NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Houston at New England (+1), 40.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: You can't say that the Texans have gotten their money's worth out of Brock Osweiler so far (a 79.2 QB rating, 7.3 YPA and 3:3 TD:INT aren't exactly elite), not for that matter Lamar Miller (still looking for his first TD of 2016), but the team is 2-0 so no one's complaining. In fact, Houston's formula for success has looked much like the one used by the team Osweiler left behind in the offseason, as its defense has led the way. J.J. Watt "only" has 1.5 of the team's NFL-leading nine sacks and is still not quite 100 percent healthy after offseason back surgery, but with Jadaveon Clowney finally becoming a factor on the other side of the line, the Texans' front seven should be terrorizing opposition QBs all season. ... The last thing the Patriots want to see is a nasty pass rush coming their way, as Jimmy Garoppolo is almost certainly out with a shoulder injury, leaving rookie Jacoby Brissett under center backed up by – wait, this can't be right. Julian Edelman? Wow. Does it really matter, though? Bill Belichick could play wildcat with Edelman most of the game and still find a way to make it work. It almost feels sometimes like expecting anything less than the impossible from Belichick means you're underestimating him, but winning this game on a short week, home-field advantage or no, will be a tall order even for a Certified Genius. ... Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) will still be a game-time decision for the Pats, so have your insurance tight ends at the ready. Brian Cushing (knee) is the big absence for the Texans, but the linebacking corps held up last week with Max Bullough in his place.


Predictions: Miller rushes for 70 yards and finally scores. Osweiler throws for 240 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. LeGarrette Blount bangs out 70 yards as well while Brissett has his moments in his first NFL start, throwing for 280 yards and a touchdown to Chris Hogan, but also gets picked off twice. Texans 23-13

Arizona at Buffalo (+4.5), 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Time, as the man said, is a flat circle. In 2015, Larry Fitzgerald started the season with 14 catches for 199 yards and three TDs in his first two games. This year, he has 13 catches for 158 yards and three TDs through his first two games. If the trendline holds he should be poised for a huge game Sunday (in case you've forgotten, last year's Week 3 for Fitz: 9-134-2). The Bills' secondary has also been flailing, allowing a 108.6 QB rating so far that puts them 25th in the league despite facing less-than-elite QBs in Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh, and Ronald Darby's now nursing a hamstring strain too. We've seen this before from a Rob Ryan defense, but it usually takes a while for the chaos and confusion endemic in Ryan's scheme to set in this deeply. I guess having Rob's brother Rex as the top dog helped accelerate the process, especially when Rex can throw the coaches not related to him under the bus when the team struggles. ... On the flip side of the star receiver picture, Sammy Watkins was little more than a decoy last week, and even with extra rest between last Thursday and Sunday he's not likely to be 100 percent healthy for Week 3, either. It's high time we started treating a Jones fracture to a wide receiver the way baseball fantasy players used to treat Tommy John surgery for a pitcher, as the kiss of death for their value in their first year afterward. Tyrod Taylor was able to make some things happen with his other options last week against Darrelle Revis, but good luck trying to heave a ball over Patrick Peterson's head and letting Marquise Goodwin get under it. ... Tyrann Mathieu is slowly getting back up to speed for the Cardinals, but Robert Nkemdiche is now hobbled by an ankle injury, so Arizona's defense may not be at full strength for a while. Considering that they've only allowed 15 points a game so far as it is, that doesn't bode well for the rest of the NFC West.

Predictions: David Johnson racks up 120 combined yards and scores. Carson Palmer has a huge game, throwing for 410 yards and four TDs (one to Fitzgerald, two to Floyd, one to Jaron Brown) with both Fitzgerald and Floyd topping 100 yards. The Ryans get into a shoving match on the sidelines in the second half after Palmer's fourth touchdown pass. LeSean McCoy sees limited touches due to game flow and manages 50 yards, while Taylor throws for 220 yards and runs for 40, but gets picked off twice and finds Robert Woods for his only score. Cardinals, 38-10

