NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Minnesota (+8.5) at Arizona - Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Injuries have really started to pile up for the Vikings' defense, putting their ground-and-pound philosophy in jeopardy despite Adrian Peterson's best efforts. Heading into Thursday, they'll be without defensive tackle Linval Joseph (foot), linebacker Anthony Barr (groin) and safeties Harrison Smith (hamstring) and Andrew Sendejo (knee). The Cardinals' offense is difficult to handle at the best of times, and heading into their stadium with gaping holes at all three levels is far from the best of times. ... Andre Ellington's toe injury will keep him sidelines for at least one more week, leaving the Arizona backfield in the hands of rookie David Johnson once again. Johnson racked up 120 combined yards and a score against the Rams, but also put the ball on the ground once again, his fifth fumble of the season. The Cards have only lost one, but that's still a fairly abysmal record of ball security given that he has just 78 offensive touches on the year. Johnson will remain an elite fantasy option as long as he's starting given the system he's in, and especially this week against a battered Minnesota front seven that is rapidly slipping into the league's bottom 10 against the run, but expect Ellington to get the starting job back the moment he's healthy enough to reclaim it. ... At some point, if they're going to become one of the NFC's genuine threats, the Vikings will need to take the shackles off Teddy Bridgewater. He's shown occasional flashes of his ability this year, particularly when hooking up with Stefon Diggs, but he's also thrown for less than 200 yards in seven of his 12 starts and for more than one TD just once. The Cardinals' defense would be a highly unlikely opponent against which to find a spark, though, ranking third in YPA allowed (6.6), third in interceptions (16) and eighth in pass yardage allowed (227.8 per game).

Predictions: Peterson rebounds somewhat, rushing for 80 yards and a TD. Bridgewater throws for less than 200 yards again, but does find Jerick McKinnon for a score. Johnson busts out for 140 combined yards and two touchdowns, while Carson Palmer throws for 340 yards and TDs to Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald, who both top 100 receiving yards. Cardinals, 31-14

Buffalo at Philadelphia (+1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: If you're going to pull the fluky upset, getting three touchdowns from your defense and special teams (blocked punt return, interception return, punt return) is probably the easiest way to do it. Those aren't exactly points you can rely on every week, though, and they do nothing to help the Eagles' sputtering offense. Sam Bradford threw for a miserable 120 yards in his return from a shoulder injury, and DeMarco Murray is reduced to whining to the owner to try to get some of his touches back. That may not happen any time soon, as Ryan Mathews is close to returning from his concussion and even the rarely-active Kenjon Barner was more effective than Murray out of the backfield last week. Reporters looking for their next narrative have already starter speculating that Murray will get cut in the offseason, cap hit be damned, and head back to Dallas. Whether that actually happens or not probably depends more on whether Chip Kelly is willing to admit signing Murray was a mistake (or is even still around in Philly to admit it). In the short term, the committee approach will continue until morale improves, so don't expect big numbers from any particular Eagles RB, even against a middle-of-the-pack Bills run defense. ... That running game may have to do something in the aggregate, because Bradford will have his hands full with the Bills' secondary. Rookie Ronald Darby's emergence at corner opposite Stephon Gilmore has solidified the back end of the defense, and Buffalo ranks third in the league in completion percentage allowed (58.3 percent) and sixth in YPA allowed (6.8). They're in the bottom 10 in passing TDs given up but hey, you face Tom Brady twice in 12 games and see how you do. They're still doing better than the Eagles, who are only ahead of the dreadful Saints in TD passing allowed with 28 after getting blown up for 13 over the last three games. ... Karlos Williams still isn't practicing for the Bills due to a shoulder injury, so LeSean McCoy should get all the touches he needs to have a proper revenge game against his former club. The Eagles' linebackers have done a good job containing pass-catching backs this season, but McCoy is just as capable of running roughshod over them, and Philly ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game at 124.7.

