This article is part of our Rebound & Rant series.
In the last Rebound & Rant, we talked about early-season turkeys. Let's flip that coin and debate the rest-of-season outlooks for a few ballers who are exceeding expectations this season. Should owners sell high or cling to their production?
For consistency sake, we'll use Yahoo's nine-category, season average game rankings. Using average game stats helps balance things for guys who have missed a few games.
Marc Gasol
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #9
I've had an awkward man crush on Gasol for years, especially after he helped me win back-to-back titles versus my grad school buddies (shout out, Kellogg!). Last year, the Big Burrito came back from a knee injury (and a 23-game absence) to post 14.6 points, 7.2 boards, 3.6 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steal per game – pretty darn awesome across-the-board numbers for a big man. Yet those figures resulted in "only" an average game ranking of 51. This year, he's boosted his points per game to 19.0, rebounds to 8.1 and increased his free throw percentage from 77 percent to 85 percent. Delicioso! But can he keep this up?
PREDICTION: Absolutamente! Because the Gasol brothers have been around forever, many assume Marc Gasol is older than his 29 years of age. He's still in his prime – it's fellow frontcourt mate Zach Randolph at 33 years of age that needs to worry about physical decline. Plus, the MCL injury from last season lingered all spring. He didn't stop playing without his knee brace until mid-June. Gasol is now fully healthy. Also, with Courtney Lee finally replacing Tayshaun Prince in the starting line-up, the Griz are spacing the floor better, reducing double teams on the Big Burrito (that sounds dirty). Gasol won't finish the year at #9, but somewhere in the #12-16 range is very doable. Hold on to him! (Side Note: if we have a third kid, I'm going to name him/her "Pequeño Burrito".)
Danny Green
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #13
Danny Green has broken my heart more than once. One night he's raining three's, with steals, a great free throw percentage and assists. The next night, you read how he's in coach Gregg Popovich's dog house, and he regurgitates two "send me back to the D-League" stinkers.
But you want so badly to participate in the pure basketball, the Spur-gasm® that is San Antonio hoops, that you cling to Green like an old Avery Johnson jersey. If this love is wrong, do you want to be right?
PREDICTION: Trade him. Trade him now. There is no way Danny Green maintains his current 46 percent field goal shooting and 100 percent free throw shooting (only 18 attempts). Sooner or later, he will hit a shooting cold spell and drive you nuts. He's a career 44 percent shooter and shot 43 percent all of last year. If you can get top 30-40 talent, such as Tobias Harris, Derrick Favors or Jared Sullinger, do it and do it now. Then loudly crow a movie villain evil laugh:
Tyson Chandler
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #17
The RotoWire intelligentsia was all a buzz this summer with the thought of Tyson Chandler returning to Dallas and coach Rick Carlisle's system. But none of us expected him to EXCEED the numbers from his 2010-11 campaign. That was his one and only year with Dallas and just happened to be their championship season. Chandler averaged 10.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 0.5 steals per game over 74 games played. Through 22 games this year, those figures have improved to 11.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 0.7 steals.
PREDICTION: What's amazing about Chandler's resurgence is he's actually playing about two minutes less per game than during his three years with New York. Gee gosh golly, I guess Mr. Carlisle may be a tad better coach than Mike D'Antoni and Mike Woodson. I'm torn here. Do I let my admiration for Carlisle advise you to keep Chandler all year, or does the fact that Chandler is a battle worn 32 years old (this is his 14th season) suggest you should trade him? Well, I did just offer Chandler for DeAndre Jordan in that same Kellogg Hoops league. I suspect he tires only a bit but still ends ranked around #25-32. Knicks fans (both of you), please once again lower your heads in shame.
Brandon Knight
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #23
Good golly miss molly, did anyone see this coming? Yahoo certainly didn't, slotting him with an O-Rank of #116. The 23-year-old point guard has kept his scoring consistent while improving in assists, steals, rebounds, field goal percentage, treys and free throw percentage. He's turned into a major trade chip in keeper leagues. But is he really a top-25 player?
PREDICTION: Yes, I think he is. I never, ever, ever thought I'd say this, but I must reluctantly give coach Jason Kidd credit. His rotations make absolutely no sense to me (More Greek Freak! More Parker! More Sanders!), but he's got that team at 11-11. This team won all of 15 games TOTAL last year. Kidd's Bucks will pass that total by New Years.
And Kidd clearly knows how to make the young Knight a better point guard. If you own Knight, cling to him like he's the only pretty girl at the prom (and get everything you can out of that $65 tux rental).
Jamal Crawford
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #32
Like Chandler, Crawford is in his 14th season. Unlike Chandler, he's 34 years old and relies more on quickness. Yet, based on his improved shooting, steals and turnovers, he's appearing spry and young.
PREDICTION: Kudos to Crawford for the hot start, but he can't keep this up. Crawford is a career 41 percent shooter. Like Green, it would be very surprising if he maintains his current 45 percent rate. Crawford will always be a great source for treys and points, he's bound to regress to the mean. Trade him while he's hot.
Draymond Green
Yahoo! Nine-Category Average Game Ranking: #37
Picking Draymond Green is just a shameless excuse for me to link to Kyle McKeown's awesome work on 120 Sports. Go here to learn about the guy Tom Izzo called "Tragic Johnson."
Let's end with a few current free agent suggestions for you to consider. Investigate Robert Covington in Philly. He's had three straight good scoring nights, including 25 points in the win versus Detroit on Saturday. Kris Humphries is starting in Washington and qualifies at center in many leagues. Also in DC, Rasual Butler is putting up some surprise scoring – I can't see how that can continue, but crazier things have happened.
Maybe we should have seen Brandon Knight coming, based on these highlights from last year. Peace out!
