This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Saturday evening's seven-game ledger is essentially an ideal size, as it provides us with more than enough favorable options to differentiate for tournaments. There's also a particular abundance of favorable individual matchups, giving you a multitude of ways you can go at each position, particularly at the mid-tier guard level. With plenty to analyze, let's dive right in.
GUARD
Kyrie Irving, BOS at GS ($14,900): Irving is a highly viable option for those that can't afford the top trio of Stephen Curry ($19,400), Victor Oladipo ($17,500) and John Wall ($17,300). Irving comes at a significant discount and should reap the benefits of facing a Warriors squad that's playing at the fourth highest pace (103.7 possessions per game). The Warriors come in allowing 45.4 fantasy points per game to point guards as well, while Irving has scored 42.25 to 60.25 fantasy points in the last four games, a span during which he's sporting team highs in usage rate (30.6 percent), points per possession (1.28) and fantasy points per minute (1.29).
Darren Collison, IND vs. ORL ($11,400): For those that can afford it, Jamal Murray ($12,700) and Dennis Smith ($12,700) both make for intriguing plays in a favorable matchup against each other, while Nicolas Batum ($11,400) is a viable same-price pivot from Collison as well. However, the Pacers point guard has plenty going for him, considering he's scored between 30.00 and 46.50 fantasy points in three of his past four games. Orlando also comes in allowing 47.2 fantasy points per game to point guards over the last 10, while Collison is posting career bests in shooting percentage (50.0) and three-point shooting percentage (44.1). He's encouragingly been more involved on the offensive end of late as well, putting up two more shots per game more on average during that stretch than his seasonal figure of 9.5.
Yogi Ferrell, DAL at DEN ($9,000): Ferrell has been outperforming his modest price as of late, as he's scored 27.50 to 33.50 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, a stretch during which he's seen no fewer than 29 minutes while averaging 1.39 points per possession. The Nuggets continue to be highly vulnerable to point guards, allowing the third most fantasy points per game (49.3) to the position on the season, including 52.0 over the last five. They're also yielding bottom 10 figures in multiple other categories to the position, while Ferrell is outperforming his season metrics in most major offensive categories over the aforementioned seven-game span, including in shot attempts, where his 10.2 figure represents a notable bump from the 8.4 he's averaging overall.
FORWARD/CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. BKN ($18,300): Towns walks into the best matchup for centers in the NBA, as the Nets come in allowing the most fantasy points per game (40.1) to fives on the campaign, including 47.3 over the last 10. They're also yielding league-worst or bottom 10 figures in multiple other categories to centers, while Towns' significant upside has been most recently evidenced by the fact he's crossed 50 fantasy points twice and 60 on another occasion within the last eight games. He already posted a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double against this same squad back on Jan. 3 as well, and the Nets' league-worst 41.9 percent success rate from the floor in January should particularly afford him plenty of opportunities on the glass Saturday.
Aaron Gordon, OLR at IND ($14,900): Gordon racked up 38.00 fantasy points against this same Pacers squad back on Nov. 27 and has scored between 33.75 and 42.00 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He's averaging a double-double (14.4 points and 10.4 rebounds) during that span, and despite some shooting struggles, he's still putting up 17.2 shot attempts per game, a notable bump over his 14.8 season figure. Meanwhile, the Pacers have proven increasingly vulnerable in the frontcourt as of late, as they've allowed 53.8 fantasy points per game to power forwards over the last five, a drastic increase over the 41.8 they're yielding to the position on the season. They're also surrendering the seventh most points in the paint (46.1) on the campaign, which should bode well for Gordon's overall prospects Saturday.
Wayne Ellington, MIA vs. CHA ($10,100): For the moment, Tyler Johnson remains questionable for Saturday's game with an ankle injury that's already cost him five games. Another absence would very likely afford Ellington a robust workload off the bench, the type of workload that he's parlayed into totals of between 23.75 and 35.00 fantasy points in five of his last six games. The Hornets come in allowing 50.9 fantasy points per game to two-guards over the last five, along with 26.8 points and 3.5 made three-pointers to the position on the season. Ellington is averaging an impressive 16.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists across 34.0 minutes during that same span, while shooting 45.2 percent (on 12.4 shot attempts) and draining 4.0 three-pointers per contest.
UTILITY
Bradley Beal, WAS at ATL ($16,600): Beal detonated for 72.50 fantasy points against the Thunder on Thursday on the strength of an eye-popping 41-point, 12-rebound double-double, and while that will undeniably be difficult to top, he'll find himself in another highly favorable situation Saturday. The Hawks have been exploited by two-guards all season, allowing the second most fantasy points per game (50.2) to the position on the season, including 57.6 over the last 10 games. As those numbers imply, they're also ranked league-worst or in the bottom five in multiple other categories against the position, including in three-pointers allowed (4.0), a number that especially spells trouble against Beal. The Wizards' sharpshooter is draining an impressive 44.9 percent of his shots from distance over the last six games while putting up a robust 8.2 attempts from behind the arc during that stretch. Moreover, the fact he already lit up this same squad for 43.00 fantasy points on Dec. 27 only serves to further his already formidable case.
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. DAL ($16,200): Jokic trampled the Mavs for 67.00 fantasy points on the strength of a 29-point, 18-rebound double-double on Jan. 16, and he's scored at least 42.25 fantasy points in four other games over the last six. He's sporting a 28.4 percent usage rate and averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute over that span, with both figures serving as team highs. Dallas is allowing 38.8 fantasy points per game to centers over the last five, along with the fifth highest shooting percentage (55.0) to the position on the season. Meanwhile, Jokic's recent uptick in offensive involvement includes 15.8 shot attempts over the last five contests, a favorable increase over the 12.5 he's averaging on the season.