Predictions: McCoy scampers for 120 combined yards and a TD. Tyrod Taylor joins in the fun against the Eagles' secondary, throwing for 240 yards and two touchdowns to Sammy Watkins, who tops 100 receiving yards. Darren Sproles leads the Eagles backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Bradford throws for 260 yards and a second score to Nelson Agholor but also gives up a pick-six to Darby. Bills, 28-20

Seattle at Baltimore (+6) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Have the Seahawks finally woken up? Since getting their butts handed to them by the Cards, they're 3-0 and just completely dismantled an overmatched Vikings team on Minnesota's home turf. Russell Wilson is making a late MVP charge, posting absolutely ridiculous numbers over Seattle's winning streak: 76.7 completion percentage (66-for-86), 11:0 TD:INT ratio and a 10.2 YPA. It's no coincidence that Wilson's explosion happened after Marshawn Lynch got shut down. Without Beast Mode to rely on, Wilson apparently decided he was going to have to drag the 'Hawks into the playoffs himself, and that's exactly what he's doing. Doug Baldwin's been the biggest recipient of Wilson's bounty (299 yards and five TDs over that three-game winning streak), but Tyler Lockett is also becoming more than just a kick returner, catching 14-of-15 targets for 176 yards. Lynch doesn't appear close to returning, and the Ravens rank 25th in QB rating allowed at 97.4 thanks mostly to a league-low four INTs, so the Wilson train likely will keep rolling Sunday. ... Matt Schaub is officially questionable with a chest injury, but regardless of how banged up he is, he'll be on the field Sunday if only to prevent Baltimore from having to turn to Jimmy Clausen if they can help it. Schaub's thrown multiple picks in both of his starts since Joe Flacco went down, but the Legion of Boom hasn't been its usual opportunistic selves this season, recording almost half of its interceptions on the season in the win over the Steelers. That doesn't mean the Seahawks have been vulnerable through the air -- they've given up a league-low 11 passing TDs -- but they also aren't punishing mistakes the way they have in years past. ... The more interesting battle might be between the rookie RBs. Javorius Allen has 254 combined yards and two receiving touchdowns over the last two games, and while the Seahawks are still tough on the ground (third in rushing yards allowed per game at 87.8) they aren't quite as effective against pass-catching backs. Thomas Rawls, meanwhile, has 391 rushing yards and three TDs over his last three starts, though the Ravens' run defense is no soft touch either (10th in rushing yards allowed per game at 97.5).

Predictions: Rawls pounds out 90 yards and scores for the fourth straight game. Wilson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Lockett and Luke Willson. Allen manages just 60 combined yards, while Schaub starts and throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Crockett Gillmore. Seahawks, 24-7

San Francisco (+1.5) at Cleveland - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Oh look, the Browns are going to let Johnny Manziel play football again. How generous of them. If it weren't for the fact that their previous personnel decisions have been equally inept (see: Gordon, Josh), you'd almost think the way they've jerked him around was a brilliant cover for a tank job to land them a better draft pick (that they, presumably, would then use on his replacement). I'm not excusing Manziel here. Given his track record, even walking by a bar on the team's bye week showed some poor judgment. But it's not like Cleveland's front office should have been blindsided by the fact that he doesn't always make the best life choices, and other teams have put systems in place to help higher-risk players stay out of trouble. The Browns' plan seems to be, "let's invest a high draft pick in a player, then do absolutely nothing to insure that investment." Just brilliant. Anyway, I'm sure that Manziel will take to heart whatever lesson he was supposed to learn from a two-game benching. Also, keep in mind that Travis Benjamin might not play due to a shoulder injury, and Gary Barnidge's three worst games of the season have all come in Manziel starts (although he did catch a touchdown in Manziel's last start, back in Week 10). Even if Johnny Football comes out firing, it's worth wondering who he'll be firing to. ... Blaine Gabbert now has more win in four games as the 49ers starter than he did in his final two seasons (13 starts) for the Jaguars, and as many fourth-quarter comeback wins as he had in his entire Jacksonville tenure. That's not to say he's been good since taking over for Colin Kaepernick, mind you, just that he's been good enough. Then again, how good to you need to be to handle a pass defense that ranks 28th in QB rating allowed (100.5) and is without its one good defensive back, as Joe Haden remains sidelined with a concussion? ... Both teams rank in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed per game (the Niners are 28th at 125.2, and the Browns are 31st at 136.3) and neither one does a good job of containing pass-catching backs, so this could actually be a good spot in which to use Isaiah Crowell and/or Duke Johnson, if you're strapped for backfield options. Shuan Draughn, who's averaged just 45.5 rushing yards but added 5.5 catches in 6.8 targets for 40.8 yards through the air in four games since he took over as the starter for San Francisco, has essentially been Crowell and Johnson rolled into one, which makes him actually useful.

