Mound Musings: To Punt or Not to Punt

Let me start by saying I'm looking for an interactive conversation on this topic. I would really like to hear YOUR observations, experiences, preferences and opinions. In many leagues, especially deeper leagues, there may be owners who opt to ignore one pitching category in an attempt to dominate in one (or more) other categories. I will note that I have pretty much always employed the Option A approach with a mix of six or seven starting pitchers, and two or three relievers depending on weekly matchups, injuries, and later in the year, opportunities to pick up points in one of the scoring categories.

I am also listing two other options (Option B and Option C) where an owner overloads his pitching staff with starting pitchers or relief pitchers – in standard formats, usually closers with some high strikeout, high leverage nonclosers. With judicious managing, and a well thought out roster, all three options offer positives and negatives.

Option A: Traditional 7/2 or 6/3 Pitching Lineup

This is probably the most frequent approach to pitching in fantasy leagues. The owner drafts a mix of starting pitchers and closers, and then deploys them, typically using six or seven starters and two or three relievers – usually closers – depending on the depth of talent for each role, and current standing in the various scoring categories.

There are advantages. Those distributions, with anticipated performance, tend to keep the team competitive in all pitching categories, and with a deeper pool of potential replacements in case of injuries or poor performance, it's theoretically easier to plug any gaps in your staff. Starting pitchers come and go, while bullpen roles change (even more so in today's fame), so an astute owner can continually tweak his staff while reacting to opportunities to move up in a scoring category. That might mean using an extra closer if the saves category is tight, or opting for an extra starter if more wins or strikeouts are needed to improve your overall standing.

There are, however, some potential pitfalls. Most notably, especially in deeper leagues, a weak fifth, sixth and/or seventh starter can prove disastrous to your WHIP and ERA. Starting pitching, while plentiful in name, can be very scarce in reality. Regular readers are familiar with the "do no harm" principle – avoiding pitchers that can do considerable damage, often surpassing the benefits they provide. Many back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers struggle to get deep enough in games to generate many strikeouts or to even qualify for wins, they destroy WHIPs and ERAs, and never get save chances. Not a recipe for success. Conversely, closer roles can be highly volatile. Poor performance and injuries can leave you without enough save chances to maintain your pitching balance. Chasing the "next" closer on the wire can be a challenge.

Option B: Punting Saves, Primarily Starters Pitching Lineup

Some owners will occasionally decide their best course is to almost ignore the saves category while concentrating on the other scoring categories. It would seem to be a logical tradeoff, with more starting pitchers providing more chances for wins, and the opportunity to garner more strikeouts. Further, by deploying even one quality closer, the saves category may not be a total write-off. And, if you build big enough leads in the wins and strikeout categories, later in the season, you might be able to safely trade for another closer and pick up points in the saves category without giving up points in other places. A strong long reliever can also be an asset here, and not having to guess who will be the next closer in line somewhere can make for more relaxed evenings.

Personally, I think this is the most difficult option to successfully employ. Besides the aforementioned "do no harm" necessity that requires extreme care in finding and using starting pitchers who are less likely to wreck your peripherals, you need to focus on pitchers toiling for winning teams (more opportunities for wins) and pitchers with higher K/9 ratios (higher strikeout totals). You also want pitchers who frequently pitch deeper into games (for both of those reasons).The problem is, by definition, those are the same pitchers other owners will be looking at on draft day. Of course, the deeper the league, the more diluted the starting pitcher pool, magnifying the required focus.

Option C: Punting Wins, Primarily Relievers Pitching Lineup

Are you a serious relief pitching junkie? Do you derive pleasure from shuffling bullpen depth charts on an hourly basis? Do you routinely watch the seventh, eighth and ninth innings of a half dozen games every day? Does the act of drafting a closer on draft day automatically move your projected heir apparent for that closer to the top of your draft board as a handcuff? This might be your calling!

In this variation, the owner tries to collect several closers, perhaps a few quality nonclosers with the potential to eventually step into that role, and a handful of starting pitchers that can hopefully keep your head above water in both the wins and strikeout categories. There are actually numerous advantages to this approach. These pitchers, in numbers, can quickly pile up a lot of saves, and because they tend to pitch in critical situations, they can vulture occasional wins. They usually provide solid WHIP and ERA stats. They are often high K/9 pitchers, which helps offset the reduced number of innings pitched, and because the role is becoming more fluid all the time, there's often a supply of replacements available that usually fluctuates between a gentle trickle and a torrent throughout the season. Sounds easy enough, right?

Unfortunately, there are a few thorns for which to watch. With so many role changes in bullpens, this can be a tough assignment for the casual fantasy player. The changes can happen quickly, requiring immediate adjustments, or gradually, requiring what amounts to a crystal ball to stay ahead of the curve. Additionally, your staff will toss fewer innings, which means your few starting pitchers must be capable of posting very good WHIPs and ERAs, as one bad outing by the relievers can be disastrous in those categories. A blow up will happen from time-to-time, so it's imperative that your starters and relievers are not often a part of a "do no harm" exception.