Oakland (+1.5) at Tennessee, 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Derek Carr has feasted on the weak defensive sisters in the NFC South so far in 2016, but surprisingly it's the Titans that might bring him back down to earth. Tennessee's allowed just one TD pass through two games and a QB rating of 74.9 against that ranks them sixth on the young season. Granted, they were facing Shaun Hill in one of those games but they stymied Matthew Stafford last week, which is legitimately worth noting given the roll the Lions' passing game had been on going back to the second half of 2015. The Raiders' offense has been lighting it up so far, but the pinball numbers could come to an end Sunday. ... Just as surprising as their defensive performance has been the Titans' pass-oriented offense. Marcus Mariota is on pace for nearly 600 attempts, DeMarco Murray has already set a career high with two receiving TDs and is likewise on pace for career-high receiving numbers, and even Andre Johnson is scraping together some value. While it makes sense to put the ball in the hands of the guy you spent the second overall pick on just a year ago as much as possible, the club's offseason personnel moves certainly seemed to point to a ground and pound attack that would take some pressure off Mariota. Apparently, though, Mariota decided that he was just fine with the pressure, thank you very much. Delanie Walker's hamstring injury could deprive him of his top safety valve Sunday, and Murray's 5.2 YPC would indicate that they could have success running the ball if they wanted to, but it may be time to start re-evaluating the offense Terry Robiskie is employing in his first season as offensive coordinator. Robiskie was a WR coach for a decade with three teams, including coaching Julio Jones in Atlanta for Jones' entire career, prior to getting another shot with the Titans in the O-coordinator role (the last time he held that title was with Cleveland in 2004), so maybe this shouldn't have been all that surprising. ... Other than Walker, Derrick Morgan is also battling a hamstring strain for Tennessee. Starting corner David Amerson is dealing with a concussion for Oakland.

Predictions: Latavius Murray rushes for 70 yards while Carr throws for 240 yards and TDs to Amari Cooper and Clive Walford. Murray picks up 90 combined yards and his first rushing touchdown of the season. Mariota has another strong game, throwing for 260 yards and scores to Tajae Sharpe and Anthony Fasano while running in a TD of his own. Titans, 24-20

Washington (+4.5) at N.Y. Giants, 46 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Kirk Cousins might not be asking anybody if they like that any time soon. Coming off two really, really bad 300-yard passing games, he heads out on the road to try to avoid an 0-3 start. Last year, Washington headed to Met Life Stadium in Week 3, and – stop me if this stat line seems familiar – Cousins threw for 316 yards and a TD but got picked off twice in 32-21 loss. In fact, he was pretty brutal in general away from home in 2015, with his QB rating dropping nearly 30 points (11.70 at home, 87.7 away) and his YPA by nearly a yard and a half (8.4 to 7.0) while throwing nine of his 11 picks outside of FedEx Field. To his credit though, he seems to thrive on desperation. The "You Like That!" game came when Washington was 2-4 and staring into the abyss, and Cousins responded with a huge 31-30 comeback win over the Bucs that kickstarted their push to an NFC East title. ... Last week's anticipated fireworks in the Saints game fizzled, but you can't fault Eli Manning. Manning threw for 368 yards on 41 attempts, but play calling from Ben McAdoo that even Tom Coughlin thinks is too conservative held the offense to a handful of field goals, with the Giants' only TD coming on special teams. Rashad Jennings' injured left hand and wrist could force McAdoo to air it out more (and in more important situations), and Washington's defense has been generous, allowing 32.5 points a game, but this seems like a case of needing to see whether McAdoo can adapt rather than just assuming it'll happen. Odell Beckham, at least, should be fine despite his slow-ish start. He's already had three targets inside the five-yard line, after seeing five looks from in close in his previous 27 career games. ... DeSean Jackson, who's played just 24 games over the last two years, is dealing with a couple of lower body injuries but seems likely to play Sunday barring a setback. Josh Doctson is also limping due to an Achilles strain.

Predictions: Matt Jones rushes for just 40 yards, but Cousins throws for 290 yards and two TDs to Jordan Reed, who hauls in 110 yards. Shane Vereen leads the Giants' backfield with 60 combined yards. Manning gets limited by the play-calling again, throwing for 240 yards and a TD to Beckham before tossing a pick-six to DeAngelo Hall that seals the game. Washington, 24-16

Cleveland (+9.5) at Miami, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Maybe it's not the city of Cleveland. Maybe it's just the Browns. Come Sunday it'll be three QBs in three games for Hue Jackson's bunch, as third-round pick Cody Kessler gets forced into action after Robert Griffin and Josh McCown both went down with shoulder injuries. (Kessler's backup, in case you think they'll go 4-for-4, is now journeyman backup Charlie Whitehurst). The rookie didn't look at all ready in the preseason and oh, by the way, Corey Coleman is out for a month or more with a fractured hand, leaving converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor as Kessler's top target on the outside. If the Dolphins' defense is available for streaming purposes, quit wasting time reading this and pick them up off waivers already. This one could get ugly. ... After a weak showing in Week 1, Miami's passing game looked more like the kind of thing people expected from an Adam Gase-coached team against the Patriots last week, as Ryan Tannehill fired up 387 yards and two scores. The big difference might have been the availability of DeVante Parker. He still may not be 100 percent healthy, but after missing the opener he played 60 snaps and turned 13 targets into eight catches for 106 yards. The second-year WR has elite measurables, and if he can play Demaryius Thomas to Jarvis Landry's Emmanuel Sanders, the Dolphins' offense should be able to keep rolling. The Browns' secondary hasn't been terrible (no secondary with Joe Haden can be) but they'll be put to the test in this one, especially with Arian Foster (groin) all but ruled out Sunday. ... All the issues with the Browns' offense could be good news or really bad news for Isaiah Crowell on the heels of his Week 2 breakout. It's good news that he'll be the focal point of the offense, but it's bad news that the Dolphins have no reason not to stack the box and dare Kessler to beat them. Miami has allowed a lot of rushing yards through the first two weeks, if you're looking for upside with Crowell, but that's mainly been a result of game flow as their 3.9 YPC allowed is middle of the pack.

Predictions: Crowell managed just 60 yards. Kessler is downright awful, throwing for 140 yards and getting picked off three times. Jay Ajayi rushes for 90 yards and a score while Kenyan Drake also breaks off a long TD run. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Parker, who tops 100 yards again, and Jordan Cameron. Dolphins, 37-3

Baltimore at Jacksonville (+1), 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: If Javorius Allen is inactive again this week, we'll have to assume he ran over coach John Harbaugh's dog or something. Justin Forsett has been terrible through two games, managing just a 3.3 YPC, but Terrance West has somehow been even worse with a 3.2 YPC. Allen cannot possibly be worse than that duo, but it might also be past time to start pointing some fingers at the offensive line. It's a unit that does well in pass protection, but the Ravens' team YPC last year was just 3.9 (24th in the league) running behind essentially the same group. Maybe a healthy Kenneth Dixon can revitalize Baltimore's ground game, but Allen at least deserves a shot. (This message brought to you by the Association of Fantasy Owners Stubbornly Still Using a Bench Spot on Javorius Allen. Make Javorius Allen Great Again!) ... Coming into the year I expected the Jags to pass less thanks to improved play from their young defense, but so far that's been very, very far from the case. In fact, Blake Bortles is on pace for more attempts and more yards than he had last year, but the weird part of all that volume is that it doesn't seem to be going to Allen Robinson. Robinson's barely gotten a sniff in the red zone, and it seems odd not to throw to a guy who scores 14 TDs last year. Greg Olson (no relation to the Panthers tight end) was their offensive coordinator last year, so that can't be it. I'm chalking this one up to random variance for now, but it's a trend worth keeping an eye on. ... Chris Ivory started practicing this week on a limited basis, but since the Jags won't tell anybody what's wrong with him it's impossible to predict when he might actually suit up for a game.

Predictions: Forsett leads the Ravens' backfield with a paltry 40 yards. Joe Flacco throws for 310 yards and TDs to Breshad Perriman and Dennis Pitta. T.J. Yeldon runs for 70 yards but it's Denard Robinson who scores. Bortles minimizes his mistakes, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns, two to Robinson and one to Marqise Lee. Jaguars, 31-20

Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay, 48 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: I've always thought Week 2 was the hardest one to read of any season (and my record last week certainly bears that out). The problem is the difficulty in interpreting the tiny trickle of data we get in Week 1. It's far too easy to draw the wrong conclusions from each data point, to think "Hey, this offense looks good!" when a month later it's becomes clear that no, the defense it faced was just really bad. Even getting a second data point in Week 2 doesn't really help much. The Lions are a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Their offense looked great in Week 1 against the Colts, but terrible in Week 2 against the Titans. Is Tennessee's defense a lot better than expected, or is it just that Indy didn't have enough talent in its secondary to enact the game plan the rest of the league figured out in the offseason to counter Jim Bob Cooter's scheme? A matchup in Green Bay might not provide much clarity on that front either. They've been mediocre at best (their 8.7 YPA against is 25th) and their defense is almost as banged up as the Colts', with Clay Matthews (ankle), Sam Shields (concussion) and Morgan Burnett (groin) all questionable for Sunday. ... Jordy Nelson may be back, but Aaron Rodgers isn't. His passing numbers through two weeks are abysmal given expectations, and only a couple rushing TDs have saved his fantasy value. He's also not getting much help from his offensive line again – after being sacked 46 times in 2015 he's already been brought down six times this year, a 48-sack pace. The Lions' pass defense has been worse than the Packers' (already six TDs allowed through the air), but memories of that ridiculous Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers on Thursday Night Football last December certainly give them plenty of bulletin board material. ... While Green Bay's defense is far from healthy, Detroit isn't in much better shape. DeAndre Levy (quad) and Kyle Van Noy (calf) will leave the linebacking corps thin if they can't suit up, while Ezekiel Ansah is out with a high ankle sprain. Ameer Abdullah landed on IR with a foot injury, leaving the backfield in the hands of Theo Riddick and rookie Dwayne Washington, while Eric Ebron also picked up a back injury and missed practice Wednesday. Collecting injuries is something of a hobby of his, though.

Predictions: Washington leads the Lions with 60 rushing yards and a TD, while Riddick adds 50 combined yards. Matthew Stafford throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Marvin Jones and Golden Tate. Eddie Lacy bashes out 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for a season-high 230 yards (wince) and a touchdown to Randall Cobb, but leads the Pack on a late drive to set up a game-winning field goal. Packers, 23-21

Denver (+3) at Cincinnati, 41 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Broncos' defense has picked up where it left off in the Super Bowl last year, but unfortunately so has the offense. Trevor Siemian is pushing the envelope on what qualifies as a game manager, posting a 1:3 TD:INT and a 74.4 QB rating through his first two NFL starts, only one of which came against an NFL-caliber defense. (The other was against the Colts). He gets thrown into deep water with the sharks in his first road start, though, as the Bengals were among the league leaders in INTs in 2015 and already have three through two games this year. ... The Thunder half of Cinci's Thunder-and-Lightning backfield duo hasn't been pulling his weight through two games. Giovani Bernard has been his usual dynamic self as a receiver, but Jeremy Hill's been awful on the ground, managing just a 2.7 YPC. Denver's run defense hasn't looked as stout as it was last season (not that Malik Jackson's defection to the Jags has helped much), so he might have a shot at turning things around this week despite the seemingly tough matchup. But if Hill can't offer more than two yards and a cloud of dust every time he touches the ball, Bernard's workload will start to creep up. ... Both teams have tight end issues. Tyler Eifert (ankle) has begun practicing but his status for Sunday is still uncertain, while Virgil Green (calf) could be a game-time decision. If he can't play, 2015 third-round pick Jeff Heuerman could be an interesting sleeper, though it's hard to expect much from a guy who has yet to take a snap in the NFL.

Predictions: C.J. Anderson picks up 80 combined yards and scores. Siemian throws for just 180 yards and gets picked off twice. Hill grinds out 40 yards while Bernard leads the Bengals' backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD. Andy Dalton throws for 240 yards and hits Tyler Boyd for his first pro touchdown. Bengals, 20-13

Minnesota (+7) at Carolina, 43 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: All of a sudden, the Vikings' offense is completely different than the one everyone expected coming into the year. Adrian Peterson's knee surgery is supposed to have him out until at least December, though given his history of quick recoveries I wouldn't be shocked if he makes it back before Thanksgiving, which leaves the running game in the semi-capable hands of Jerick McKinnon, Matt Asiata and possibly Ronnie Hillman. More important, it leaves the offense reliant on Sam Bradford, who looked sharp in his purple debut last week. Stefon Diggs was the big beneficiary, and he might well be this year's breakout wide receiver now that he has a QB with some arm strength to get him the ball, but Kyle Rudolph should also see a bump in value and a second viable WR from among the mess that is Minnesota's depth chart could also emerge. Adam Thielen seems to be the No. 2 now and Charles Johnson has done little, but keep an eye on Laquan Treadwell's snap count. ... The Panthers will also be without their starting running back, so congrats to everyone who had Week 2 in the When Will Jonathan Stewart Get Hurt? pool. Unlike Minnesota, though, Carolina likely won't change a thing. Fozzy Whittaker looked solid in Stewart's absence against the Niners, but second-year player Cameron Artis-Payne could also see significant touches. Mike Tolbert could also be in the mix too, but it's hard to make an impact as a short-yardage specialist on a team with Can Newton under center. ... This might be the most volatile game on the schedule this week. The over/under suggests a defensive struggle, which isn't an unreasonable expectation considering the relative health and reputation of both defenses plus AP's injury, but if the Vikings open things up they could have success against the Panthers' rookie corners, which in turn could make Newton air it out too. Anything from a low-scoring kicker battle to a Saints-like offensive explosion seems plausible here.