Predictions: Draughn picks up 90 combined yards and scores. Gabbert throws for 220 yards and a TD to Anquan Boldin. Johnson leads the Browns backfield with 70 combined yards, but Crowell scored a rare touchdown. Manziel throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Brian Hartline. Browns, 20-14

Detroit (PK) at St. Louis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Hey, anybody with fantasy shares in Todd Gurley. Wanna read something that will infuriate you? I mean, really make your blood boil? Check this out. Coming out of the Rams' bye, not only was the rookie tearing it up on the ground, he was proving to be a darn useful receiver. In Weeks 7-10, Gurley was targeted 16 times, catching 13 balls for 112 yards. That's a full-season pace of 52 receptions for 448 yards which, while not Matt Forte numbers, certainly makes him a viable dual threat. In the three games since, Gurley's been targeted exactly twice, catching one of them for 11 yards. That's not even the worst of it, though. At first I thought he was just being kept in for pass protection or something, but nope. After seeing a solid 45 snaps against the Ravens three games ago, he's gotten under 30 snaps in each of the last two losses. Seriously, Jeff Fisher? You have exactly one, ONE, player on your offense who's a real threat to the opposition every time he touches the ball, and you aren't doing everything in your power to get it to him? (And don't even come at me with that Tavon Austin nonsense, bro). It's absurd. Maybe Fisher just likes losing, or got so used to it in Tennessee that success seems scary and strange to him now. These stats aren't usually meaningful for running backs, but I'm mid-rant and not thinking clearly, so screw it. Gurley's gotten 20 or more touches in a game six times this year. In those games, the Rams are 3-3. They're 1-5 when he doesn't, and yes I'm including the games at the beginning of the season because as I said, screw it. Fisher fired offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti this week, naming tight ends coach Rob Boras in his place, but I'm not letting him off the hook so easily. Tell me he's banged up and just not being listed on the injury report, or that you're being overly cautious because of his surgically repaired knee. Tell me you're tanking because you decided this was a lost season. But do not tell me you are actively trying to win games when you leave your best weapon standing around on the sidelines under-used. Save that BS for your exit interview in the offseason, buddy. ... Ahem. Anyway, the Lions are playing pretty well and should be on a four-game winning streak if not for the poor officiating and abysmal decision-making by Jim Caldwell against the Packers last week. I mean, why guard against a hail mary with no time on the clock and Aaron Rodgers under center? Gaah. Detroit's run defense has really stiffened over those four games too. After allowing a shocking 14 rushing TDs in their first eight games, they've allowed just two since, and one of those was by Rodgers. Gurley could probably do it if he got a decent workload, but, well, see above. ... Case Keenum is back at QB for the Rams, for whatever that's worth. He didn't look good before he got concussed against the Ravens, but Nick Foles has been dreadful, so they have little to lose. Detroit's pass defense has been really bad this season - they rank 31st in QB rating allowed at 103.5 - but it's hard to see Keenum taking advantage of that. I'm going to set the over/under on quarters he plays before St. Louis turns in despair to third-round rookie Sean Mannion at 9.5.

Predictions:Ameer Abdullah gains 80 combined yards and a TD. Matthew Stafford throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Theo Riddick. Gurley sees more touches and responds with 100 rushing yards and a score, while Keenum throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Jared Cook. Rams, 20-17

Tennessee (+7) at N.Y. Jets - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Titans have finally figured out how to win games consistently. They just need to have Marcus Mariota account for four touchdowns. Unless the rookie is posting ridiculous numbers, though, they've really got no chance. Their pass defense is especially bad, and they now sit 30th in the league in QB rating allowed at 101.6. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 6:0 TD:INT ratio and 7.7 YPA over that last two games, against the teams that rank 21st and 22nd in QB rating against (the Giants and Dolphins). General NFL chaos therefore suggests Fitzpatrick will have a bad game Sunday but, ehh, that's too contrary a play even for me. ... One of the things that helped Mariota light it up last week was the emergence of Dorial Green-Beckham, who had easily his best game as a pro so far. With Kendall Wright nursing sore ribs the Titans could use some consistency from DGB, but the rookie is busting out just in time for Darrelle Revis to return to action from his concussion. Good luck on Revis Island, kid. ... Mike Mularkey stuck to his word and gave David Cobb more work against the Jags, and the result was a 3.1 YPC. Yuck. Antonio Andrews, who's really done nothing to deserve dropping into a timeshare, saw the same number of carries as Cobb and managed a 4.5 YPC. I don't even really buy the "we have to evaluate the young player for the future" argument here, either, because it's not like Andrews is an established grizzled veteran. Neither one is probably going to do much against a Jets defense that's the best in the league against the run (tops in rushing yards allowed per game at 83.5, tops in fewest rushing TDs allowed at two), so the division of labor in the Titans backfield should be purely an academic exercise this week.

Predictions: Andrews rushes for 40 yards, which is more than Cobb can muster. Mariota throws for just under 200 yards and a TD to Harry Douglas, but gets picked off twice. Chris Ivory bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Fitzpatrick throws for 270 yards and three TDs, two to Eric Decker and one to Brandon Marshall, who also pulls down 100 yards. Jets, 37-7

Pittsburgh (+3) at Cincinnati - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: In his four previous seasons as the Bengals' starting QB, Andy Dalton has never swept the Steelers, holding a 2-6 record against them coming into 2015. He's tossed multiple TD passes in four of his last five games but his performance in Week 8's win wasn't exactly stellar either, and he had the benefit then of facing a rusty Ben Roethlisberger in his first game back from a knee injury. That won't be the case here, as Big Ben has been putting up some big numbers over the last month, averaging 383.3 passing yards with a 10:4 TD:INT in his last four games. The Red Ryder BB Gun will need to step up his game if he's going to keep pace. ... Cinci picked off Roethlisberger three times in Week 8, and that might be their best chance of holding serve back at home. The Bengals' defense is one of just a handful in the league not to allow more passing TDs than INTs (the others? The Panthers, the Broncos and, surprisingly, the Falcons) so far, ranking fourth in picks and sixth in TD passes surrendered with 15 of each. ... Both teams have top 10 run defenses, with the Steelers ranking sixth with 90.3 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bengals are ninth at 97.2, and they're tied for second with just four rushing TDs given up. Cinci's a little more vulnerable to pass-catching RBs, though, so DeAngelo Williams could still be productive, Over Roethlisberger's four-game explosion, he's caught 15 passes on 19 targets for 189 yards in addition to his 387 rushing yards.

Predictions: Williams gains 100 combined yards and catches a TD pass. Roethlisberger gets picked off twice but also throws for 310 yards and two more touchdowns, to Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Jeremy Hill leads the Bengals' backfield with 60 yards, while Dalton throws for 270 yards and scores to A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Steelers, 24-23

