NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 10

Miami (+9) at Carolina, 40.0 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Kenyan Drake did his best to settle the question of who Miami's starting RB would be, topping 100 combined yards last week despite only 15 touches. Jay Cutler also had his most productive game of the season, so that all counts as progress for what has been the most moribund offense in the league through the first half. The Panthers' defense, rather than Cam Newton, has carried Carolina – three times this season they've held the opposition to a single field goal – and Luke Kuechly looks 100 percent healthy again, so their best may be yet to come.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIA offense: 14.5 PPG (32nd), 77.6 rushing yds/gm (30th), 208.8 passing yds/gm (28th), 17 sacks allowed (T-11th), 11 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 CAR offense: 18.7 PPG (24th), 109.1 rushing yds/gm (15th), 221.7 passing yds/gm (25th), 23 sacks allowed (T-19th), 16 turnovers (30th)
•2017 MIA defense: 22.4 PPG allowed (T-16th), 94.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 233.4 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 16 sacks (T-23rd), eight turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 CAR defense: 17.7 PPG allowed (4th), 78.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 214.0 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 29 sacks (2nd), eight turnovers (T-26th)
•Jay Cutler career stats against CAR, four games: 2-2, 67.5 percent completion rate, 187.3 passing yds/gm, 4:5 TD:INT, 6.6 YPA, 79.2 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Drake's runnin' with his woes, managing only 60 combined yards. Cutler throws for 200 yards and a TD to DeVante Parker but gets picked off twice. Christian McCaffrey picks up 80 combined yards. Newton throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel, while running in a score of his own. Panthers, 27-10

Green Bay (+5.5) at Chicago, 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: As with so many teams, you can pretty much toss the Packers' statistics out the window due to the talent the team's lost to injury. The offense is averaging less than 15 points a game with Brett Hundley at the helm, while the defense has allowed more than 26 a game during that same period since they can't get off the field. Mitch Trubisky is still being kept under very tight wraps, though, and the Bears are content to ride Jordan Howard and their reasonably solid defense while playing close, low-scoring games and occasionally stealing one.

The Skinny:
•2017 GB offense: 22.6 PPG (T-11th), 98.6 rushing yds/gm (T-21st), 234.3 passing yds/gm (19th), 27 sacks allowed (28th), nine turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 CHI offense: 16.8 PPG (27th), 130.1 rushing yds/gm (6th), 175.5 passing yds/gm (32nd), 19 sacks allowed (T-14th), 15 turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 GB defense: 23.9 PPG allowed (22nd), 118.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 252.8 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 13 sacks (T-28th), 14 turnovers (9th)
•2017 CHI defense: 21.4 PPG allowed (13th), 104.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 225.6 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 23 sacks (T-10th), 11 turnovers (T-17th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 GB, average score GB 30-CHI 18, average margin of victory 13 points.
•Key injuries, GB: S Morgan Burnett (groin, out), LB Nick Perry (foot, questionable), LB Ahmad Brooks (back, questionable), LB Joe Thomas (ankle, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, 11 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones picks up 40 yards, while Ty Montgomery adds 30. Hundley throws for less than 200 yards and hits Davante Adams for a score. Howard pounds out 100 yards and a TD. Trubisky also throws for less than 200 yards, but does toss a touchdown to Tarik Cohen and run one in himself. Bears, 21-10

Cleveland (+12) at Detroit, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: DeShone Kizer managed not to throw a pick against the Vikings before the Browns' bye – the first time all season he'd accomplished that feat – and that was enough of a sign of progress to earn him another start. I'm still not entirely convinced the Browns have a good run defense, as their strong statistical performance on the ground could just be a result of teams throwing against them whenever they want – they're 31st in QB rating allowed – but regardless, running the ball is something Detroit doesn't bother to do much of anyway, and stopping it the only thing the Browns do well (maybe). If you don't think that's a strong enough indicator of a blowout, consider that Matthew Stafford's played only two games in his career against Cleveland, and has nine TD passes. Nine!

