Regan's Rumblings: 2018 Surprises

John Hicks, C, DET
Projected: .234/.268/.358
Actual: .285/.327/.437

Hicks did post a .765 OPS last year, so his .764 OPS this season may not be a huge surprise to some. Obviously though, his performance to date has been a surprise to us at RotoWire. Hicks' ratios are mediocre – 6.2 BB percentage and 27.2 K percentage. Hicks entered Wednesday with a .929 OPS vs. LHP and a .699 mark against righties, so there's probably more DFS than Roto value here, but recent news gives him a fair amount of value in deeper leagues. With the unfortunate news of Miguel Cabrera's season-ending biceps injury, Hicks is slated to see regular duty at first base. With catcher eligibility, his value spikes with this news. Hicks had a .841 OPS in Triple-A two years ago, but his ratios in Triple-A last year were pretty awful – 1.8 BB percentage, 24.8 K percentage. Hicks doesn't appear to have a high ceiling, but with regular playing time, his value in deeper leagues just went up.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIL
Projected: .259/.327/.465
Actual: .285/.355/.535

After the Brewers brought in Christian Yelich via trade and Lorenzo Cain as a free agent, it was expected that Eric Thames would see most of the playing time at first base, but with Thames hurt, that's left Aguilar with more playing time than most projections had him slated for. He's responded with 11 home runs in 197 plate appearances, and even with Thames (thumb) coming back soon, Aguilar looks to have at least earned regular playing time. Of course, the Brewers are already rotating four quality outfielders between three spots, so Aguilar's stock looks likely to take a hit either way once Thames is back in the fold. Regardless, the 30-homer power Aguilar has exhibited isn't a big surprise given the 30 long balls he hit in Triple-A in 2016 and the 16 he had in 311 PA's for the Brewers last year, but the batting average is a nice surprise. He's cut his K percentage from 30.2 percent to 26.9 percent year-over-year, though it remains to be seen whether a .339 BABIP is sustainable. Enjoy the ride, but Aguilar owners can expect to be frustrated once his playing time is cut.

Max Muncy, 2B, LAD
Projected: none
Actual: .277/.395/.631

A few fun facts about this year's Chris Taylor:

• Muncy has a higher WAR than both Carlos Correa and Paul Goldschmidt
• He has a higher ISO than J.D. Martinez
• His slugging percentage (.631) is 68 points higher than that of Aaron Judge

You get the picture. Muncy has been a lifesaver for a Dodgers team missing Corey Seager (elbow), and enduring slow starts from the likes of Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger. Not to mention Justin Turner missing time with injury and hitting just .253 with one home run. Muncy did have a .905 OPS in Triple-A last year, but two previous brief big-league stents left him with a .195 batting average in 215 at-bats. Muncy was signed to a minor league contract last offseason (2017) but never made it to the Dodgers, spending all year in Triple-A Oklahoma City. This year, the injury to Logan Forsythe in April opened the door for Muncy, and obviously he's been far more than the utility option that he was projected to be at the time. He's seem most of his time recently at first base (with Cody Bellinger shifting to CF), but he can play multiple positions and will obviously continue to play most every day given his production.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA
Projected: .278/.328/.398
Actual: .330/.399/.460

Most figured that when the Angels acquired Simmons for Sean Newcomb prior to the 2016 season, that the Angels acquired a glove-first guy. The glove is still elite. But the offense has improved steadily, and this year it's been All-Star caliber. Simmons has improved his BB percent to 9.8 percent this year versus 7.3 percent last year, but oh that strikeout rate. In 244 PA, Simmons has struck out just 10 times for a K percentage of a DiMaggio-like 4.1 percent. Given his 8.9 percent career rate, that's not completely unexpected, but it's still beyond elite. Simmons' .330 BABIP may not be sustainable given his .281 career mark, but that sort of contact rate gives him a pretty high batting average floor.

Daniel Descalso, 3B, ARI
Projected: .238/.331/.371
Actual: .267/.364/.515

With a career .693 OPS, the 31-year-old has been a solid utility guy back to 2011, but this has by far been his best season. Descalso is on pace for career highs in all categories despite a 24.7 K percentage that would be the highest of his career. His walks are also at a career high (13.1 BB percentage), but it's really the power that's been the biggest surprise. He's never had an ISO better than last year's .162, but it's at .248 this season, and the underlying numbers support the spike in power. With a 48.8 percent flyball rate and 43 percent hard hit rate, both of those numbers are well above his career averages (36.3 and 28.7 percent respectively). One thing to note for DFS or roto leagues that allow for daily lineup changes, Descalso has stark home/road and L/R OPS splits:

Home - .967
Road - .781
vs. LHP - .684
vs. RHP - .930

Descalso is not even currently listed at the top of the Arizona depth chart at any position, but that hasn't stopped him from accumulating more RBI than Paul Goldschmidt.

Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN
Projected: .282/.316/.480
Actual: .312/.351/.552

Rosario hit 27 home runs last year en route to a .835 OPS, but he's taken it to another level this year with 14 home runs and five stolen bases. He's still not drawing many walks (5.6 percent BB percent), but his strikeout rate is trending quite nicely the past three years (25.7 percent, 18.0 percent, and this year, 16.9 percent). If you watch him hit though, he swings at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone (38.4 percent vs. league average of 30.2 percent), but he also hits a lot of them given his 72.7 percent outside contact rate (league average: 62.5 percent). He's also posting career-highs in hard hit rate (38.8 percent) and flyball rate (44.6 percent), both of which help drive both power and batting average increases. Rosario hasn't been a huge surprise given how he played last year, but we often see guys with low walk rates regress a little after a breakout season, but Rosario looks to have again taken his offensive game to another level in 2018.

Nick Markakis, OF, ATL
Projected: .276/.352/.388
Actual: .333/.393/.500

A guy having a career season during a free agent year? First time ever, right? Markakis has always had a good plate approach, and this year has been no different. His walks are actually down a little, but his strikeouts are way down, he's hitting the ball harder and getting it off the ground with greater frequency as shown in the below table:

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD
Projected: .271/.310/.467
Actual: .333/.366/.556

It was clear at the time that the trade with the Braves was less about filling a hole in left field than it was a move to reset the team's luxury tax penalty. At the time, it was expected that Kemp would either be DFA'd or traded for pennies on the dollar. Yet here we are in June and Kemp is third among outfielders in All-Star votes and looking like a near-lock to make his first All-Star appearance since 2012. To put this year's number in context, Kemp hit a similar .324/.399/.586 in 2011 when he was robbed of the NL MVP award that went to subsequently disgraced slugger Ryan Braun. We could all see the difference in Kemp's conditioning and attitude when he reported to Glendale, Arizona, for spring training, but, "best shape of his life" stories are a dime a dozen in March, so we took that news with a grain of salt. He's still not walking much (5.4 percent) and we have to think that .396 BABIP comes down soon, but Kemp's hard-hit rate is an elite 45.9 percent, well above last year's 34.7 percent, and his 37.7 percent fly ball rate is also much-improved over last year. We'll probably see some regression given the BABIP, but even if Kemp hits .290/.330/.510 the rest of the way, his final 2018 numbers are going to look pretty nice.

Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE
Projected: 3.92 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Actual: 2.62 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9

Always an entertaining follow on Twitter, Bauer has taken his game to a new level this year and is approaching ace territory. His 3.0 BB/9 isn't as good as some others, but it's improved mightily the last couple years, and this year's 11.4 K/9 ranks fifth in the game for starting pitchers. Bauer has notched double-digits in strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and his 94.5 mph average fastball is the highest of his career. His 2.62 ERA ranks 13th, though a lack of run support and bullpen help has him at just 5-4 on the year. What's most notable about Bauer's approach is that he's throwing his slider at a much higher rate this year (14.8 percent) than last (4.4 percent) while backing off a bit on the fastball. He's also throwing more curveballs in recent seasons, making one wonder about the effects of all that breaking stuff on his arm. We can't worry about that for now, as Bauer looks to be healthy, and pitcher injuries are far from predictable. Remember, this isn't exactly coming out of nowhere, as Bauer was once the No. 3 overall pick in the draft and he did post a 10.0 K/9 last year. I'm sure Arizona fans have to be left dreaming about having Max Scherzer and Bauer 1-2 in their rotation.

Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
Projected: 4.70 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Actual: 2.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.8 BB/9

With a mid-90s fastball, plus-plus slider, sold curve and developing change, Foltynewicz has the stuff of an ace starter, but he just hasn't quite put it together. Below average control and a propensity for allowing more than a home run per nine innings has left Foltynewicz with a lack of consistency and a failure to see stuff develop into production. So far this year, that's far from the case, as he ranks 11th in pitcher WAR, sixth in ERA, and 13th in strikeout rate. He probably won't be able to maintain a 7.4 percent HR/FB rate (11.9 percent for his career), but even some regression there won't hurt too much. Foltynewicz' changeup is grading out slightly above average this year, and he's throwing it a bit more often, while his slider grades out elite, and his fastball has been clocked at 96.5 mph on average. Foltynewicz needs to continue to refine his control and changeup, but the other stuff is so good, that he should be able to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA (minimum) this year.

Blake Treinen, RP, OAK
Projected: 3.42 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
Actual: 0.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

In July last year, the A's acquired Treinen, Sheldon Neuse and Jesus Luzardo in exchange for relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Neuse has been a bust (.504 OPS at Triple-A), but Treinen has been one of the better relievers in the game, Luzardo has developed into a top-five pitching prospect. Oh, and the A's saved about $10 million on the deal. Treinen flamed out as the Nationals' closer early last year before being shipped to Oakland and finishing with a 2.13 ERA with his new team. This year he's been spectacular as the A's closer, allowing just one run in his last 19 innings to take his ERA under 1.00. Treinen is averaging 97 mph with his fastball while allowing just one home run in 31 innings. It's debatable whether he can keep this up, but with the way he's pitching, it seems a 2.00 ERA the rest of the way may be his floor.