NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee, 43.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: Remember way back in 2015 when, even though the Jags stank, Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson were still money? Good times. Bortles is on pace for his third straight season with a sub-60 percent completion rate, poor by modern NFL standards, but his TD rate has dropped by over a third (5.8 percent to 3.8 percent) and he hasn't managed 300 passing yards in any of his last four games, despite facing the Bears (16th in passing yards allowed per game), the Colts (25th) and the Raiders (dead last) during that stretch. If you can't put up pinball numbers against Oakland's secondary, something is very, very wrong. Bortles' struggles have taken their toll on the production of all the team's receivers, but Robinson's had the biggest fall. He's on pace for 789 yards and eight TDs, about half what anyone who invested in him at the draft table was expecting to get, but that's not even the worst part. The really terrifying thing for the Jacksonville passing game is that they've already squandered the soft part of their schedule. Aside from a Week 11 game in Detroit, none of their next eight games comes against a particularly vulnerable pass defense, and that stretch includes four matchups against teams in the top four in passing yards allowed (the Vikings, Broncos, and two against the Texans) and five games against teams at the top of the league in fewest TD passes allowed (those four, plus a road game against the Bills). Given how offensive coordinators have been dropping like flies this season, it's kind of amazing Greg Olsen still has a job in Jacksonville, really. The Titans did just give up 353 yards and three TDs to Andrew Luck, but getting those kind of numbers out of Bortles right now seems about as likely as Roger Goodell reinstating Justin Blackmon. ... Given the success of all the rookie QBs this season, it's easy to view Marcus Mariota's sophomore development so far as something of a disappointment. His per-game numbers are pretty flat compared to his rookie campaign, and for every week in which he's the hero, Mariota will turn right around and wear goat horns the next. If the rest of the team around him were better, the coach staff could simply funnel the offense through DeMarco Murray and let Mariota pick his spots but, unfortunately for Tennessee, they aren't there yet. Their young QB is still put in situations where everything is on his shoulders a little too often. That's less likely to be the case this week though. The Jags' run defense is mediocre at best, sitting in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game (109.8) and rushing TDs allowed (seven), so Murray should be able to continue the pace that has seen him average a 23-100-1 line on the ground over the past five weeks. ... Preseason darling and regular season bust Tajae Sharpe had one of his better performances last week against the Colts, but is now dealing with a knee injury. The Titans' secondary is also battered, with corner Perrish Cox (concussion) and safety Rashad Johnson (neck) both out Thursday. Julius Thomas (ankle) is questionable for the Jags.

Predictions: Chris Ivory ekes out 40 yards, but does score. Bortles manages 260 yards and touchdowns to Robinson and Marqise Lee. Murray tears it up for 130 combined yards and a TD, while Mariota is held to 210 yards and a score to Rishard Matthews, but he does lead a fourth quarter drive for the winning field goal. Titans, 23-21

Washington (+3) at Cincinnati, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 am EDT

Comments: At this point, it almost appears as though Matt Jones' entire career hinges on his ability to hang onto the dang ball. In his last three games without a fumble, Jones is averaging 17 carries, 104 rushing yards and a TD. In his last three games with a fumble, that drops to 14 carries, 41 yards and zero TDs. Did I mention that those are actually his last six games? Jones has been alternating scoring or fumbling since Week 2, and the inconsistency drove Jay Gruden to hand lead back duties over to Chris Thompson last week after Jones' latest bout of the dropsies. Thompson responded with 113 combined yards on 19 touches, while even Rob Kelley snuck in a receiving TD with Butterfingers on the bench. Jones still looks the part of a bell cow RB, and ball security is a skill that can be learned, but until he does so Washington's backfield could be in timeshare limbo. The Bengals have been pretty bad against the run this year though, sitting 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (118.4) and 25th in YPC allowed (4.6), so whoever gets even a plurality of the carries for Washington might be able to crack out decent numbers. ... So far this season, the Bengals have looked like the NFL's doormen, keeping riff raff like the Browns, Dolphins and Jets out of the VIP winner's lounge but letting teams like the Patriots, Broncos and even the Cowboys stroll right past them. Andy Dalton's overall numbers have been mostly outstanding, but only eight passing TDs through seven games is far from elite, and he's already been sacked more times in 2016 than he was in 13 games last year. Getting Tyler Eifert healthy should help in both areas, giving him a reliable red zone target and quick outlet to beat the pass rush, but Washington's only allowed one TD to tight ends this year and sits in the top 10 in sacks with 19 on the season, so Eifert alone isn't going to kickstart the Bengals' offense. ... Jordan Reed (concussion) has yet to be cleared to play but he did get cleared to travel with the team to London, which is a good sign for his availability Sunday morning. Jones (knee), DeSean Jackson (hamstring/shoulder), Vernon Davis (groin) and Jamison Crowder (groin) are also on the mend, which could leave some big holes in Washington's offense this weekend. Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) is the only notable Bengal on their injury report.