The Skinny:
•2017 CLE offense: 14.9 PPG (31st), 95.1 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 222.8 passing yds/gm (24th), 23 sacks allowed (T-19th), 21 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 DET offense: 25.8 PPG (T-8th), 79.9 rushing yds/gm (29th), 276.5 passing yds/gm (6th), 26 sacks allowed (T-25th), 10 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 CLE defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (28th), 84.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 241.9 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 16 sacks (T-23rd), nine turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 DET defense: 23.3 PPG allowed (20th), 89.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 265.4 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 16 sacks (T-23rd), 16 turnovers (T-3rd)
•Matthew Stafford career stats versus CLE, two games: 2-0, 59.3 percent completion rate, 335.0 passing yds/gm, 9:3 TD:INT, 7.8 YPA, 104.3 QB rating.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: CLE, 32nd against WR1s (plus 48.8 percent DVOA), second against WR2s (minus 39.5 percent DVOA), 30th against TEs (plus 27.1 percent DVOA); DET, fifth against WR1s (minus 28.7 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (plus 32.1 percent DVOA), third against RBs (minus 33.1 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Isaiah Crowell leads the Browns' backfield with 60 yards. Kizer throws for 210 yards and a TD to David Njoku but gets picked off twice. Ameer Andullah only manages 50 yards, but Theo Riddick picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Stafford throws for 330 yards and three more TDs, hitting Golden Tate twice (who tops 100 yards) and Eric Ebron once. Lions, 34-13

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's sometimes easy to forget just how small the sample sizes are when looking at NFL performances and trying to find trends in them. For instance, it's become Conventional Wisdom that Ben Roethlisberger struggles on the road, and yet here he is with a road QB rating of 88.1 this season (compared to 75.1 at home), and the Steelers are 4-1 away from Heinz Field. Is that just a fluke? It's entirely possible, but the previous "fact" that he wasn't good on the road was really only based on the last three seasons, which isn't a whole lot bigger of a sample. In 2012 and 2013, Ben's home/road splits were pretty much identical. Whether it's a mirage, though, the Colts don't seem like the team to burst that bubble, having just chased their best cornerback out of town and with T.Y. Hilton, their only real threat on offense, at less than 100 percent.

The Skinny:
•2017 PIT offense: 20.9 PPG (20th), 108.9 rushing yds/gm (17th), 263.3 passing yds/gm (10th), 10 sacks allowed (T-2nd), 12 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 IND offense: 18.0 PPG (25th), 98.7 rushing yds/gm (20th), 230.9 passing yds/gm (20th), 36 sacks allowed (32nd), 11 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 PIT defense: 16.4 PPG allowed (2nd), 106.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 203.6 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 26 sacks (T-4th), 11 turnovers (T-17th)
•2017 IND defense: 28.9 PPG allowed (32nd), 113.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 293.1 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 18 sacks (T-19th), 13 turnovers (T-10th)
•Roethlisberger career stats against IND, six games: 4-2, 70.3 percent completion rate, 314.0 passing yds/gm, 15:6 TD:INT, 8.9 YPA, 109.5 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Le'Veon Bell explodes for 160 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Roethlisberger throws for 270 yards and two additional touchdowns to Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Frank Gore gets his usual 40 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for 220 yards and a score to Marlon Mack. Steelers, 37-13

L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at Jacksonville, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's kind of fascinating how wide the gap has become between Melvin Gordon's fantasy value and real-life value. The last two years, he's averaged about 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown per game, but his 3.96 YPC is mediocre at best and hasn't cracked the top 25 in either season. The Jags might not be the soft touch against the run they were in the first half, either. With Marcell Dareus anchoring the middle of their D-line, they held the Bengals to just 29 yards rushing last week. Granted, it was the Bengals, and Joe Mixon did score, but it was still an encouraging start for a defense that really only had one weakness.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAC offense: 18.8 PPG (T-22nd), 88.9 rushing yds/gm (25th), 253.5 passing yds/gm (13th), 11 sacks allowed (T-6th), eight turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 JAC offense: 25.8 PPG (T-8th), 166.5 rushing yds/gm (1st), 207.1 passing yds/gm (29th), 11 sacks allowed (T-6th), nine turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 LAC defense: 19.0 PPG allowed (T-7th), 135.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 222.8 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 26 sacks (T-4th), nine turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 JAC defense: 14.6 PPG allowed (1st), 124.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 183.8 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 35 sacks (1st), 16 turnovers (T-3rd)
•Philip Rivers career stats against JAC, seven games: 6-1, 71.2 percent completion rate, 353.2 passing yds/gm, 19:4 TD:INT, 9.3 YPA, 120.3 QB rating.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: LAC, fifth against WR2s (minus 27.6 percent DVOA); JAC, second against WR1s (minus 60.4 percent DVOA), fifth against RBs (minus 28.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gordon gets held to 70 combined yards, but does score. Rivers throws for 200 yards and a TD to Hunter Henry. Leonard Fournette returns to the lineup with 150 yards and two touchdowns. Blake Bortles throws for 230 yards and a TD to Keelan Cole. Jalen Ramsey ices the game with a pick-six in the fourth quarter. Jaguars, 31-17

