This article is part of our Rebound & Rant series.
Chris Liss once told the ESPNews anchors "we have a saying at RotoWire that if a veteran is slumping, you wait at least two weeks. If he is still struggling, wait another week. Then wait another week…and by then, no one will want to trade for him." That's fine for the basic cable crowd, but RotoWire subscribers deserve better!
During this festive time of Thanksgiving, let's discuss the early-season turkeys of this young NBA season.
Danilo Gallinari
I believe it was Alice In Chains in 1992 who sang:
Eyes burn with stinging sweat
Seems every path leads me to nowhere
Wife and kids household pet
Army green was no safe bet
The bullets scream to me from somewhere
Here they come to snuff the rooster
Yeah here come the rooster, yeah
Yeah, lots of folks seemed to have unrealistic early expectations for Danilo "The Rooster" Gallinari as the 26-year-old returned from a torn ACL that had him out for over a year. That kind of absence requires time to get back to full speed. And his early stats demonstrated the need for patience. With a minutes restriction, the Rooster averaged 7.7 points, 3.1 boards and 34 percent shooting through the first 14 games of the season. That was certainly nothing to crow about, and not worthy of the 70 percent owned rate in CBS and 51 percent rate in Yahoo.
But the rooster is starting to strut. Coach Brian Shaw has removed the minutes restriction for Gallinari and is thinking about adding him to the starting rotation. Over the past two games, he's averaged 30 minutes, 12.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 three-pointer. And maybe most importantly, he shot 47 percent from the field.
PREDICTION: Two days ago I wrote "Get ready for the gravy! (Gravy is obviously the best part of Thanksgiving leftovers.) My thinking was that Gallinari would soon return to his 2012-13 numbers of 17.9 points, 5.7 boards, 2.7 assists and 2.1 three-pointers per game. But that might have been the Thanksgiving week champagne talking. On Wednesday, the Rooster faced another bullet: after nine minutes of play, he left the game with "left knee soreness." Two steps forward, one step back. I'm now venturing into
Jeff Stotts territory (a medical wonderland where I do not belong), but I'm going to guess it will be another 3-5 weeks before we see the 2012-13 Rooster, though he was cleared to play Friday and put up 11 points in 23 minutes off the bench, which is encouraging.
Al Horford
From 2008 to 2011, Horford was a consistent, affordable buy, especially in a center-starved league. But then two big torn pectorals restricted him to 11 games in 2011-12 and only 29 games last season. After 12 games this season, one has to wonder if some permanent health issues have resulted from the two big injuries. Big Al is averaging only 13.3 points and 6.4 boards.
Unlike Gallinari, Horford isn't seeing a recent uptick in production. But his less sexy numbers look pretty good. Over those same 12 games, he's averaging 1.2 blocks, 55 percent shooting and 82 percent free throw shooting. And if your league counts turnovers, his 1.1 TO's per game is rather appealing.
PREDICTION: Enjoy the multi-stat "stuffing" and relax regarding his points and rebounds. In the 29 games he played with Paul Millsap last year, Horford averaged 18.6 points and 8.4 boards. It's a matter of time before Milsap and Jeff Teague adjust to Horford's talents. On Wednesday, Horford led the Hawks in shot attempts, leading to a very nice 23 point, 9 board, 4 assist and 2 block night. Now that's gravy with turkey, stuffing and a lil' cranberry sauce!
SIDE NOTE: I'd like to give thanks to all leagues that include turnovers as a competitive stat. Editor Kyle McKeown and I will go to our grave arguing against each other over this point. Turnovers are bad. One turnover is much more harmful than the benefits of one block. Good point guards have a good assist-to-TO ratio…you constantly hear this ratio discussed during point guard contract negotiations. Count turnovers! I'm told Kyle, when healthy, is a turnover machine in the RotoWire pick-up league. Figures.
SIDE NOTE TO SIDE NOTE: I enjoy ribbing Kyle, but he's hands down the best NBA talent we have had in the 17 year history of RotoWire. Checkout his almost daily video appearances on 120 Sports by clicking here. Love ya, Kyle. [Editor's note: Love you, too, bae. XOXO]
Kawhi Leonard
Remember how the Oakland Raiders seemed to sign and overpay every newly-minted Super Bowl MVP? That same championship hype seemed to boost Kawhi Leonard a few spots too early in many fantasy drafts this fall. His 13.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 0.7 made threes per game are generally a modest improvement over last year's figures, but don't quite justify the second round draft status. Also, his TO's are up from his 1.0 career average to 1.8 per game. Could he be trying too hard? Or could his two different eye issues (conjunctivitis during the offseason and a five-stitch cut over his left eye thanks to a Kobe Bryant elbow) be temporarily affecting his game?