Predictions: Thompson leads the Washington backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD, while Kirk Cousins throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Reed and Pierre Garcon. Jeremy Hill rumbles for 80 yards and a score, with Giovani Bernard also adding 70 combined yards and a TD. Dalton throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, both to A.J. Green. Bengals 28-24

Kansas City at Indianapolis (+2.5), 50 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Well, so much for the cavalry. Jamaal Charles' return from offseason knee surgery continues to have complications, and after seeing just two snaps and one carry last week against the Saints, there's no guarantee he'll even get onto the field Sunday against the Colts. Fortunately, Spencer Ware has proven he can handle backfield duties just fine, and an Indy defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (118.6 per game) and 28th in YPC allowed (4.7) is capable of making any RB look like a superstar, but Charles' inability to get back to 100 percent still counts as a tough blow to a team that's built its offensive identity around its ground game. ... I should have known better than to think the Titans would beat the Colts last week (they've won 10 straight now over Tennessee), but the AFC South is such a mire of mediocrity that it's hard to believe one team can actually dominate another over a long stretch of time. The win might give Andrew Luck's boys some momentum, but momentum has been a dirty word for the Colts this season – they're been alternating wins and losses since Week 2. The Chiefs' pass defense could also present a tough challenge for Luck, as they sit ninth in QB rating against (84.1) and lead the league with 10 interceptions, but they're also tied with the Steelers with just eight sacks on the year, last in the NFL. If they can't put pressure on Luck, he has the weapons to pick apart their secondary, especially with Donte Moncrief (shoulder) and Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) both apparently poised to return to action. ... Dwayne Allen (ankle) remains out for Indy, while their front seven will be missing Kendall Langford (knee) and Henry Anderson (knee). Other than Charles, the Chiefs head into the game relatively healthy.

Predictions: Ware rushes for 110 yards and a TD, while Charcandrick West also adds 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Alex Smith throws for 240 yards and a second score to Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill also returns a kickoff for a TD. Frank Gore grinds out 70 yards. Luck throws for 280 yards and three TDs, two to T.Y. Hilton and one to Moncrief. Chiefs, 31-27

Arizona (+3) at Carolina, 48 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: I have to admit, I did a double-take when I initially looked at this spread. Sure, the Panthers' stats don't necessarily reflect their record, but they've also earned every one of their five losses so far and their problems don't seem like the kind of thing a bye week will solve. Rating them as essentially equal to the Cardinals on a neutral field seems, oh wait, right, the Cards haven't looked a whole lot better. Arizona's beaten up on also-rans this year but wilted against real competition before last week's tie against Seattle, which at least showed that they can avoid losing to the NFL's better squads. Still, the idea of Carolina being favorites against anyone right now seems weird. Even if Cam Newton's fully recovered from his concussion, he's facing a defense that sits second in QB rating against (68.1), has nearly twice as many INTs as TD passes allowed (5:9 TD:INT), and is tied for fourth in the league with 20 sacks. That doesn't suggest a splashy return to form is in the cards (cough) for Cam. ... Arizona's offense has been considered one of the aerial elite ever since Bruce Arians came to the desert, but circumstances may be forcing the team into a more ground-oriented attack. For one thing, Carson Palmer is playing through a hamstring injury. For another, they're running out of healthy receivers, with Michael Floyd and John Brown both nursing strained hammies of their own and Jaron Brown now out for the season with a torn ACL. Most importantly though, no one can stop David Johnson. Even in last week's ugly 6-6 tie, he ripped the Seahawks for 171 yards from scrimmage, and he's averaging a ridiculous 97 rushing yards and 46 receiving yards a game to go along with eight TDs in seven games. Carolina's run defense has been stout – seventh in rushing yards allowed per game at 89.5, third in YPC allowed at 3.3 – but that merely puts them in the company of the Seattle defense DJ just torched. Until someone demonstrates that they can slow Johnson down, there's no reason to think it can be done. ... Other than their receiving corps, the Cardinals report no major injuries. The Panthers are also fairly healthy, with rookie cornerback James Bradberry (foot) potentially ready to return after missing two games.