New Orleans at Buffalo (+3), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Saints just keep winning, racking up six consecutive wins, but they get a tough test here against one of only two teams left in the NFL who are undefeated at home. (The Eagles, incidentally, are the other, and also the only team with a longer winning streak than N'Awlins at seven games.) Drew Brees' volume is off – he's on pace for "only" 4,400 passing yards and 26 TDs – but his 8.1 YPA is his highest since 2011, so he's hardly slumping. Kelvin Benjamin should make his Bills debut Sunday, but his impact could be minimal receiving targets from a QB who attempts fewer than 30 passes a game.

The Skinny:
•2017 NO offense: 27.6 PPG (6th), 122.8 rushing yds/gm (7th), 276.8 passing yds/gm (5th), eight sacks allowed (1st), nine turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 BUF offense: 21.8 PPG (16th), 116.9 rushing yds/gm (11th), 203.5 passing yds/gm (30th), 26 sacks allowed (T-25th), six turnovers (3rd)
•2017 NO defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (T-9th), 116.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 229.9 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 23 sacks (T-10th), 12 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 BUF defense: 18.6 PPG allowed (T-5th), 94.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 260.1 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 14 sacks (27th), 17 turnovers (2nd)
•Brees career stats versus BUF, four games: 3-1, 69.2 percent completion rate, 247.8 passing yds/gm, 9:0 TD:INT, 8.3 YPA, 119.1 QB rating
•LeSean McCoy 2017 home splits, four games: 93.3 rushing yds/gm, 4.3 YPC, three TDs, 5.8 catches on 6.8 targets for 37.5 receiving yds/gm
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mark Ingram gets held to 60 yards, but Alvin Kamara catches a TD pass. Brees throws for 250 yards and a second score to Michael Thomas. McCoy slashes for 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Tyrod Taylor throws for 230 yards and a TD to Jordan Matthews. Bills, 23-20

N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay (+2.5), 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Jets just keep on Jetsing, stomping the Bills at home after losing three consecutive, but your guess is as good as mine which version of the team shows up this weekend. (Actually, yours is probably better: I'm 5-4 straight up in NYJ games this year, but 2-5-2 ATS and a ridiculous 1-8 on the over/under.) They'll be without Matt Forte, but the Bucs will be without Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, which is a win for Gang Green. Then again, that does give Ryan Fitzpatrick a shot at a revenge game.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYJ offense: 21.2 PPG (18th), 106.7 rushing yds/gm (18th), 223.4 passing yds/gm (23rd), 26 sacks allowed (T-25th), 14 turnovers (T-24th)
•2017 TB offense: 19.8 PPG (21st|), 81.9 rushing yds/gm (28th), 284.8 passing yds/gm (3rd), 17 sacks allowed (T-11th), 13 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 NYJ defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (18th), 121.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 246.3 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 18 sacks (T-19th), 16 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 TB defense: 24.8 PPG allowed (T-25th), 116.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 278.6 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), eight sacks (32nd), 12 turnovers (T-12th)
•Key absences, NYJ: RB Matt Forte (knee, out), CB Morris Claiborne (foot, questionable), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (toe, questionable); TB: QB Jameis Winston (shoulder, out), WR Mike Evans (suspension, out), DE Robert Ayers (ankle, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 14 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bilal Powell piles up 100 combined yards and a TD, while Elijah McGuire adds a receiving touchdown. Josh McCown throws for 260 yards and a second score to Robby Anderson. Doug Martin bounces back with 60 yards and a touchdown. Fitzpatrick rekindles some Fitzmagic, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to DeSean Jackson and Charles Sims. Buccaneers, 27-24

Minnesota at Washington (+1), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: There doesn't appear to be much standing between the Vikings and an NFC North title, but they'll need to stay sharp to avoid letting the Lions back into the race. Teddy Bridgewater is back at practice, but he's at least a few weeks away from threatening Case Keenum's hold on the starting QB job given his lengthy layoff. As for Washington, it's been on the mediocrity kiddie coaster all season, never winning or losing more than two games in a row. Kirk Cousins has stayed productive despite getting little help from his receiving corps, but there's only so long he can continue milking Chris Thompson before defenses scheme to remove him from the equation.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIN offense: 22.4 PPG (13th), 120.0 rushing yds/gm (9th, 249.0 passing yds/gm (14th), 10 sacks allowed (T-2nd), eight turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 WAS offense: 22.1 PPG (14th), 98.6 rushing yds/gm (T-21st), 268.4 passing yds/gm (9th), 22 sacks allowed (18th), 14 turnovers (T-24th)
•2017 MIN defense: 16.9 PPG allowed (3rd), 81.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 222.1 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 24 sacks (9th), 10 turnovers (21st)
•2017 WAS defense: 24.3 PPG allowed (24th), 110.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 244.0 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 22 sacks (T-13th), 12 turnovers (T-12th)
•Key injuries, WAS: TE Jordan Reed (hamstring, questionable), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring, questionable), LB Zach Brown (ankle, questionable), four-fifths of their starting offensive line (various, all questionable)
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jerick McKinnon gains 80 combined yards, while Latavius Murray adds 50 yards and a TD. Keenum throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Kyle Rudolph. Thompson leads the WAS backfield with 50 combined yards. Cousins throws for 250 yards and a TD to Josh Doctson. Vikings, 20-16

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Tennessee, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: I'm still not sure how A.J. Green avoided a suspension after attempting to slap a really sloppy rear naked choke on Jalen Ramsey last week, but I guess the NFL's disciplinary big wigs don't watch much UFC, so he gets to suit up for this one. His frustration is understandable, given how badly the whole team has played this season. The Titans are somehow tied for first in the AFC South, and with Corey Davis healthy again their offense could become a little less one-dimensional in the second half. Don't expect miracles from the rookie, though.

The Skinny:
•2017 CIN offense: 16.1 PPG (T-28th), 72.3 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 217.4 passing yds/gm (26th), 24 sacks allowed (T-21st), 15 turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 TEN offense: 22.6 PPG (T-11th), 117.9 rushing yds/gm (10th), 210.1 passing yds/gm (27th), 16 sacks allowed (10th), 11 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 CIN defense: 19.8 PPG allowed (11th), 116.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 208.5 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 22 sacks (T-13th), six turnovers (T-30th)
•2017 TEN defense: 24.1 PPG allowed (23rd), 96.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 244.6 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 13 sacks (T-28th), 12 turnovers (T-12th)
•Key injuries, CIN: RB Jeremy Hill (ankle, out), LB Kevin Minter (elbow, out), S Shawn Williams (hamstring, doubtful); TEN: TE Delanie Walker (ankle, questionable)
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, 12 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon picks up 70 combined yards and a TD. Andy Dalton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Green. DeMarco Murray runs for 80 yards and a score. Marcus Mariota throws for 250 yards and a TD to Davis while running in a touchdown of his own. Titans, 24-17

Houston (+12) at L.A. Rams, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Bill O'Brien continues to express the utmost confidence in Tom Savage as his quarterback, but O'Brien also thought Savage was the best choice to start in Week 1, so take his opinion on the matter with an entire mine full of salt. Only one team all season has held the Rams to less than 20 points, and that was the Seahawks with a relatively healthy secondary. A Texans defense that won't have J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing available doesn't seem like it'll be the second.

