FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

This week's Friday slate is about as good as it gets.

There is a deep catalog of useable arms (a dozen?). Two of the best pitchers in the game are matching up on the West Coast when Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw open up the Nats-Dodgers series. And perhaps most importantly, Super Troopers 2 is now in theaters.

From a weather perspective, Colorado looks like the only concern, which is pretty standard.

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Pitcher

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at ATL ($10,700) -- The only thing I don't like about this matchup is that it's on the road. Thor gets the edge as the option on this slate since Justin Verlander costs $400 more, but it's pretty much a 1a/1b situation, since Verlander is also on the road at the park formerly known as The Cell, facing a White Sox team with plenty of swing-and-miss potential. As the Braves continue their rebuild, the bottom half of the lineup will eventually get stronger, but it's a top-heavy offense now with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Ender Inciarte pulling the weight in the first three spots, and secondary contributors like Ryan Flaherty (156 wRC+ vs. RHP), Preston Tucker (162), Dansby Swanson (162) and Kurt Suzuki (202) simply off to hot starts.

Also consider: Justin Verlander, HOU at CWS ($11,100), Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. WAS ($11,500), Max Scherzer, WAS at LAD ($11,400)

Cheap(ish) GPP Consideration: Chris Archer, TAM vs. MIN ($8,000) -- Archer's start against the Phillies on Saturday was very hard to watch as his command wavered throughout the four-inning outing. He hasn't turned in a quality start yet this season, having completed six innings just once in his first four starts, and that happened on Opening Day when he allowed four runs on six hits over six innings to the Red Sox. Fortunately, Archer has been missing bats and inducing grounders at his usual clip to this point, carrying a 10.5 K/9 and 1.39 GB/FB ratio through four turns.

GPP Fade: With plenty of top-end and mid-tiers arms on this slate, ownership rates should be reasonably well distributed. I'm not worried about fading pitchers, but it might be a good night to reduce the exposure to the Cubs-Rockies matchup in Colorado. The thinking here is that there are fewer high over/under totals to target with so many good pitchers taking the ball, which will keep interest in Coors pretty high.

Catcher/First Base

Jose Martinez, STL vs. CIN ($3,800) -- Martinez against a lefty will always standout as a matchup to target, especially when the price is under $4,000 on FanDuel. He's picked up right where he left off last season, maintaining an ISO over .200, walking at a double-digit rate (13.5 BB percentage), and even improving his K percent early on (from 19.5 percent to 9.5 percent). Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan has struggled to find his way as a big-league starter, and his splits against righties include a 1.70 HR/9 and .333 wOBA against right-handed hitters since the start of 2016.

As pivots (or for consideration in the utility spot, and in GPPs): Justin Bour draws Jhoulys Chacin in Milwaukee with a huge park boost at Miller Park ($3,300), and Buster Posey faces lefty Andrew Heaney in Anaheim ($3,300). Posey's OPS against lefties since the start of last season (1.016) is the third-best split on the board among C/1B options behind Martinez and Freddie Freeman (who of course, draws Syndergaard on Friday).

Second Base

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. CWS ($4,100) -- The mid-tier at the keystone is bad (again) Friday, and that should push a lot of interest to Altuve, Asdrubal Cabrera against Braves lefty Sean Newcomb ($3,900), and likely, to Javy Baez ($4,500 vs. Jon Gray at Coors) and DJ LeMahieu ($4,400 against Kyle Hendricks). Since the Coors options are both in a righty-righty setup with the expected park-inflated price, I'm rolling with Altuve or Cabrera as my two main options on FanDuel. (It should be noted, however, that Baez has an .801 OPS against righties since the start of last season.) The White Sox still had not revealed their plans with Friday's start at the time of this writing, but honestly, I'm not sure it matters who they throw out there against Altuve since he could cost $1,000 more in a matchup like this and it would be completely justified.

Third Base

Rafael Devers, BOS at OAK ($3,600) -- Devers went 7-for-14 with two homers and seven RBI in the three-game series against the Angels to begin the week, and now he'll get a three-game set to tee off on a weak Oakland rotation. With Devers, it looks like a situation similar to the early pricing on Ozzie Albies, where we're going to look back on the weeks where he was readily available in the mid-$3,000 range and laugh when he's consistently up above $4,000 for the bulk of the season. Graveman misses bats less than nearly every other starter on the board Friday, which is particularly problematic against a deep Boston lineup that continues to do a good job limiting whiffs.

Others in the mix: Travis Shaw ($3,600) at home against Trevor Richards (chalky) and Miguel Andujar against Marco Estrada at Yankee Stadium ($2,600).

Shortstop

Jedd Gyorko, STL vs. CIN ($2,400) -- Gyorko should send Kolten Wong to the bench with Friday's matchup against lefty Brandon Finnegan. Consider his placement among shortstops on FanDuel to be a gift, since he's not really going to play there much in 2018 as long as Paul DeJong is healthy. Since the start of last season, Gyorko is hitting .327/.385/.587 (.971 OPS) against lefties -- an OPS more than 70 points better than the next closest shortstop on the board Friday when looking at the splits against the handedness of opposing starting pitchers.

Addison Russell is only $3,300 in Coors, and while he'll get more attention than usual because of it, he's in consideration as an alternative to Gyorko for those who can't or don't want to pony up the extra money for Didi Gregorius ($4,600) or Carlos Correa ($4,500). For tournaments, I'm more interested in Zack Cozart ($3,500), who is playable with a home matchup against Jeff Samardzija, and Jean Segura ($2,700) at a deflated price against lefty Mike Minor in Arlington.

Outfield

Christian Yelich, MIL vs. MIA ($3,800) -- Yelich appears to have made it through back-to-back games unscathed following his return from an oblique injury earlier this week. The early signs have been very positive around the injury, as Yelich has lowered his groundball rate to 48.0 percent to begin 2018, while scalding the ball often and posting a gaudy 56.0 percent hard-hit rate along the way (his career mark is 35.4 percent). The Brewers are facing righty Trevor Richards on Friday, a 24-year-old who made just 14 starts above High-A before getting added to the Miami rotation to begin the season. Richards was the Marlins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017, and he may go on to become an occasional season-long streamer for favorable home matchups, but a tough road matchup in Milwaukee makes him a target.

Nelson Cruz, SEA at TEX ($3,500) -- I'm very intrigued by Mike Minor's transition back to being a big-league starter, in part because he added more velocity in the Kansas City bullpen than we typically see from a starter shifting to a relief role. Since the start of 2016, Cruz's 152 wRC+ against lefties ranks 11th in MLB (min. 50 plate appearances). While we figure out whether Minor can successful make the move back to starting, picking on him occasionally with high-end right-handed bats is appropriate.

Nomar Mazara, TEX vs. SEA ($2,800) -- Felix Hernandez nearly matched the strikeout total from his first three starts (8) with a seven-K performance against the A's on Sunday, but I remain more interested in the flaws (89.1 mph average fastball velocity, career-low 6.3 K/9 through four starts) than the occasionally successful outings at this point. My draft-season take on Mazara was that he can be the Marcell Ozuna of 2018, a player capable of taking a big leap in the power department, while also turning in a much higher than expected batting average. Early-season injuries to the supporting cast around him will likely cause his season-long value to lag for a bit, but I think the injury-riddled version of the Texas lineup can capably handle the current model of King Felix, and Mazara's price makes him one of the best values across all positions Friday.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek was a frequent writer and media host. During his tenure, he'd been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also had hosted RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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