Indianapolis (PK) at Jacksonville - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Matt Hasselbeck fell back to earth with a decided thud against the Steelers, but if there's one positive to being 40 years old, it's the perspective it gives you on life's setbacks. (Yup, that's it. That's the only positive). He gets a great opportunity to hop back up and into the win column too. The Jaguars are one of the defenses giving up a QB rating high enough that, if you saw it on a thermometer after taking your temperature, you'd probably head to the doctor, ranking 29th in the league at 101.3. At the very least, Hasselbeck should be able to keep the chains moving more effectively than he did last week. ... The last time the two teams met, Allen Hurns had his best game of the season with an 11-116-1 line on 15 targets. He should return to the lineup after missing a game with a thigh injury, giving Blake Bortles his full complement of options again. Those receiving options didn't do the quarterback much good in that Week 4 loss, but the Colts have generally been mediocre to poor against the pass this year, and are tied for 25th in passing TDs allowed with 24. Bortles is only responsible for one of those, but even if Vontae Davis keeps Allen Robinson relatively under wraps again (Robinson was 4-80-0 on 12 targets in the Colts' win), Bortles should do better than that the second time around. ... The Jags' big advantage remains on the ground. T.J. Yeldon out-rushed Frank Gore 105 to 53 in Week 4, although Gore compensated with five catches for 34 yards. The Jaguars are among the league leaders in YPC against at 3.6 (good for third), though their 11 rushing TDs is tied for 26th. Just so long as they keep Gore away from the red zone, they should be fine.

Predictions: Gore picks up 70 combined yards, while Hasselbeck throws for 240 yards and TDs to T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener. Yeldon rushes for 90 yards and a touchdown. Bortles throws for 300 yards and TDs to Hurns and Julius Thomas. Jaguars, 24-17

San Diego (+10) at Kansas City - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: There are only two defenses that rank in the top five in both sacks and interceptions: the Panthers (first and third, respectively) and the Chiefs, who now sit second in INTs with 17 and tied for fifth in sacks with 34. That doesn't bode well for Philip Rivers, who keeps losing receivers and picking up bruises as the season wears on. He's now been sacked 30 times (tied for seventh-most in the league), and the latest casualties among his WR corps are to Steve Johnson (groin) and Dontrelle Inman (neck). Neither has practiced this week, which likely leaves Rivers with Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and, umm, Danny Woodhead? Javontee Herndon? Kansas City held him to under 200 yards and zero TDs just three weeks ago, and his outlook hasn't improved since. This could get ugly, division rivalry or no. ... Andy Reid elected to go with a timeshare after all in his backfield last week, and it didn't really work, although Spencer Ware salvaged his fantasy value with a touchdown. Ware's scored in three straight games and looks like the power back in the arrangement, but West will probably need to get something closer to 20 touches again if he's going to be useful. Whoever totes the rock should like what they see in terms of holes, though, The Chargers' run defense remains abysmal, ranking 26th in yards per game allowed (124.6), 29th in rushing TDs allowed (12) and 30th in YPC allowed (4.7). ... It could be a wet, rainy Sunday afternoon in Kansas City, which would just encourage the Chiefs to run the ball more and make it tougher for the Chargers to mount any sort of comeback through the air. K.C.'s run defense is solid, but not close to the level of their pass defense, so if there was ever a time for Melvin Gordon to justify his draft position, this would be it.

Predictions: Gordon scrapes out 50 yards, but does score his first NFL touchdown. Rivers throws for 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but does find Herndon for a TD. West racks up 100 combined yards and scores while Ware chips in 40 and a touchdown as well. Alex Smith completes the trifecta with a rushing TD of his own, while also throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce. Chiefs, 31-14

Washington (+3) at Chicago - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The rain could hit Chicago as well, but that should only help the Bears wash off the stink of last week's loss to the Niners. Matt Forte got his usual workload again, but Jeremy Langford also stayed involved, although his TD streak ended at four games. As long as the game flow doesn't force John Fox to air it out, he'll likely try to win games in the mud and the trenches with his two stud backs. Washington's 25th in rushing yards allowed per game at 124.2 and 29th in YPC allowed at 4.6, so he'll be picking the right opponent to do it against. ... Washington is coming off their own embarrassing loss Monday, getting the distinction of being the first team to hand a victory to a Cowboys quarterback who wasn't Tony Romo in almost five years (Stephen McGee got a win in Week 17 of 2010). Kirk Cousins contributed his usual single TD pass, something he's done in 10 of 12 games this season, but waited until the game's 59th minute to do it. The Bears have one of the few run defense worse than Washington's, though, ranking 29th in yards per game (127.9) and 31st in YPC against (4.8), so trench warfare is probably looking pretty good to Jay Gruden too. Matt Jones saw 19 touches to Alfred Morris' six last week and he hasn't fumbled in a couple of games, so if you need to roll with one of them, Jones seems like your best bet. ... Chicago is another team that keeps losing receiving weapons. Martellus Bennett's season is over with a rib injury, Marquess Wilson still isn't practicing due to a foot injury, and Zach Miller (ribs) and Eddie Royal (knee) aren't 100 percent either. If Jay Cutler does throw it, his options are pretty much Alshon Jeffery or bust.

Predictions: Jones rumbles for 110 yards and a TD. Cousins throws for under 200 yards and Jordan Reed catches his lone touchdown pass. Forte gains 130 combined yards and a score while Langford bangs out 50 yards and a TD. Cutler throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Jeffery. Bears, 27-17

Atlanta (+7.5) at Carolina - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Predictably, the stumbling Falcons head into Carolina as massive, uhh, wait a minute. (Checks spread). (Re-checks spread). Well, that just don't make no sense. I suppose you could read last week's near miss against the Saints as a sign that cracks are beginning to form in the Panthers' undefeated facade, but I actually view that performance in a completely different light. Cam Newton and his boys got suckered into a shootout with Drew Brees on his home turf and still came away with the victory. That's exactly what I would expect a great team to do when things don't go according to their usual script. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost twice to the Buccaneers in their last five games, and lost the other three games in between too. This is a team supposed to stay within one score of Carolina? Really? Hmmm. ... Over that five-game losing streak, Matt Ryan has an 8:7 TD:INT ratio, which isn't exactly the kind of momentum you want to bring into a game against the only team in the league with more INTs (19) than TD passes allowed (16). Julio Jones is also playing through a knee injury he says is no big deal, even though he's only caught 13 of 24 targets in the last two games for 149 yards and no TDs. Color me skeptical. Jacob Tamme is also battling through a shoulder injury, making Ryan's job even tougher. ... The Falcons' defense has rounded into form, which I guess shouldn't be that surprising given that coach Dan Quinn came from Seattle. They almost match the Panthers in TD:INT ratio at 14:14 and sit seventh in QB rating allowed (83.2), but their Achilles' heel has been a run defense which can't hold the goal line. Their 15 rushing TDs allowed is second-worst, and now they're facing Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. Ulp.

Predictions:Devonta Freeman gains 80 combined yards and catches Ryan's only TD pass, with the quarterback also throwing for 240 yards. Stewart runs for 70 yards and scores, while Newton throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Devin Funchess and runs for 30 more and another score. Panthers, 24-7

New Orleans (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Drew Brees might be trying too hard. Since his absurd seven-TD performance against the Giants, he's thrown for eight more in four games but also been picked off five times, and the Saints are 0-4. The team's awful defense pretty much forces him to try to carry the Saints to victory by himself, though, and that weight will only get heavier down that Mark Ingram is on IR with a shoulder issue. Tim Hightower, rather than C.J. Spiller, could get the extra touches, but neither one is likely to be a strong play against a Bucs front seven that ranks first in the league with a 3.5 YPC against and could get Gerald McCoy (hand) back. Oh, and Brandin Cooks has a concussion too. This one's going to be all on Brees. Again. ... When these two teams met in Week 2, Doug Martin was still a bum who couldn't even get the fifth-year option on his rookie contract picked up. Fast forward a few months, and he's second in the league in rushing yards and facing a Saints defense that's gone rapidly backward since, now ranking last in YPC allowed (4.9) and rushing yards allowed (137.8 per game). Martin rushed for 78 yards in the first game, but he might come close to doubling that Sunday. ... Jameis Winston continues to put up poor numbers at home, and steal wins anyway. The Saints' pass defense hasn't improved at all since Rob Ryan was booted out as defensive coordinator, and their QB rating allowed is an unfathomably bad 116.6. To put how terrible that is in perspective, Aaron Rodgers has the best all-time career QB rating at 105.1. The Saints make the quarterbacks that play against them look noticeably better than Aaron Rodgers.

Predictions: Hightower leads the Saints' backfield with 40 yards. Brees throws for 260 yards and TDs to Marques Colston and Brandon Coleman. Martin busts out for 130 yards and two touchdowns, while Winston throws for 230 yards and a TD to Mike Evans. Buccaneers, 24-20

Oakland (+7.5) at Denver - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: When your only win in the last five games is over the Titans, it's safe to say that you're struggling. The Raiders are barely clinging to life in the playoff chase, and now get to face a Broncos defense that held them to 10 points and under 300 yards of offense when the two teams met in Oakland. Derek Carr also got sacked four times, accounting for a quarter of the times he's been dropped this year. Whatever game plan they had last time, they need to scrap it and try something else. ... Of course, the Raiders also won't have to face Peyton Manning, but that's not really a plus for them. Manning got picked off twice back in week 5, and while Brock Osweiler hasn't set the world on fire on anything since taking over, he at least hasn't thrown multiple picks in a game yet. The Raiders' pass defense isn't good, ranking 28th in passing yards allowed (271.1 per game) and middle of the pack in other categories, but with Osweiler under center the Broncos have been content to keep the ball on the ground and not press the issue down the field too much. Oakland's 4.4 YPC against (25th in the league) suggests that might be a good idea, but both C.J. Anderson (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) are banged up and not practicing, potentially opening the door for Juwan Thompson to get lots of touches. Otherwise, Denver is going to have to rely on Osweiler, whether Gary Kubiak wants to or not. ... Latavius Murray had his worst game of the season against the Broncos' top-five run defense in Week 5, managing just 39 rushing yards. He hasn't topped 100 yards in five games, although he has scored a couple of touchdowns during that stretch, and chances are good he'll make it six straight Sunday.

Predictions: Murray grinds out 50 yards. Carr throws for 230 yards and a TD to Michael Crabtree. Thompson gets the start for the Broncos and picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Osweiler keeps it simple, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Emmanuel Broncos, 17-10

Dallas (+7) at Green Bay - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The Cowboys got their holiday miracle early last week, and while it was uglier than any Christmas sweater it still kept them improbably alive in the race to be the least-sucky team in the NFC East. Of course, the Packers had their own heroic win against the Lions, but it seems somehow less miraculous when it's Aaron Rodgers pulling off the fourth-quarter win instead of Matt Cassel. The real star of Week 13 for Dallas was its defense, though. Sure, they got punked by the Panthers on Thanksgiving, but even including that one they've still allowed less than 20 points a game over their last six contests, and Sean Lee is flying around the field looking three knee surgeries younger. Meanwhile, the vaunted Green Bay offense hasn't scored more than 30 points in a game since Week 3, as even Rodgers isn't sure what to do with the Packers' rag-tag offensive line and receiving corps. This one could be closer than the team's records, and the point spread, would have you believe. ... If anyone's going to be looking for redemption Sunday, it's Dez Bryant, who returns to the scene of last year's playoff non-catch for the first time. For three quarters against Washington last week he looked like a shadow of his usual dynamic self, but came alive during the Cowboys' fourth quarter rally, and his talk of feeling better than at any time since his foot surgery suddenly didn't seem like bluster. He may not be able to give Dallas a full 60 minutes of max effort, and the Packers' pass defense is a good one if not quite elite, but Bryant feels like Lambeau owes him a touchdown and it's time to collect. ... One week after being all but benched due to missing curfew, Mike McCarthy is now saying lots of nice things about Eddie Lacy's work in practice. He's been a huge disappointment this season, but Lacy was coming off back-to-back 100-yard games prior to the vanishing act against the Lions. The Cowboys' defense has been decidedly meh against the run, so if he truly is focused and playing with a chip on his shoulder again, he could easily make it three 100-yard games out of four.