Predictions: Johnson does his thing, racking up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Palmer throws for 270 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Jonathan Stewart rushes for 60 yards, while Newton runs for 40 yards plus a score and throws for 220 yards and a TD to Devin Funchess. Cardinals, 23-20

Oakland (+1) at Tampa Bay, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Someone explain to me how the Raiders are 5-2 and on top of the AFC West, because I don't get it. Derek Carr's minimized his mistakes at least, but his 6.8 YPA is pretty lousy, and Oakland's running game has been inconsistent thanks to Latavius Murray's toe injury. On the other side of the ball, their defense has been borderline terrible – they're the only team in the NFL allowing more than 300 passing yards a game, and one of only three teams allowing five yards a carry or more. A generous schedule is the biggest factor in their success so far (they've lost the only two games they've played against teams with winning records), and things get a lot rockier for them after their Week 10 bye (or rather, right before it, as they host the Broncos in Week 9), so if you're looking for a team to fall on their face in the second half, look no further than the Raiders. This tilt against the 3-3 Bucs is their last chance to pad their win total and try to coast into a wild card spot on fumes. ... Doug Martin and Charles Sims? 201 rushing yards between them so far this season. Jacquizz Rodgers? 255 rushing yards in two games. Sure, why not. Rodgers' emergence has not only led Tampa to two straight wins, it's taken some pressure off Jameis Winston to make things happen and force some passes into tight coverage. Winston had a 4.5 percent INT rate through the Bucs' first four games, but just a 1.7 percent rate in the two games with Rodgers as the lead back. Chances are his rate moving forward will be somewhere between those two figures, but given the team's lack of reliable targets beyond Mike Evans, getting some balance from the running game is crucial for their success going forward. Expect Martin to get all the time he needs to heal up his hamstring, at least as long as Rodgers is doing his Barry Sanders impression. ... The Bucs' front seven remains banged up with Gerald McCoy (calf) and Robert Ayers (ankle) questionable and Clinton McDonald (hamstring) ruled out. The Raiders' injuries are only depth issues.

Predictions: Murray gains 80 yards and a TD. Carr throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Michael Crabtree. Rodgers doesn't break 100 rushing yards again, but still picks up 110 combined yards. Winston throws for 320 yards and three TDs, one each to Evans, Cecil Shorts and Cameron Brate, while Evans pulls down 130 yards. Buccaneers, 27-20

Seattle at New Orleans (+2.5), 48 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Last week's tie with Arizona was uglier than the one you bought your dad for Christmas that time, but that's what happens when two heavyweight defenses slug it out. That won't a problem for the Seahawks' offense this week. The Saints have allowed a league-high 11 rushing TDs, and the ease with which other teams cross the goal line on the ground is the only reason their 8.0 YPA allowed (27th) hasn't resulted in more passing TDs. Jimmy Graham also hasn't had a chance to put together a proper revenge game against his former club. All signs point to Seattle scoring all the points this week that they didn't score last week, with interest. ... Of course, they might need them. Drew Brees and crew has scored 35.7 points a game at home this season, and while the 'Hawks have only allowed 10.7 points a game on the road, stifling the Rams or Jets (or even a beat-up Cardinals offense) isn't quite the same as putting the clamps on the Saints. The emergence of Michael Thomas as the big, physical complement to Brandin Cooks has the whole unit firing on all cylinders again, so while Seattle's pass defense sits fourth in QB rating against (76.2) and has given up a league-low four passing TDs, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if that number doubled by the time this one was over. ... Dannell Ellerbe (quad) could return to action and bolster New Orleans' linebacking corps this week. Kam Chancellor (groin) and Michael Bennett (knee) remain out for the Seahawks, while Tyler Lockett is dealing with a thigh injury.

