVOA), sixth against other WRs (minus 20.6 percent DVOA); SEA, 31st against WR2s (plus 34.4 percent DVOA), second against other Wrs (minus 30.4 percent DVOA), third against RBs (minus 27.1 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, SEA: TE Jimmy Graham (ankle, questionable), LB Bobby Wagner (hamstring, questionable), S Kam Chancellor (neck, out), S Earl Thomas (heel, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jay Ajayi emerges with 80 yards, but LeGarrette Blount vultures a TD. Carson Wentz throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. Mike Davis leads the SEA backfield with 50 yards. Wilson throws for 290 yards and TDs to Graham and Doug Baldwin. Eagles, 31-20

Washington at Dallas (+1.5), 45.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Kirk Cousins continues his push for a Stafford-sized contract in the offseason, but at 5-6 a playoff berth for Washington might be asking a little too much of him, even if the team wins out. Jamison Crowder has stepped up as his top target with Jordan Reed perpetually sidelined, seeing 42 targets over his last four games and turning them into 412 yards and a TD, while Samaje Perine has been doing a fair impression of vintage Alfred Morris in the backfield. You can't quite say the same about the real deal since he's replaced Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys, but Morris' 4.9 YPC over his three starts says the Dallas running game hasn't been the team's problem. Plus, this will be his first chance at a real revenge game, for what that's worth. Instead, a defense that apparently can't function without Sean Lee and a Dak Prescott who's forgotten how to quarterback have pretty much sunk their season, even if they get their act together in this one.

The Skinny:
•2017 WAS offense: 23.5 PPG (T-12th), 104.4 rushing yds/gm (18th), 276.2 passing yds/gm (2nd), 31 sacks allowed (T-23rd), 16 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 DAL offense: 22.5 PPG (T-15th), 134.8 rushing yds/gm (4th), 210.9 passing yds/gm (28th), 24 sacks allowed (T-11th), 16 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 WAS defense: 25.1 PPG allowed (25th), 111.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 250.4 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 28 sacks (T-14th), 16 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 DAL defense: 24.5 PPG allowed (24th), 112.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 257.3 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 28 sacks (T-14th), 12 turnovers (25th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DAL, average score DAL 27-WAS 24, average margin of victory nine points.
•Kirk Cousins career stats versus DAL, six games: 1-5, 68.2 percent completion rate, 278.0 passing yds/gm, 10:3 TD:INT, 7.6 YPA, 100.0 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Perine bangs out 70 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 310 yards and TDs to Vernon Davis and Josh Doctson, with Crowder pulling in 120 yards. Morris explodes for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Prescott throws for 220 yards, and hits Terrance Williams for one score while running in another one. Cowboys, 31-27

Last week's record: 11-5, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-8-1 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 109-67, 77-91-8 ATS, 80-92-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS