NBA Waiver Wire: Week 16 Targets

NBA Waiver Wire: Week 16 Targets

This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.

The trade deadline is now mere days away – to the hour, it is almost exactly 10 days from the publication of this article. There were seven trades between New Year's Day and the T-Minus-10 mark last season. This season, there hasn't been a trade since December 7. We may be heading for a quiet deadline, but even so, there is absolutely no chance that zero trades are finalized before the deadline. Even in quiet years, some trades happen that make a big impact on the waiver wire.

And let's not forget – an absence of trades has fantasy takeaways, too. For example, if the Suns do not trade away one of their big men (Greg Monroe, Tyson Chandler, Alex Len, Dragan Bender or Marquese Chriss), then Chandler and Len become immediate drop candidates, while Monroe's fantasy trade value falls below his current production levels. Borderline players like Mario Chalmers or Dillon Brooks gain appeal if the deadline passes and the Grizzlies haven't acquired a new point guard.

The trade deadline is a major event in the fantasy season, so this week features an expanded "speculative adds" section. These are players whose value could jump, depending on what happens at next week's deadline. At this point in the season, maximizing the value added during the trade deadline is far more important than 10 days worth of streaming players.

As always, players must be owned in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues.

Adds for All Leagues

The trade deadline is now mere days away – to the hour, it is almost exactly 10 days from the publication of this article. There were seven trades between New Year's Day and the T-Minus-10 mark last season. This season, there hasn't been a trade since December 7. We may be heading for a quiet deadline, but even so, there is absolutely no chance that zero trades are finalized before the deadline. Even in quiet years, some trades happen that make a big impact on the waiver wire.

And let's not forget – an absence of trades has fantasy takeaways, too. For example, if the Suns do not trade away one of their big men (Greg Monroe, Tyson Chandler, Alex Len, Dragan Bender or Marquese Chriss), then Chandler and Len become immediate drop candidates, while Monroe's fantasy trade value falls below his current production levels. Borderline players like Mario Chalmers or Dillon Brooks gain appeal if the deadline passes and the Grizzlies haven't acquired a new point guard.

The trade deadline is a major event in the fantasy season, so this week features an expanded "speculative adds" section. These are players whose value could jump, depending on what happens at next week's deadline. At this point in the season, maximizing the value added during the trade deadline is far more important than 10 days worth of streaming players.

As always, players must be owned in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues.

Adds for All Leagues

Wayne Ellington, Heat (48 percent owned)
Weekly "seriously Ellington isn't 50% owned yet?" update: per stats.NBA.com tracking data, Ellington attempted the most catch-and-shoot threes per game in January, and by an absurd margin. His 7.9 per game is a full 25% more per game than second place (Gerald Green, 6.3). Over the last 14 games, Ellington trails only Steph Curry in made threes per game.

Larry Nance, Jr., Lakers (48 percent owned)
Nance could also be listed below as a speculative add. If the Lakers move either Julius Randle or Brook Lopez, Nance's value could spike. However, even if the Lakers stand pat, Nance already warrants ownership based on his increasingly stable role and his defense. He's averaged 8.0 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks over the past seven games. In 2016-17, only six players averaged more than 2.9 combined steals-plus-blocks, five of whom averaged at least 31 minutes per night (Joel Embiid was the sixth). Nance is pulling this off in only 26.0 minutes per game.

Other recommendations:E'Twaun Moore (49 percent owned); Dillon Brooks, Grizzlies (31 percent owned)

Commonly added players who I'm not bothering with:Kyle Anderson, Spurs (58 percent owned; plus-7 percent over the past week); Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers (34 percent owned; plus-8 percent over the past week); Trey Burke, Knicks (17 percent owned; plus-14 over the past week)

Speculative Adds

Greg Monroe, Suns (58 percent)
I've spilled a lot of internet ink talking about Monroe recently, so I'll try to be brief. His talent translates to top-60 production if he can average close to 30 minutes per game. Even though he's moved into the starting lineup for two of the past three games, playing at least 26 minutes in three and getting eliminated early in the fourth, it's hard to count on that role continuing unless the Suns make a trade. They don't have to trade Monroe (moving Tyson Chandler, for example, is good enough), but Monroe either needs to leave or needs a less crowded depth chart to maximize his potential.

Darius Miller, Pelicans (31 percent owned)
DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is now out for the season. That opens up 36.2 minutes and 18 field goal attempts per game that now have to be distributed throughout the rest of the Pelicans rotation – oh, and Cousins also led the team in rebounds, threes, and steals, while ranking second in assists. A gigantic opportunity just opened up. I think the most likely scenario is that the Pelicans acquire some help at the trade deadline. They have a comfortable lead over the West's 10th seed, so they only need to hold off one of the Trail Blazers, Nuggets and Clippers to make the playoffs, and the Nuggets upcoming schedule is almost comically brutal. The Pelicans' top priority should be keeping Anthony Davis happy, which is why I think they are buyers, despite losing Cousins.

The probability of adding a starter-level talent, regardless of position, is why Miller is a speculative add, and not this week's headline player. Of the current Pelicans, Miller is the most likely to have his Fantasy value leap with Cousins sidelined. In the five games before Cousins' injury, Miller averaged 32.4 minutes but only 9.3 field goal attempts, 6.8 of which were from behind the arc. With Cousins out, Miller may be called upon to take more shots, especially from outside. He's primary contributions are as a scorer and source of threes, but he also gets good assist numbers for his position. If the Pelicans stay quiet at the deadline, Miller likely has long-term value.

Dante Cunningham (15 percent owned) could also see a boost in value – he saw one of the biggest jumps in minutes in their first sans-Cousins game – but Cunningham's per-36 production is barely worth owning in a 16-team league, so improved opportunity alone is not enough to warrant adding him in most leagues. E'Twaun Moore (49 percent owned) saw a boost in value when Anthony Davis was out, which is part of why he's listed above as a recommended addition.

Bobby Portis, Bulls (59 percent owned)
Of all the players I've heard mentioned in trade rumors, Nikola Mirotic strikes me as the one most likely to actually get moved. Portis can contribute across multiple categories and would benefit significantly if Mirotic leaves. If Mirotic is moved and the return package doesn't include someone above Portis on the depth chart, then Portis has top-100 potential over the rest of the season.

Mario Chalmers, Grizzlies (15 percent owned)
Similar to Miller, Chalmers' value might be highest if the Grizzlies don't make major moves at the trade deadline. He already sees significant minutes, and with Mike Conley (heel) now officially done for the season, Chalmers the biggest threat to Chalmers role has been eliminated.

The Grizzlies have been involved in a lot of trade rumors, most focusing on Marc Gasol or Tyreke Evans. Chalmers is in an interesting situation – he's barely a rotation-level talent, but he currently sees sixth-man-level minutes. In order for the money to work, the Grizzlies would have to receive someone in any trade, and a lot of those options are better than Chalmers. For example, if the Grizzlies receive a rotation-caliber guard or wing for Gasol, Chalmers' minutes would probably drop. However, if the Grizzlies receive dead money or a big man, Chalmers would benefit from the departure of either Gasol or Evans. Gasol and Evans combine for nearly half of the Grizzlies' assists, so if the Grizzlies move either and Chalmers is better than the player they receive, then Chalmers would have to take on a bigger role as a distributor. Depending on the events of the next 10 days, Chalmers' rest of season outlook could be anywhere from top-80 to outside the top-200.

Other recommendations: Players are listed by their upside if a trade happens that impacts their role in the rotation. All players listed are at least reasonably likely to have such a trade happen.

Top-70 potential:John Collins, Hawks (80 percent owned)
Top-100 potential: Undetermined Hornets' point guard
Top-130 potential:Jonas Jerebko, Jazz (1 percent owned)

Situation to Monitor

Thunder Shooting Guard/Small Forward
Defensive specialist Andre Roberson (knee) is now out for the season following an injury last week. Roberson was a starter averaging 26.6 minutes per game. Roberson's skill set is such that he is one of the least useful Fantasy players in the league, despite his significant real-life role in the rotation.

There are several ways that the Thunder could respond to his absence, and if any player settles in above 25 minutes per game, they're likely to have more Fantasy viability than Roberson did. The primary candidates to keep an eye on are Alex Abrines and Terrance Ferguson, but Josh Huestis, Raymond Felton, Jerami Grant or Patrick Patterson all could end up becoming the primary beneficiary. Ferguson seems to be the guy getting the first crack at the job, but it's way too soon to declare a winner. Monitor closely.

Deep League Special

Jamal Crawford, Timberwolves (9 percent owned)
77-year-old Crawford continues to make an impact in his 84th NBA season. Those numbers might be minor exaggerations, but these aren't: this season, when Crawford plays at least 21 minutes, he averages 14.5 points, 4.2 assists and 1.3 threes. In those games, he's scored in double-digits all but once, when he scored eight. He's played at least 20 minutes in three straight games, and he's played at least 17 in every game since the start of December.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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