Predictions:Darren McFadden squeezes out 60 yards and a touchdown. Cassel throws for 200 yards, but hits Bryant twice in the end zone. Lacy rumbles for 120 yards and a score, while Rodgers throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Randall Cobb and James Starks. Packers, 24-21

New England at Houston (+3) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: If I had to make a list of places I'd never want to be, "in a locker room getting chewed out by Bill Belichick after giving up three defensive and special teams touchdowns" would probably crack at least the top 20. The loss to the Eagles was not only their second straight after their 10-0 start, it also put the Pats in a three-way tie for the best record in the AFC with the Broncos and Bengals, potentially costing them a home game or two in the postseason. That should be more than enough incentive to snap out of what, for the Patriots anyway, is a huge slump, but it might not be so easy. Rob Gronkowski may not be ready to return to action, and if he does play he'll be wearing a huge bullseye, err, brace on his knee. Danny Amendola might also make it back onto the field, and even if those two aren't 100 percent, they're still better than the options Tom Brady had available at the end of last week's game. ... Just when it looked like the Texans' defense was going to lead them to a division title, they fell apart against Tyrod Taylor and the Bills. J.J. Watt had his sack streak snapped at five games (imagine the tongue twister if he'd extended that to his sixth Sunday) and is now dealing with hand and groin injuries, but the pocket-bound Brady will be a much more inviting target than the mobile Taylor was. Brady's already been sacked 29 times this season, so if Watt's raring to go that number could rise quickly. ... DeAndre Hopkins' targets have slumped a bit as other teams realize he's the only real threat on the Texans' offense, but he still scored his 10th TD of the season last week. New England has a long track record of scheming to take away the other team's best weapon, though, so another high-volume game for Cecil Shorts and/or Nate Washington could be in the offing.

Predictions:LeGarrette Blount runs for 80 yards and a touchdown. Gronk doesn't play and Brady gets sacked three times as he throws for a season-low 260 yards, but he still hits Brandon LaFell and James White for scores. Chris Polk leads the Texans backfield again with 50 yards, while Brian Hoyer throws for 270 yards and TDs to Shorts and Washington. Patriots, 24-20

N.Y. Giants at Miami (+1.5) - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Since the Giants had the NFC East seemingly within their grasp they've lost three straight games that they probably should have won by a combined 10 points. You can't blame Odell Beckham, though. He's been thoroughly dominant lately, reeling off five straight games with 100-plus receiving yards and scoring six TDs over that stretch. The Dolphins' pass defense has been as sketchy as the rest of the team this season, and they sit 25th in touchdown passes allowed with 24, so Beckham's tour of the league's end zones will likely continue. Now if only Eli Manning could find someone else to throw to consistently. ... Lamar Miller is a tricksy one. Just when it looked like he was falling into a timeshare with Jay Ajayi, he busts out for his third 100-yard rushing day of the season against a top-10 Ravens run defense. Coach Dan Campbell seems inclined to ride the hot hand (when he actually has one to ride, anyway) so Miller's value in any given week could depend heavily on how quickly he bursts out of the gate. A good first quarter against a mediocre Giants run defense could mean another 100-yard game. A quiet start, and he could start swapping series with Ajayi. Miller's also seen multiple targets in every game since Week 2, so if New York jumps out to a big lead, that probably doesn't hurt Miller's upside either. ... Ryan Tannehill's first game with more freedom to audible at the line went about as poorly as you could imagine, and anyone who risked using him in their lineups is probably still wondering what happened to the third digit in his passing yards total. The Giants should, in theory, be a great rebound opportunity for him, as they're allowing a league-worst 314.5 passing yards a game, but banking on a big game from Tannehill is like betting on a coin flip, when the person doing the flipping is a Vegas stage magician. DeVante Parker, at least, is becoming a threat, scoring in two straight games and topping 20 yards per catch in each game. Rishard Matthews is still sidelined with a rib injury, but even when he gets healthy he might not get his spot back.

Predictions:Rashad Jennings leads the Giants backfield with 70 combined yards and his first rushing TD since Week 1. Manning slings it for 320 yards and three touchdowns, one to Rueben Randle and two to Beckham, who collects his usual 100-plus yards. Miller picks up 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Tannehill throws for 340 yards and TDs to Parker and Jordan Cameron. Giants, 31-27

Last week's record: 11-5, 11-5 ATS
Season to date: 117-75, 104-82-6 ATS