The Skinny:
•2017 HOU offense: 28.6 PPG (3rd), 132.8 rushing yds/gm (4th), 247.5 passing yds/gm (15th), 28 sacks allowed (T-29th), 13 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 LAR offense: 32.9 PPG (1st), 131.9 rushing yds/gm (5th), 258.8 passing yds/gm (11th), 10 sacks allowed (T-2nd), 12 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 HOU defense: 26.0 PPG allowed (30th), 96.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 258.5 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 20 sacks (16th), 12 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 LAR defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (T-9th), 121.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 223.6 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 25 sacks (T-6th), 15 turnovers (T-7th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: HOU, 30th against WR2s (plus 40.1 percent DVOA), 29th against other WRs (plus 28.5 percent DVOA), fourth against RBs (minus 29.4 percent DVOA); LAR, first against WR2s (minus 49.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lamar Miller manages 70 yards. Savage throws for 220 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins but gets picked off twice. Todd Gurley runs for 110 yards and a touchdown. Jared Goff throws for 270 yards and TDs to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Rams, 30-13

Dallas (+3) at Atlanta, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Well, the Cowboys' offensive line finally gets its chance to prove that they can make any running back look like a million bucks, as Ezekiel Elliott has run out of legal options to delay his suspension. Alfred Morris figures to start, but Darren McFadden and even Rod Smith could get touches too. A Falcons defense allowing 4.2 yards per carry figures to be a good opponent to ease into things against. Their offense shockingly remains a sore spot, though, averaging just 16.6 points per game in losing four of their last five. Devonta Freeman saw fewer than 15 touches a game over that stretch, while Julio Jones got 8.4 targets a game. Who the heck has the ball been going to, if not those two?

The Skinny:
•2017 DAL offense: 28.3 PPG (4th), 148.1 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 227.5 passing yds/gm (T-21st), 10 sacks allowed (T-2nd), eight turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 ATL offense: 21.3 PPG (17th), 114.5 rushing yds/gm (13th), 269.6 passing yds/gm (8th), 14 sacks allowed (T-8th), 10 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DAL defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (15th), 101.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 251.6 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 27 sacks (3rd), 11 turnovers (T-17th)
•2017 ATL defense: 21.5 PPG allowed (14th), 114.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 224.5 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 18 sacks (T-19th), six turnovers (T-30th)
•Matt Ryan career stats versus DAL, three games: 2-1, 63.8 percent completion rate, 275.0 passing yds/gm, 4:2 TD:INT, 7.9 YPA, 92.8 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: McFadden leads the DAL backfield with 80 combined yards, but Morris punches in a TD. Dak Prescott throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Jason Witten and Brice Butler. Freeman piles up 130 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Julio, and puts together a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Falcons 23-21

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (+2.5), 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: I'm not even a Giants fan, and I'm angry at the way they just rolled over last week. You'd think a team that was supposed to be built around its defense would see some house-cleaning after giving up 51 points on its own turf, but apparently not. Looking at the talent disparity between these two teams on paper, NYG should be able to storm into Levi's Stadium and take this one easily, but I have a hard time believing this team is capable of being on the plus side of a laugher now. C.J. Beathard remains under center for the Niners, but at some point Jimmy Garoppolo has to get his chance. Of course, even if he does, he'll have no one to throw to with Pierre Garcon now done for the year, but San Fran will take any ray of hope it can find.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYG offense: 16.1 PPG (T-28th), 86.8 rushing yds/gm (27th), 227.5 passing yds/gm (T-21st), 19 sacks allowed (T-14th), 10 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 SF offense: 15.9 PPG (30th), 92.1 rushing yds/gm (24th), 242.9 passing yds/gm (17th), 32 sacks allowed (31st), 14 turnovers (T-24th)
•2017 NYG defense: 25.9 PPG allowed (29th), 125.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 274.4 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 13 sacks (T-28th), seven turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 SF defense: 26.6 PPG allowed (31st), 135.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 256.7 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 17 sacks (22nd), 11 turnovers (T-17th)
•Eli Manning career stats versus SF, seven games: 5-2, 59.5 percent completion rate, 254.7 passing yds/gm, 11:9 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 79.7 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NYG, 31st against WR2s (plus 43.7 percent DVOA); SF, first against TEs (minus 31.8 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 31.1 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Orleans Darkwa gallops for 90 yards and a score. Manning throws for 270 yards and TDs to Sterling Shepard and Shane Vereen. Carlos Hyde gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Beathard struggles in the first half and gets replaced by Jimmy G, who finds Aldrick Robinson and Garrett Celek in the end zone to lead the improbable comeback. 49ers, 27-24