Predictions: Christine Michael bashes out 90 yards and two TDs, while Russell Wilson throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to Graham and one to Jermaine Kearse. Mark Ingram manages 60 yards. Brees has a huge day despite the opposition, throwing for 370 yards and four touchdowns, one each to Cooks, Thomas, Coby Fleener and Travaris Cadet, with Cooks and Thomas each topping 100 yards. Seahawks, 38-34

Detroit (+2.5) at Houston, 45 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Lions have been getting frisky lately, winning three straight at home thanks largely to a remarkable run of efficient play from Matthew Stafford. I mean, a 70.6 percent completion rate and 8:0 TD:INT in those three games looks more like Tom Brady's line than Stafford's typical production. That run could come to a screeching halt Sunday, though. The Texans sit eighth in QB rating against at 81.4 and are undefeated in their own building. ... Detroit, meanwhile, sits dead last in QB rating against at 117.3, but it's fair to wonder if Brock Osweiler is even capable of taking advantage. His season high so far is 269 passing yards, and last week's game was the first this season in which he didn't throw an INT. The Lions managed to make Case Keenum look like a star a couple of weeks ago though, so this could be Osweiler's best chance to post numbers that actually make him look like he's worth his contract. ... Osweiler may have to step up, as Lamar Miller will be a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. Jadeveon Clowney (elbow) and Quintin Demps (calf) are also questionable for Houston. Remarkably, Detroit's backfield is just about fully healthy, which means there's no real way to tell how touches will be split up between Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington, Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, or even which of them will be active. Darius Slay (hamstring) is out while Nevin Lawson (foot) is questionable, leaving the Lions very thin at cornerback. Eric Ebron (knee/ankle) practiced this week but may not be ready for action quite yet.

Predictions: Riddick leads the Lions backfield with 70 combined yards. Stafford throws for 240 yards and a TD to Golden Tate, but gets picked off twice. Miller sits, and Alfred Blue picks up 80 yards and a touchdown in his place. Osweiler has his best game of the season, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Texans, 27-10

New England at Buffalo (+6.5), 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Tom Brady may not have been on the field when these two teams last met, but he probably took that shutout loss personally anyway, because he seems to be taking everything personally. Since returning from his suspension three games ago, Brady's just been humiliating the opposition, posting an absurd 9.9 YPA to go along with a 75.2 percent completion rate and 8:0 TD:INT. Basically right now, it's a surprise when Brady throws the ball and it doesn't immediately produce at least a first down. Buffalo's pass defense has been excellent (79.7 QB rating against, seventh in the league, and a league-low four passing TDs allowed), but they've lost four straight at home to the Pats by an average score of 38-26, and they weren't facing the Hulk Smash version of Brady in those games. ... New England's pass defense has been nearly as good as Buffalo's, sitting 11th in QB rating against (87.6), but they face a bit less of a challenge than their counterparts. Tyrod Taylor is averaging just 192.5 passing yards a game over the last four weeks, although he's been efficient (8:0 TD:INT), and the Bills are having trouble finding healthy WRs for him to throw to. Titans castoff Justin Hunter, who couldn't catch on with the Dolphins this preseason, has shown some glimmers the last couple of games, but still has only three catches for 55 yards on seven targets to show for it. With LeSean McCoy (hamstring) probably out of the lineup (for real this time!) though, someone will need to step up if Buffalo's going to get any points at all. ... Mike Gillislee (foot), Charles Clay (knee) and Robert Woods (foot) could all play through injuries Sunday for the Bills. Julian Edelman (foot) and Martellus Bennett (ankle) are in the same boat for the Patriots.