Predictions: McKinnon picks up 80 combined yards and catches a TD pass, while Bradford throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to Diggs. Artis-Payne ends up leading the Panthers' running backs with 60 yards. Newton runs for 50 himself, including a touchdown, and throws for 310 yards and finds Ted Ginn and Greg Olsen in the end zone. Panthers, 27-17

Los Angeles (+5) at Tampa Bay, 42 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: Is Jared Goff ready to take over yet? The Rams played their usual tough game against the Seahawks last week and stole a win, but Keenum's only contribution to the result was to not make a negative impact. The lack of threat from the passing game has hamstrung Todd Gurley's value, and you can't blame his slow start on the quality of the defenses he's faced any more after Fozzy Whittaker hit up the 49ers for 100 yards. If the LA defense can hold opponents to single digits the Rams have a chance, but it's their only one – with Keenum at the helm, the Rams have managed all of nine points in two games. The Galaxy would be happy with that kind of output, but that's the wrong kind of football. ... The Jameis Winston hype train derailed right after it left the station. His 1:4 TD:INT against the Cards neatly mirrored his 4:1 ratio from Week 1 against the woeful Falcons' secondary, and this tilt against the Rams is as close as it's going to get to a soft target for a while – the Bucs face the Broncos at home next week before traveling to Carolina in Week 5. I still think Winston will have good numbers at the end of the season, but don't expect a whole lot of production from him (or Tampa's offense) until after they Week 6 bye, when the schedule gets a lot easier. In fact, I'd recommend putting out some trade feelers over the next couple weeks as his perceived value hits its nadir. The Bucs' schedule over the final stretch of most fantasy seasons, Weeks 13-16: at San Diego, vs. New Orleans, at Dallas, at New Orleans. (They finish by playing host to Carolina in Week 17, but hopefully that's irrelevant for you). ... Doug Martin was another victim of Week 2's running back injury curse, but his hamstring strain is expected to only keep him out for a few weeks. Charles Sims will step into the feature-back role with Jacquizz Rodgers potentially assuming Sims' passing down duties, but even if the Bucs elect to give Sims the bulk of the touches keep your expectations in check. The Rams are among the league leaders in YPC allowed at 3.3.

Predictions: Gurley bashes out a hard 70 yards. Keenum is putrid again, throwing for 180 yards. Sims gains 110 combined yards but Rodgers vultures a receiving TD, while Winston throws for 240 yards and a second score to Mike Evans. Buccaneers, 20-6

San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle, 40 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: Chip Kelly's offense hasn't exactly set the bay on fire. Carlos Hyde is averaging a meager 3.3 YPC, and while Blaine Gabbert is on pace for more yards and TDs than his 16-game pace from 2015's second half, it's coming at the expense of a terrible completion percentage. None of Gabbert's receiving options have thrived either, unless you think Vance McDonald will keep scoring every game on his two or three targets a week. The jury's still out on their defense – there isn't much to read into a unit that stomps on Case Keenum but gets shredded by Cam Newton – but on the offensive side, it doesn't look like the Niners are much better off than they were under Jim Tomsula and Geep Chryst. ... Russell Wilson's ankle injury has turned him into a pure pocket passer, and what we're learning is that he may not be a very good pocket passer. Wilson's mobility is the key to his success as a QB, and without it he floundered last week. Granted, the Rams always seem to find another gear against the Seahawks, but Seattle's passing game simply wasn't good in Week 2. Knee injuries to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett didn't help matters, though both are practicing and should play Sunday. If San Fran's sketchy pass rush can apply any pressure against a porous Seattle offensive line, it could be another long day for Wilson. ... Thomas Rawls (shin) also got hurt last week but isn't practicing, while means Christine Michael likely will handle lead-back duties.