New England at Denver (+7.5), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Last week's loss by the Bills restored the natural order in the AFC East, and the Patriots are back on top of the division. Their defense is also starting to get its act together, holding four straight opponents to 17 points or less (and, not coincidentally, winning all four), and now Martellus Bennett is back in the fold after getting dumped to the curb by the Packers. Anybody want to bet against them getting back to the Super Bowl? Anyone? Bueller? Brock Osweiler did about what everyone expected against the Eagles, and it's only a matter of time before the Paxton Lynch Era begins in Denver, for better or worse.

The Skinny:
•2017 NE offense: 27.0 PPG (7th), 109.0 rushing yds/gm (16th), 317.6 passing yds/gm (1st), 21 sacks allowed (17th), five turnovers (2nd)
•2017 DEN offense: 18.8 PPG (T-22nd), 112.4 rushing yds/gm (14th), 236.9 passing yds/gm (18th), 28 sacks allowed (T-29th), 19 turnovers (31st)
•2017 NE defense: 22.4 PPG allowed (T-16th), 121.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 309.3 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 16 sacks (T-23rd), nine turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 DEN defense: 24.8 PPG allowed (T-25th), 88.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 204.9 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 19 sacks (T-17th), seven turnovers (T-28th)
•Tom Brady career road stats versus DEN, 10 games: 3-4 in the regular season, 0-3 in the postseason. 56.7 percent completion rate, 278.3 passing yds/gm, 16:9 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA. The last time he threw an INT in a regular-season game in Denver was in 2003.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NE, 30th against WR1s (plus 37.5 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (plus 26.9 percent DVOA); DEN, third against WR1s (minus 37.6 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dion Lewis leads the Patriots' backfield with 60 combined yards. Brady throws for 230 yards and TDs to Rob Gronkowski and Phillip Dorsett. C.J. Anderson collects 70 yards and a touchdown. Osweiler throws for 210 yards and a TD to Devontae Booker. Patriots, 20-14

Seattle at Arizona (+6), 41.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Home teams on Thursdays this year are 4-5 straight up but 6-3 against the spread, so the smart, conservative thing for me to do here would be to predict a close Hawks victory. As if. Seattle should be hulk-smash angry after last week's loss to Washington, while Arizona still has Drew Stanton under center. Sure, Adrian Peterson's volume has been impressive, but his 4.2 yards per carry as a Cardinal isn't exactly elite, even if the same can be said for the Seahawks' run defense this season.

The Skinny:
•2017 SEA offense: 23.6 PPG (10th), 103.9 rushing yds/gm (19th), 288.1 passing yds/gm (2nd), 18 sacks allowed (13th), nine turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 ARI offense: 17.4 PPG (26th), 76.4 rushing yds/gm (31st), 280.6 passing yds/gm (4th), 24 sacks allowed (T-21st), 13 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 SEA defense: 18.6 PPG allowed (T-5th), 109.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 232.9 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 23 sacks (T-9th), 14 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 ARI defense: 25.1 PPG allowed (27th), 100.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 263.6 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 18 sacks (T-18th), nine turnovers (T-22nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 SEA, average score SEA 28-ARI 15, average margin of victory 17 points. All of SEA's wins have been by 12 points or more, including three by more than four converted touchdowns, while all four of their losses have been by seven points or less.
•Russell Wilson career stats versus ARI, 10 games: 5-4-1, 59.4 percent completion rate, 220.6 passing yds/gm, 17:4 TD:INT, 7.4 YPA, 95.8 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Thomas Rawls grinds out 70 yards. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Doug Baldwin, who also pulls down 130 yards, and one to Tyler Lockett. Peterson runs for 90 yards and a score. Stanton throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to John Brown but gets picked off twice. Seahawks, 30-14

Last week's record: 8-5, 6-6-1 ATS, 5-7-1 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 78-54, 57-70-5 ATS, 64-65-3 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS