Golden State (2) vs. New Orleans (6)
We've seen Game 1 of this series already, with the 123-101 outcome in favor of the Warriors not exactly a surprise. Though the Pelicans stayed in the game for the first quarter, which ended with Golden State up by just one point, things got out of hand quickly. The Pelicans were outscored by 28 in the following two quarters, and the benches were emptied for the final period. Though the Warriors actually turned the ball over two more times than the Pelicans, they made up for it by getting to the free-throw line 21 more times and shooting better from both the field and beyond the arc.
Anthony Davis (47 fantasy points) and Rajon Rondo (39.1 fantasy points) were the only two players to accrue more than 24 fantasy points, though none of the starters played a full playoff-complement of minutes considering the blowout. Davis took 20 field-goal attempts, which was on par with his 21.5 field-goal attempts per game in the team's first-round sweep of Portland. That said, he only got to the free-throw line four times and missed his only three-point attempt, limiting him to a playoff-low 21 points. Aside from scoring, he registered 10 boards, three steals and two blocks. Rondo was his usual self, hovering around a triple-double with nine points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, one steal, one block and only two turnovers. Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic both struggled under the Warriors' swarming defense, going a combined 7-of-23 from the field and 2-for-8 from distance.
On the other side, coach Steve Kerr opted to start Draymond Green at center over JaVale McGee, also opening up a spot for Nick Young to slide into the starting five. Green was dominant, dropping 62.5 fantasy points on the back of 16 points, 15 rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and two blocks. He was flanked by two relatively normal 40-plus fantasy point efforts from Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson -- the former posting 26 points, 13 boards, two assists and two blocks, while the latter posted 27 points, six boards, two assists and two blocks. And, with Steph Curry (knee) "very likely" returning for Game 2, the team will have even more of a fire under them.
Overall, even though there's blowout potential in each game, I don't mind playing Pelicans players here considering the high pace. And, like we saw in Game 1, I think Davis and Rondo are the guys to lean on, as Holiday and Mirotic will be subject to the Warriors' aggressive defense on the wing. In general, I usually avoided deploying Warriors in the regular season, as it felt like guessing which one (or two) would go off on any given night. That doesn't change much for me here, though Green is worth consideration after what he demonstrated Saturday.
Boston (2) vs. Philadelphia (3)
These teams in their present forms look significantly different than they did during their four regular-season meetings. Notably, Kyrie Irving played in three of the games for Boston, while the 76ers added Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli in the buyout market after the teams' final matchup, which took place Jan. 18. That said, there are still some trends that we can take a look at.
Joel Embiid, though he averaged a quality 45.7 fantasy points against Boston during the regular season, struggled with efficiency, having to fight against the frontline of Al Horford and Aron Baynes. He averaged 17.3 points, though ended up shooting just 38.5 percent from the field and a disastrous 8.3 percent from beyond the arc on 4.0 attempts per game. Dario Saric and Robert Covington shared those troubles, with the former averaging a solid 28.4 fantasy points but shooting just 39.2 percent from the field and 30.0 percent from deep, while the latter posted just 13.9 fantasy points per contest while making 33.3 percent of his looks from the field and 28.0 percent from three. Really the only player who exceeded expectations shooting the rock was J.J. Redick, who averaged 19.3 points during the series and made 59.1 percent of his shots from three.
A big reason the Celtics were able to go 3-1 against the Sixers during the regular season was their defense against Ben Simmons. They limited him to just 31.9 fantasy points per game, stemming from 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.3 steals. We saw coach Brad Stevens put Semi Ojeleye on Giannis Antetokounmpo during the final three games of their first-round series, slowing the Greek Freak down dramatically. He could do the same against Simmons here.
For the Celtics, Al Horford was his usual self against the 76ers during the regular season, averaging 34.2 fantasy points per game and shooting an impressive 41.2 percent from deep. Marcus Morris put in quality time as well, averaging 27.9 fantasy points in just 26.4 minutes. On the wings, Jayson Tatum played well while Jaylen Brown struggled. Tatum shot 46.5 percent from the field and hit 36.4 percent of his threes, but Brown only managed 37.0 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from deep.