Predictions: Hyde rushes for 50 yards but scores, while Gabbert throws for 230 yards and a TD to Quinton Patton. Michael gashes the Niners for 90 yards. Wilson gets a little more time to operate, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Lockett and Jimmy Graham. Seahawks, 23-14

N.Y. Jets (+3) at Kansas City, 43 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Quincy Enunwa rewarded my faith in him last week, but the whole Jets passing game has looked a little better than expected through the first two games. The Chiefs' passing defense has also looked a little worse than expected, but a correction for both could be coming. Both Brandon Marshall (knee and foot) and Eric Decker (shoulder) are banged up, and those two have received more than 46 percent of Ryan Fitzpatrick's targets. If they can't go or are ineffective, Enunwa can only pick up so much of the slack, and the depth chart behind him is extremely thin. ... Andy Reid is being coy about whether Jamaal Charles will suit up Sunday, but the signs still look good. It's not the best matchup for his return, as the Jets are fifth in rushing yards allowed on a solid 3.8 YPC against, while neither Gio Bernard nor LeSean McCoy could get much going as receivers against them, but a healthy Charles is more dynamic than either of them. Even if he starts, though, Spencer Ware will still probably eat into his touches as Kansas City eases their star back into action slowly. ... In addition to the Jets' top wideouts, their linebacking corps is banged up as well with David Harris (shoulder) and Erin Henderson (foot) both less than 100 percent, though Darrelle Revis (bruised ego and strained confidence) didn't make the list. The Chiefs have no one major on their injury report other than Charles.

Predictions: Matt Forte picks up 60 yards. Fitzpatrick has a quiet game, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Enunwa. Charles sees action, but it's Ware who leads the way with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Alex Smith throws for 240 yards and runs for 40, finding Travis Kelce for a score. Tyreek Hill also returns a kickoff for a touchdown. Chiefs, 24-16

San Diego (+3) at Indianapolis, 52 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: If you told me the Chargers had built a new practice facility on an old Kumeyaay burial ground last year, I'd believe you. Last year's plague of injuries has carried forward into 2016, and the sequel might be even more gruesome as Danny Woodhead joins Keenan Allen on the shelf for the rest of the season. Despite those key losses, though, they just keep scoring points. Melvin Gordon has looked good, Travis Benjamin had a huge Week 2 in Allen's absence, and Philip Rivers' 5:0 TD:INT has come from spreading the ball around effectively. At some point they'll hit a wall if the attrition continues, just as they did last year, but the battered and beleaguered Colts' defense doesn't seem like a unit that will slow them down, even if Vontae Davis (ankle) is able to return to the field. ... Tyrell Williams remains a popular upside pick, especially after last week's TD, but I'll continue to be the pessimist on him. Deep threats tend to have lower catch rates, sure, but Williams has caught just seven of his 17 career targets, including a three-for-six performance last week. He's going to be an extreme feast-or-famine fantasy option. ... A healthy Indy offense should have a chance in a shootout, but Donte Moncrief is out with a fractured shoulder blade, T.Y. Hilton is limping due to a knee injury, and the team continues to limit Andrew Luck's practice reps as they exercise caution with his shoulder. That'll mean plenty of targets for Phillip Dorsett, but Dwayne Allen could also see a bigger role after Julius Thomas had some success against the Chargers last week.

Predictions: Gordon runs all over the Colts for 130 yards and a TD, while Rivers throws for 330 yards and scores to Benjamin and the recently signed Dexter McCluster. Frank Gore grinds out 70 yards. Luck has a huge game in response, throwing for 360 yards and four touchdowns, two to Allen and one each to Dorsett and Quan Bray, with Dorsett hauling in 120 yards. Colts, 34-27

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (+3.5), 46 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Bengals held the Steelers' passing game relatively in check last week, but that just means Antonio Brown didn't beat them and Ben Roethlisberger had a poor completion percentage to go with his three TDs. The Eagles' pass defense has good numbers in the early going, but it's also faced Cleveland and Chicago, who don't exactly pose the kind of challenge through the air Pittsburgh does. Roethlisberger should also get Markus Wheaton back, giving Philly's shaky secondary one more potential headache to worry about. ... The Eagles have their own big franchise QB now, but Roethlisberger's decade-plus more experience still leaves a wide gap between him and Carson Wentz. The rookie has shown some flashes in his first two starts and has yet to throw an INT, but he'll get his first real test this week. Pittsburgh's secondary has given up some yards, mainly due to game flow, but it's only allowed one passing TD and its 79.2 QB rating against puts it in the top 10 on the young season. ... Zach Ertz (ribs) remains out for Philly, but surprisingly it was Trey Burton and not Brent Celek who took on Ertz's pass-catching role. Burton's 49 yards nearly equalled his entire career total in 31 prior NFL games, though, so you might want to see him do it again before you consider picking him up off waivers.

Predictions: DeAngelo Williams doesn't slow down, gaining 120 combined yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Wheaton and Brown, who tops 100 yards. Ryan Mathews picks up 70 yards but gets held out of the end zone, while Wentz throws for 210 yards and scores to Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles. Steelers, 24-23

Chicago (+7) at Dallas, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Jay Cutler's thumb injury puts Brian Hoyer under center for Chicago, which would be bad news for Alshon Jeffery – assuming, that is, he even plays due to his own knee injury. Meanwhile, Kevin White has been nearly invisible, and Jeremy Langford has a 3.0 YPC and is losing touches to both Ka'Deem Carey (who's dealing with his own hanstring injury) and Jordan Howard. In short, anybody even sort of good at moving the ball is hurt or out for the Bears. ... Thankfully, they're playing a Dallas defense that can't really stop anyone when it counts. They did make some plays last week against Kirk Cousins and Washington, but that was more on Cousins than on the likes of Barry Church. The front seven can't generate much pressure, and even Hoyer can find receivers once in a while when he has time to look. In the Cowboys' case, their offense really is their best defense – Scott Linehan's scheme is geared toward ball and clock control, where Dak Prescott gets to make high-percentage passes and Ezekiel Elliott gets a heavy workload, keeping the defense on the sidelines when everything is clicking. ... Prescott's been getting praise for his poise and veteran savvy and intangibles and stuff, which is a polite way of saying he hasn't thrown a TD pass in two games. He also hasn't thrown an INT, though, no mean feat for a rookie, and a Bears defense with more injuries on their defense than their offense (they have five defensive backs on the injury report this week, not including Brandon Boykin on IR) should allow him to keep drawing accolades from color commentators regardless of what he actually does on the field.

Predictions: Langford and Howard each gain 50 yards, while Hoyer throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to White and Zach Miller. Elliott holds onto the ball and piles up his first 100-yard game while adding a score. Prescott is again quietly efficient, throwing for 250 yards and his first two TDs, to Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley. Cowboys, 27-17

Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans, 53.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Last week I went with the contrarian play, correctly predicting the under on the Saints-Giants game (one of the few things I got right), and I'm almost tempted to do it again. Both teams are offense-heavy dome squads prone to shootouts, and the Superdome seems like the perfect place to have another one, but Drew Brees hasn't had great success against the Falcons. Last year, for instance, he threw for 635 yards and two TDs with no INTs in their two meetings, modest production by his standards. His receiving corps behind Brandin Cooks is also a little unsettled. Michael Thomas has been coming on, but Willie Snead's bothered by a toe injury (although the extra day to recover should help) and Coby Fleener hasn't adjusted well to learning a new offensive scheme and catching passes from someone who isn't Andrew Luck. ... Matt Ryan better get his shots in while he can, as Atlanta's next three games are against Carolina, Denver and Seattle, with the latter two coming on the road. They also see the Panthers in Week 16. Selling high on Ryan seems like a really good idea if you can pull it off. Maybe Aaron Rodgers' owner is looking for some insurance. ... There's a bit of a question as to who he'll be throwing to Monday night. Julio Jones will be in the lineup despite a calf injury, but Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Justin Hardy (shoulder) are also less than 100 percent. The Saints' defense is capable of making any receiver look like a star, though, and Ryan still has options like Jacob Tamme, third-round pick Austin Hooper, or whichever member of his backfield duo is getting snaps at the moment.

Predictions: Devonta Freeman leads the Atlanta backfield with 90 combined yards and a TD, while Tevin Coleman also picks up 70 yards. Ryan throws for 290 yards and TDs to Jones and Tamme. Mark Ingram pounds out 130 yards and two touchdowns. Brees throws for 260 yards and TD strikes to Cooks and Thomas. Saints, 31-27

Last week's record: 8-8, 6-10 ATS, 6-9-1 o/u
2016 regular season record: 19-13, 14-17-1 ATS, 16-14-2 o/u