Predictions: LeGarrette Blount gouges out 80 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 270 yards and TDs to Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. Jonathan Williams ends up leading the Bills' backfield with 40 yards. Taylor throws for 160 yards and gets picked off twice without finding the end zone. Patriots, 34-6

NY Jets at Cleveland (+2.5), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Apparently, all Ryan Fitzpatrick needed was a one-quarter benching to get his head screwed back on straight. Unfortunately, that may have come too late to save the Jets' season. Already at 2-5 and with both their games against the Patriots coming after their bye, there doesn't appear to be much hope of another second-half surge to a playoff spot. The Browns aren't really good at anything on the defensive side of the ball (league-worst 18 passing TDs allowed, 31st in YPA allowed at 8.6, 31st in rushing yards allowed per game at 139.9) though, so if Fitzpatrick can just stay out of his own way, the Jets should be fine this week, at least. ... Cody Kessler is out with a concussion, so Cleveland will turn back to Josh McCown at QB, who's now recovered from the shoulder injury that put Kessler under center in the first place. Nobody is likely happier with that switch than Gary Barnidge, who thrived last year with McCown getting him the ball but has been a huge disappointment in 2016. The Jets have also struggled at times containing tight ends, so if you've held onto Barnidge all this time, your patience may finally pay off. ... Cleveland's secondary could get a boost with the return of Joe Haden (groin). Buster Skrine (knee) likely won't play for the Jets, while Darron Lee (ankle) will miss his second straight game and Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) may not be ready to return either.

Predictions: Matt Forte racks up 120 combined yards and scores. Fitzgerald falls back into old habits, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa but getting picked off twice. Isaiah Crowell gets held to 40 yards, but Duke Johnson produces 70 combined yards. McCown throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Barnidge and Andrew Hawkins. Nick Folk misses a late field goal as Cleveland finally gets their first win. Browns, 23-21

San Diego (+5) at Denver, 44 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: Sure, the Chargers beat the Broncos in San Diego, and then they beat the Falcons in Atlanta, but they still aren't going to beat the Broncos in Denver. Are they? Joey Bosa has juiced the Bolts' pass rush, and C.J. Anderson's knee injury does create some uncertainty in Denver's backfield, although Devontae Booker should be able to step in without the team missing a beat. If Booker struggles in his first start though, we could be headed for another low-scoring game set up for the Cardiac Chargers to steal. ... One thing Denver did do last time the two teams met was keep Melvin Gordon out of the end zone, a feat no other club has managed this season. He now has a phenomenal 10 touchdowns in seven games (eight rushing, two receiving) and while his 3.3 YPC remains bad, all the injuries on the Chargers' offense basically force them to keep Gordon heavily involved. In fact, Gordon's accounted for 29.1 percent of the Chargers' points this season, which isn't far off Josh Lambo's 35.0 percent. It seems unsustainable, but again, who else is going to score for San Diego? ... Speaking of which, Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams will both attempt to play through knee injuries, while Hunter Henry has yet to be cleared from his concussion. The Broncos' offense is fairly healthy aside from Anderson, but DeMarcus Ware (forearm), Aqib Talib (back) and Brandon Marshall (hamstring) could all be out Sunday.

Predictions: Gordon picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Philip Rivers throws for 200 yards and a second score to Dontrelle Inman. Booker gets 100 combined yards and a touchdown in his first NFL start, but Trevor Siemian throws for just 180 yards and a TD to Virgil Green. Broncos, 20-17

Green Bay (+3) at Atlanta, 53 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: This is no slight against Ty Montgomery, but the Packers installing him as their new starting running back seems like an act of desperation rather than a careful plan. The offense did come somewhat to life last week against the Bears with Montgomery getting nine carries (and 13 targets), but if any team knows how to handle pass-catching RBs you'd think it would be the Falcons, what with facing them every day in practice and all. Think again. Football Outsiders has the Atlanta defense ranked 28th against pass-catching RBs, and they've even had trouble containing the likes of Fozzy Whittaker this season. Desperation or no, the Montgomery experiment isn't likely to falter Sunday afternoon. ... Tevin Coleman's hamstring injury leaves Devonta Freeman back in his feature role from last season, but Coleman picked a lousy time to drop out of the picture. The Packers run defense remains first in the league in YPC allowed (3.1), rushing yards allowed per game (71.8) and rushing TDs allowed (a mere one) even after getting rag-dolled by Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago, and the Falcons' offensive line isn't in that class, although they have been good. Atlanta will just have to rely on Matt Ryan again, which isn't a bad guy to rely on considering he has yet to post a YPA of less than 8.0 in any game this season. ... Randall Cobb and Clay Matthews are both nursing hamstring injuries for Green Bay, while Jared Cook (ankle) remains out. Other than Coleman, Atlanta won't be missing any key pieces.