It's harder to tell how Terry Rozier might fare against the Sixers, as he averaged just 23.0 minutes per game against them during the regular season compared to 35.9 minutes during the first round of the playoffs against Milwaukee. If per-36-minute numbers are any indication, we could expect him to struggle, as he averaged only 23.6 fantasy points against Philly under that condition.
This could end up being a grind-it-out series, which generally isn't conducive to fantasy production. However, it seems hard to go wrong by deploying Al Horford, who was one of the only top-tier players who looked like himself during the regular-season matchups.
Toronto (1) vs. Cleveland (4)
Cleveland fared well against Toronto during the regular season, with the Cavs winning two of the three matchups. That said, only one of the games came after the trade deadline, so things have certainly shifted.
Regardless, LeBron James was nothing short of his usual self, averaging 29.3 points, 8.0 assists and 6.7 rebounds (51.0 fantasy points). Kevin Love also pitched in 36.2 fantasy points per game via 17.0 points and 12.0 rebounds while drilling 61.5 percent of his three-point attempts. Though the Cavs' role players -- namely George Hill and Rodney Hood -- played well too, their disappointing first-round performances against the Pacers leave some questions regarding their viability in DFS. Hill averaged just 15.0 fantasy points, while Hood averaged only 9.6. At this point, it seems tough to trust any player on Cleveland aside from LeBron. Even Kevin Love had an underwhelming series against Indiana, registering just 24.4 fantasy points per contest.
Most players on Toronto fell short of expectation during the matchups, aside from the bench players who benefited from Serge Ibaka (22.9 fantasy points) and Kyle Lowry (27.4 fantasy points) being out for one of the contests. DeMar DeRozan couldn't find his shot, scoring just 17.7 points per game on 42.9 percent from the field and 30.0 percent from beyond the arc. However, Jonas Valanciunas' play is definitely worth noting. He averaged 31.4 fantasy points during the regular-season series via 15.7 points and 12.0 rebounds.
It remains to be seen what coach Tyronn Lue's lineup will be moving forward. However, if he opts to continue starting Tristan Thompson at center, Valanciunas may not be as good of a play, considering Thompson is a better interior defender than Kevin Love. And, even though DeRozan didn't play particularly well against Cleveland during the regular season, I don't think the Cavs have the personnel to deal with him on a nightly basis.
Houston (1) vs. Utah (5)
Like Warriors vs. Pelicans, this series already has Game 1 in the books, with the Rockets coming out on top 110-96. Utah was outscored by 25 in the first half, though won the third quarter 29-22 to make things a bit closer. However, in the end, they didn't have the firepower to compete with Houston despite shooting 50.0 percent from the field. The difference came down to three-point shooting, with the Jazz going 7-of-22 from distance, while the Rockets shot a blistering 17-of-32.
With Ricky Rubio (hamstring) out for Game 1, and likely longer, Donovan Mitchell was asked to play point guard. He struggled against Chris Paul's defense, shooting 9-of-22 from the field and 1-of-7 from deep. He tacked on five assists, but also had four turnovers. Ultimately, he finished with a modest 28.1 fantasy points. Plenty of Jazz players contributed, however, with five other players finishing with at least 20 fantasy points. Joe Ingles (31.7 fantasy points) and Jae Crowder (32.5) were the best among them.
For the Rockets, James Harden was dominant. He produced 41 points, eight boards, seven assists and a steal for 61.1 fantasy points. Aside from him, there were three other 20-plus fantasy point outings. P.J. Tucker went an impressive 3-of-5 from beyond the arc en route to 25.2 fantasy points, Clint Capela registered a double-double on the way to 36.9 fantasy points, and Chris Paul nabbed four steals to help reach 35.8 fantasy points.
If the Jazz are without Rubio for an extended period, this series could get ugly quickly, as the team is without much top-level talent. Aside from Mitchell, Ingles and Gobert, it can turn into a guessing game as to who is worth deploying in DFS. That's especially the case when considering the blowout potential. On Houston's end, it appears the usual suspects -- Harden, Paul, Capela -- are who to focus on in DFS, as nobody seemed particularly stunted by Utah's defense.
