FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.

A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.

Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.

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Pitcher

Cash: Max Scherzer, WAS at MIA ($12,000) -- Scherzer is the most expensive option on the board Friday night, and rightfully so thanks to a road matchup against a Marlins offense that has been extremely weak against right-handed pitching the season (their 76 wRC+ against righties is the second-worst team split on the slate behind the Rockies vs. RHP at 61). Over the past calendar year, Corey Kluber has better ratios than Scherzer, but he draws a tougher matchup with the Astros visiting Progressive Field. Additionally, Scherzer has the edge in strikeout rate during that span, with a slate-leading 37.1% K%.

Also consider: James Paxton, SEA vs. MIN ($9,700), Noah Syndergaard, NYM at MIL ($10,600), Luis Severino, NYY vs. LAA ($10,300), Corey Kluber, CLE vs.HOU ($11,000)

GPP: Ross Stripling, LAD vs. SD ($6,700) -- Before thinking about Stripling, be absolutely certain that you want to steer away from the top arms listed above, as I have no reservations about using aces in tournaments, especially when there are several to choose from. Luis Severino might finally get some of the respect (see also: higher ownership rates) he deserves, and the appeal of using him (or James Paxton) is the flexibility provided under the cap on a Coors Field slate. As Stripling goes, he's interesting for two reasons. One, he's pitched very well, mostly in a bullpen role, since last season for the Dodgers. He's done it with increased slider usage, which has led a spike in strikeouts. The second reason for targeting him Friday is the opponent, as the Padres continue to struggle offensively with an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching along with a 25.5% K%.

Also consider…

Jon Gray, COL vs. CIN ($7,000) -- It's a great price for his skills. Not for the faint of heart with the start being at home, of course.

Mike Minor, TEX vs. KC ($6,800) -- It's been feast or famine this season for Minor in his move back into a starting role. He's topped 30 FanDuel points in five of his last eight, topping out with a 52-point effort against the Jays back on April 7.

Catcher/First Base

Jose Abreu, CHW at DET ($4,000) -- There are a handful of similar options to think about Friday, but Abreu matches up with Mike Fiers in a game with a strong over/under total (9.0) and he should work well as a cash-game play and in tournaments. Abreu's splits against right-handed pitching include an .878 OPS (.294/.348/.530) since the start of 2017, placing him among the top-10 options on the board, and he moves up even further when you remove the bats ahead of him with more difficult matchups. Aside from a matchup against Fiers, Abreu and the White Sox are facing the league's 21st-ranked bullpen in terms of WAR in this series.

Other options to consider include: Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900 vs. Sean Manaea and the A's -- he continues to crush lefties), Tyler Austin at $3,200 (home against Andrew Heaney) and Joey Votto ($4,500 at Coors against Jon Gray).

Second Base

Whit Merrifield, KC at TEX ($3,500) -- Like scones, I was very skeptical of Merrifield for about a year, but I'm ready to admit that I was wrong...at least about Merrifield. His placement in the lineup, paired with an improved eye at the plate (he's nearly doubled his walk rate from last season), and a righty-lefty matchup against Mike Minor in the heat at Arlington are enough to push him into my lineups as a fixture at second base Friday. If you're using Merrifield in tournaments, root for the masses to pay up for Ozzie Albies ($4,600 vs. lefty Eduardo Rodriguez) and Scooter Gennett at Coors ($4,400) to keep the ownership rate reasonable. Two pivots I like with similar prices are Cesar Hernandez ($3,800) against Sam Gaviglio and Yangervis Solarte ($3,400) against Zach Eflin in the Blue Jays-Phillies matchup.

Third Base

Johan Camargo, ATL at BOS ($2,600) -- Camargo has been hitting the ball in the air more often in the upper levels of the minors and with the Braves, and he's been particularly productive against left-handed pitching since getting the call last season (.340/.373/.577). The likely low lineup position limits Camargo most to GPP use, but he's an easy path to a high over/under total game on Friday's slate (10.0) at Fenway, and his ability as a switch-hitter makes him less susceptible to getting wiped out by a bullpen specialist in the late innings.
Of course, paying up for Nolan Arenado ($4,700) at home against Sal Romano is fine if you're saving money elsewhere, and Justin Turner at $3,900 against a lefty (Clayton Richard) is extremely appealing as well as he's posted an 1.178 OPS against southpaws since the start of last season.

Shortstop

Jean Segura, SEA vs. MIN ($2,600) -- Segura is usually a go-to option when the Mariners face a left-handed starter, but the extremely low price for a very good player, high in the Seattle lineup, against a young right-handed starter (Fernando Romero), at a position that loaded with bloated salaries for the top-end guys (who mostly have difficult matchups) checks the boxes to make him one of my preferred options Friday. I'm comfortable using Segura in cash-games and in tournaments at this price, given the state of the position on this 14-game slate.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon, COL vs. CIN ($4,600) -- It's a relative bargain to see Blackmon under $5K with a home lefty-righty matchup against the Reds. Sal Romano and a parade of Cincinnati relievers without Raisel Iglesias is an extremely favorable setup, and while Blackmon's price being slightly deflated could make him the most highly-owned bat in this matchup, this has the look and feel of very good chalk. Blackmon has a 144 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at Coors Field over the past two calendar years.

Nelson Cruz, SEA vs. MIN ($3,200) -- The thinking with Cruz is very similar to the thinking with Jean Segura above. Usually it's Cruz against lefties at a low price that pushes him high up the list of considerations in the outfield. A closer look at his recent splits shows a .290/.348/.553 line against right-handed pitching, and with Twins rookie Fernando Romero taking the ball on the road for his fifth career MLB start, the Mariners are priced down in a situation that could make them an intriguing stacking option Friday.

Jay Bruce, NYM at MIL ($2,600) -- Bruce and the Mets get a park boost for their four-game series with the Brewers, which should help get the team's slumping bats back on track. More importantly, Bruce has a .262/.337/.508 line against right-handed pitching since start of last season, and he gets a matchup against Junior Guerra on Friday night. Guerra has looked more like the pitcher he was during his surprising 2016 than he did in his disappointing (and injury-marred 2017), but his occasional tendency to serve up homers is enough to push Bruce into lineups as a value play in the outfield.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek was a frequent writer and media host. During his tenure, he'd been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also had hosted RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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