Predictions: Montgomery picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Knile Davis makes his mark with a long TD run. Aaron Rodgers throws for 300 yards and two other scores, hitting Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Freeman is held to 60 combined yards, but does score. Ryan throws for 330 yards and four touchdowns, two to Julio Jones (who hauls in 140 yards) and one each to Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy. Falcons, 35-31

Philadelphia (+4.5) at Dallas, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Eagles got some of their swagger back last week, handing the Vikings their first loss and staying just one game back of the Cowboys in the NFC East, but they've looked like a very different team on the road this year, and a front seven that's giving up a 4.5 YPC (24th in the league) could have a very long night against a well-rested Ezekiel Elliott. The media will be mostly focused on the rookie QB battle between Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, but unless Philly can find a way to slow down the bulldozer that has been the Dallas running game so far, it doesn't much matter what Wentz does when he finally gets on the field after another relentless, clock-chewing, soul-crushing drive by the Cowboys. ... Of course, Dallas needs the offense to chew up as much clock as possible, because on a per-play basis their defense is just not good. Their 4.4 YPC allowed (21st) is just a notch better than Philly's, their pass rush produces vague suggestions rather than sustained pressure (11 sacks, 24th in the league) and, just like last year, they can't get off the field on third down (45.1 percent opposition conversion rate, 28th in the league). The only reason they're seventh in points per game allowed (17.8) is the fact that Elliott and the offensive line keep the defense off the field – the Cowboys sit atop the NFL with a 33:08 average time of possession. If the Eagles can find a way to disrupt that formula, things could unravel quickly for Dallas. ... Dez Bryant (knee) is expected to make his return for the 'Boys, as might cornerbacks Orlando Scandrick (hamstring) and Morris Claiborne (concussion). DT Bennie Logan (groin) is out for Philadelphia, which could be a bigger loss than it looks at first glance given the run-heavy opposition.

Predictions: Ryan Matthews picks up 80 combined yards and scores, while Wendell Smallwood also adds a TD. Wentz throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Zach Ertz. Elliott doesn't slow down, rushing for 120 yards and two TDs, while Prescott throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Terrance Williams. A late Wentz pick seals the win for Dallas. Cowboys, 27-24

Minnesota at Chicago (+6), 40.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Well, you didn't really think a team with Sam Bradford at QB was going to go undefeated, did you? The Vikings dropped their first game of the season last week on the road against a feisty Eagles squad, but the 1-6 Bears should provide a little less resistance. Jay Cutler will be back in the lineup for Chicago after recovering from a thumb injury, but that's not necessarily a point in the Bears' favor, especially considering that Minnesota is first in the league in QB rating against (63.7). Having Cutler under center might improve Alshon Jeffery's outlook a little at least, as he couldn't seem to find much chemistry with Brian Hoyer, but this is not a cushy return to the starting gig for Cutler. ... Both backfields could be in flux this week. Jerick McKinnon (ankle) is out for Minensota, which leaves Matt Asiata in line to start but could also open the door for Ronnie Hillman to see significant snaps after he lost six yards on his only carry in his Vikings debut last week. Whoops. The Bears aren't great against the run, so who gets those carries with McKinnon out could prove to be a fantasy windfall. ... As for the Chicago RBs, Ka'Deem Carey has worked his way into a timeshare with Jordan Howard, but Jeremy Langford (ankle) could be in the mix as well after getting hurt back in Week 3. Minnesota sits third in rushing yards allowed per game (81.7) though, so all three should be considered "break glass in case of emergency" fantasy starters this week

Predictions: Asiata pounds his way to 90 yards and two touchdowns, while Hillman picks up 60 yards and a score of his own. Bradford doesn't need to do much, but still throws for 180 yards and a TD to Stefon Diggs. Carey leads the Bears' backfield with 40 rushing yards. Cutler throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Jeffery in his return to action, but also gets picked off three times. Vikings, 31-7

Last week's record: 9-5-1, 8-7 ATS, 10-5 o/u
2016 regular season record: 61-45-1, 48-55-4 ATS, 53-52-2 o/u