PREDICTION: Leonard is the buttered asparagus of Thanksgiving dinner. It tastes good, it's good for you, but it ain't the highlight. The 23-year-old will be a very productive NBA professional for many, many years, but he'll never be the star of your fantasy squad. With coach Gregg Popovich's justifiable love for ball movement and well-rested stars, Leonard may never justify a second-round pick. But he'll be a quality third or fourth rounder for years, depending on your league rules. In the short-term, veterans Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will still need their shots.
Al Jefferson
Big Al is ranked a surprisingly 68th in per game average stats for nine-category Yahoo! leagues. That's after ranking 17th with the same rules last year. The early returns on the Lance Stephenson signing are not looking great for the 4-11 Hornets. Sir Lancelot and his surprising 8.2 boards per game are costing Jefferson about three boards per. And there are whispers Lance is holding on to the ball too long, slowing down the flow of the offense. Big Al, never a defensive stalwart, also has had a small tick down in steals per game.
PREDICTION: Big Al's stats will dry a tad like day-old turkey in his second year in Charlotte. The Hornets have too much money committed to Stephenson ($27 million over three years) to cut back too much on his 34 minutes per game. That said, it wouldn't be surprising if coach Steve Clifford moved Lancelot to the bench to be the star of the second squad while the team tries to recapture some of last year's magic. That would free up time for Jefferson that doesn't require sharing the ball with Stephenson. So, expect Al to certainly improve on that #68 ranking, but a return to last year's numbers is probably unrealistic.
Kenneth Faried
Mr. McKeown already covered the major disappointment that is the Manimal this season on 120 Sports, and I agree 120 percent with him. Faried had a monster second half last season (18.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 55% from the field) and looked fantastic starting for Team USA this summer:
Now it appears that maybe he was shining as a desperately needed option on a bad Nuggets team and then feasting on bad competition. His current 11.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per game this year are actually worse than his career averages. Of even more concern is his current 50 percent field goal percentage, a five-point dip from his three-year career average.
PREDICTION: Dump him like stale, old green bean casserole. Could we be looking at Birdman 2? As Bill Parcells used to say, Faried might be eating his own cheese. Once known for his hustle, he's down in every hustle stat of rebounds, blocks and steals. In October he signed a four year, $50 million deal. And like Chris Anderson's old big contract, I wonder if the Denver brass is starting to regret that deal. I recommend dealing him now while one of your league mates still remembers his FIBA buzz.
Kevin Love
So, I guess sometimes it's bad playing with one of the greatest players of all time. Ask Chris Bosh. This is easy to say with 20/20 vision, but you always have to be wary when a guy leaves a situation (in this case, Minnesota) where he was the only legit scoring option.
(My favorite example is the three years Harvey Grant averaged 18+ points a game for the woeful Washington Bullets from 1990-93. He averaged around nine points per game or worse for the other eight years of his career. And we're talking about Harvey Grant, not his championship winning twin brother Horace. Thank you
Basketball-Reference.com. )
Kevin Love is averaging only 12.6 shots per game with Cleveland, significantly down from the 18.5 he averaged last year on yet another bad Timberwolves squad. Yahoo! has Love ranked 35th for per-game averages in nine-category leagues. Not bad, but not the perpetual top-7 form he displayed in years past.
PREDICTION: It's late Sunday evening. You are all alone, hungry and lazy. All that's left over from the holiday feast is some dry stuffing, one last oddly colored slice of out-of-the-can cranberry sauce and some crunchy (why?) sweet potatoes. In one last desperate attempt to cling to the fond memories of family and friends, you methodically force down these last leftovers. You have no other choice. No other choice whatsoever. And that is the case with Love. He may no longer hold first round value, but no one will trade you first round value either. You will have to embrace his 16.5 points, 9.4 boards and 42 percent shooting and pretend it's a feast for the Gods. I'm sorry, but this is your destiny, Kevin Love owners.
Happy belated Thanksgiving everyone!
P.S. Are you almost as old as I am? Remember mind-worm songs from the early 90's? If so, enjoy this grunge video classic with the lyrics from above:
