This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's seven-game slate gives you some pretty favorable games to target, but a grand majority of them occur later in the evening, which is going to make late-breaking news difficult to predict. I'm going to include all seven games in this report, but this is one of those nights where I may elect to break up my play into two different slates or play late swap in my 50/50's. While DraftKings still hasn't fully bought into the Late Swap model in terms of GPP's, you can still find some reasonable cash purses there.
The last three games on Wednesday are just ridiculously good in terms of total points and overall pace, with the Nuggets-Cavaliers matchup topping the Over/Under lines at 230. The Nuggets have become a perplexing DFS play as the return of Paul Millsap has thrown everything out of whack.
Almost every Nuggets starter has seen their production take a hit, save for Will Barton, who was actually supposed to be the player most affected by Millsap's arrival. Despite the pace of this game I would need some sound evidence to focus on that side. On the other end, there's no question that LeBron James ($11,400) is a solid play on the evening, but Larry Nance ($6,300) Is going to be widely owned after he blew up for 48 DKFP against the Pistons on Monday. Despite him being all over a lot of lineups, he looks to be the guy inside as long as Tristan Thompson remains out, and a great option at center.
The Magic-Lakers matchup clocks in at an O/U of 226.5 and there's solid value to be had on both sides of the ball. With Brandon Ingram out at least another week, the Lakers have fallen into a fairly predictable cast of characters, and DraftKings has taken notice. Guys like Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma have seen some substantial salary increases, but Isaiah Thomas ($6,000) has been helped the most by Ingram's absence and still comes in at a reasonable price. On the Magic side Aaron Gordon ($7,600) is a great cash anchor and a lot of value can also be found with Nikola Vucevic ($7,700), who should be a huge inside presence in this game.
A trip to Anthony Davis Land will obviously be a voyage many people will be taking, as this game against the Kings lines up on multiple levels for The Brow, as Willie-Cauley Stein will be out, leaving Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos to defend the MVP contender. At $11,300 he's certainly pricey, but this fast-paced game (O/U:224) is right in Davis' wheelhouse. The one caveat here is the rib injury Davis incurred in his last game. He eventually returned to the court following a trip to the locker room and ended up having yet another great game, but it's possible he could be feeling the after-effects on the second night of a back-to-back.
The last game I'll highlight is the trip to value town known as the Memphis Grizzlies, who face the Bulls in a clunker of a game that I'd usually shy away from, but it's hard to do considering the value opportunities that the Grizzlies present due to their high casualty count. Once again, we are faced with the absences of Tyreke Evans, Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers at the point, which should open up the door for Kobi Simmons ($4,100) and Ben McLemore ($4,500). McLemore burned me earlier in the week with his personal day, but I think he is a wild-card pick who could reap huge benefits. Jarrell Martin could also be gone, which makes JaMychal Green ($6,800) and Chandler Parsons ($3,400) also worth a look.
As far as elite players who I didn't include, James Harden ($11,100) has a good matchup against the Bucks but I don't think he is the best 10k-plus play compared to James or Davis. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,400) will be on the other side in this game and I like him a little bit better here due to some injuries in the Houston interior.
On to my featured picks. I'll highlight three guys at each position with an additional list that holds equal weight in my predictions. Each spot will include a high-value bargain player.
PLEASE NOTE: If I have put a salary amount next to anyone above, I've selected them as preferred plays on the slate. I'll remind you of them at each spot.
GUARDS
Previously mentioned: Harden, K. Simmons, McLemore, I. Thomas
Jrue Holiday, NO at SAC ($8,100): While he's largely underperformed against the Kings this season, I think you have to throw every game out the window when considering Holiday as all three games occurred with what was essentially a completely different team. He's also averaged 24.7 points and eight assists per game over the past week. While this game will force down the Pelicans' pace, Holiday is a solid, green-light pick for Wednesday.
Kyle Lowry, TOR at DET ($7,200): Lowry continues to come at a reasonable price relative to his output. My only knock on Lowry is that his ceiling is relatively limited. He's definitely going to find 30 DKFP somewhere but he needs an extra assist here and a steal there to get him up a little higher. Luckily, Detroit is near the bottom of the barrel in assists allowed, so I like Lowry's potential despite the back-to-back.
C.J. Miles, TOR at DET ($3,800): While he's technically a forward, he has eligibility at SG on DraftKings as well, and I am featuring him at this position due to his uptick in value thanks to OG Anunoby's absence. His floor of around 25 DKFP gives him a lot of value at this price, and as long as his minutes don't dip, he's a good value target.
Other guards to consider:Chris Paul, HOU at MIL ($8,000); Eric Bledsoe, MIL vs. HOU ($7,500); Lonzo Ball, LAL vs. ORL ($7,400); Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. NO ($6,400); De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. NO ($5,800)
FORWARDS
Previously mentioned: James, Antetokounmpo, A. Gordon, J. Green, Parsons
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. HOU ($6,900): Despite a tough defensive matchup, Middleton enjoyed a good game against the Rockets back in December, and with the Rockets lacking depth inside due to injuries, I think we'll see a good showing by both Middleton and Giannis in a pivotal home matchup for the Bucks. Middleton has averaged 33.3 points per game at home this season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL vs. ORL ($6,200): I'll take advantage of his dual eligibility and slot him here. There's no denying that Caldwell-Pope has made the most of his increased role in Brandon Ingram's absence, shooting 52 percent from the floor and an even better 56.3 from beyond the arc in his past 5 games. I think you can discount his mediocre night against the Magic earlier in the season due to the current circumstances.
Serge Ibaka, TOR at DET ($5,300): I'm gravitating to this game a lot more than I thought I would, but Toronto's gaping hole at the three always draws interest from me. The experiment with Malcolm Miller at the wing hasn't been particularly effective, and we've seen Ibaka pick up the slack capably in previous games this past week. He also enjoyed a 38 DKFP night against the Pistons two weeks ago, which is all the more reason to find a place for him in your lineups.
Other forwards to consider:Will Barton, DEN vs. CLE ($7,000), Lauri Markkanen, CHI vs. MEM ($5,900), Joe Ingles, UTA at IND ($5,900), James Ennis, DET vs, TOR ($3,700)
CENTERS
Previously mentioned: Davis, Vucevic, Nance
Andre Drummond, DET vs. TOR ($9,500): Drummond has put up 58 DKFP twice against the Raptors this season, and you can't use Blake Griffin as a qualifier against the numbers because one of the games included the additional inside threat for the Pistons. Jonas Valanciunas doesn't seem to have an answer for Drummond, so if you can afford him, he's a very dependable play in all formats.
Paul Millsap, DEN vs. CLE ($6,100): I realize that I've put a few guys into positions they don't normally play, but dual eligibility can be your friend when you have a lot of targets at one of the positions and a dearth of options at the other. Millsap has mixed things up in Denver but that's all the more reason to play him, and he's a good option at center if you can't find room to spend up. He's managed decent stat lines despite only averaging around 24 minutes per game. I don't think the back-to-back is concerning here, as they only gave him 20 minutes on the floor on Tuesday. I would be surprised if he wasn't ready to go in Wednesday's game.
Kosta Koufos, SAC at NO ($4,400): Koufos may not appeal to some, but he's a very efficient defensive player and has met value whenever he's drawn the start. There's always a possibility that Davis could sit tonight, which would boost his value even further. He put up 29.5 against the Pelicans in their last meeting.
Other centers to consider:Rudy Gobert, UTA at IND ($8,400)