So, which of the options appeal most to you?

Here are a few favorite nonstarter/noncloser relievers to consider:

• Josh Hader (Brewers) – With 72 strikeouts in just 37 innings, a microscopic WHIP and ERA, plus a couple wins and a handful of saves, Hader is what they mean when they say "super reliever" these days. He's so valuable in this role that the Brewers could afford to use him as closer only when Corey Knebel was hurt. His contributions for a fantasy team far outdistance a mediocre starter.

• Andrew Miller (Indians) – When you look up "super reliever" in the dictionary, you'll find Miller's picture. He was probably the first of the breed, and became the blueprint, even signing a contract for closer-like money when the Indians never intended to use him fulltime in that role. He's been banged up this year, which has tarnished his numbers, but when he's healthy, he's a fantasy mainstay.

• Adam Ottavino (Rockies) – His walk rate is still high, but he is so difficult to hit (only eight hits in 28-plus innings) he keeps his overall peripherals in the elite range, even pitching in Coors Field. He has been out with an oblique injury but is expected back soon. In his absence, the Rockies pen has been a shambles, and I expect to see his critical innings role increase as the season progresses.

• Chad Green (Yankees) – I limited pitchers on this list to one per team, but both Dellin Betances and David Robertson were also considerations. With the explosive Yankees' offense capable of coming from behind or breaking a tie late in games, these guys are prime candidates for vulture wins, while posting great peripherals and piling up a lot of strikeouts. Any of the three can help you.

• Amir Garrett (Reds) – Garrett is just arriving on the "super reliever" scene. His secondary stuff is still a bit too inconsistent to be trusted facing a lineup multiple times in a game, but in one or two inning bursts, he's a handful. He hasn't provided a lot of fantasy value yet, pitching for a poor team in lower leverage situations earlier in the year, but I think he's one on which to take a chance.

• Seranthony Dominguez (Phillies) – I just love this guy's future, but now the fantasy world is catching on to him so he's been a popular pickup. He throws strikes with filthy stuff, and the Phillies are treating him more and more like a "super reliever" despite very much needing a true closer. He may yet be pushed into a traditional closer role, but his value is likely to increase in any gig.
  

• I watched Carlos Rodon make his first start of the season for the white Sox, and I liked what I saw. There was a little rust, as he missed his spots a few times, especially early in the outing. He allowed a couple long balls, and there was some sloppy fielding behind him, but he showed velocity and sharp movement.

• Derek Holland continues to tease us with just enough to keep me watching. I liked him quite a bit before injuries set him back but he still flashes glimpses of decent stuff. He made a nice start against the Nationals, and he could serve as a match-up option in deeper leagues with just a bit better command.

• The Angels will continue to monitor the status of Shohei Ohtani. He's on the disabled list with a strained UCL, which can elicit talk of possible Tommy John surgery, but he has received a platelet-rich plasma injection they hope will help him avoid surgery as it did with Garrett Richards a couple of years ago.

• Since returning to the Cardinals' rotation, Carlos Martinez has issued 12 walks while recording just 23 outs over two starts. His command has always been just adequate, but his elite stuff compensated. This recent stretch is hopefully just a little rust after missing a month, but it's enough to cause some concern.

• Sometimes a pitcher and catcher "click," and the results can be dramatic. Such seems to be the case with the Yankees' Sonny Gray and his designated catcher, Austin Romine. Gray lets Romine call the pitches, and he executes them. There are positives, and the team is supporting it. I see good things ahead.

• This one is for the longshot players (with very deep benches). When Padres lefty Matt Strahm came up with the Royals, I liked his stuff, but he couldn't command his off-speed stuff. They are stretching him out, and he looked impressive last time out. Petco Park will help too, so he might be worth a look.
  

The Mets have lost Jeurys Familia to shoulder soreness, and that often results in an unpredictable return date. He was struggling before hitting the disabled list, possibly as the injury initially appeared. I expect Robert Gsellman to fill in. For fans of mystery shows, last week it was Nate Jones, and this week it's Joakim Soria. Tune in next week for another exciting episode of Name the White Sox Closer. The Giants now have Mark Melancon back in their bullpen, but they have so far stuck to the plan of having Hunter Strickland serve as their closer. I expect that to last so long as Strickland can continue getting the job done. The Mariners have 21 one-run wins (six more than any other team). That's a windfall for Edwin Diaz owners. The Astros may be slipping back into unpredictability. As Ken Giles has struggled a bit recently, they have indicated Hector Rondon could get more save chances. Giles needs a string of successes to solidify his spot. Other teams, in this case the Padres, have shown the willingness to share the role occasionally. I'm guessing Brad Hand remains the primary closer, at least until he's dealt, which is a very real possibility, but if an early critical situation calls for a lefty, his heir-apparent, right-handed Kirby Yates, could get some ninth inning work.