Mound Musings: Baby, It’s COLD Outside!

Now about three weeks into the season, we can see both encouraging surprises and discouraging implosions – not to mention some almost unbelievable weather. Last Sunday, there were six games cancelled because of bad weather (that's the most since September, 2008). Many owners of pitchers falling well short of preseason expectations are questioning their predictive capabilities. Some deserve the concern, but others might be about ready to level out those ugly April numbers. The trick is knowing the difference. Some poor performances can be tied to minor injuries – or this season, in many cases, significant injuries – rain, snow, bad luck, mechanical inconsistency, tough matchups, or a full-blown combination of all these things. The question is, should you exercise patience, or cut your losses and look for help in all the right places?

Evaluating pitchers posting bad numbers:

Most pitchers go through spells of inconsistency. Maybe they had a short spring training and are working to put all the pieces together. Mix in a little bad luck with some command issues and a few bad innings can turn into some horrendous stats. It can be frustrating to be sure, but is it time to panic?

Weather has been particularly problematic this season. Everything from monsoons to blizzards, to just plain arctic winds have plagued much of the country. I'll reach back to my own experiences with regard to bad weather. I'm from the Midwest, so I pitched in less than ideal conditions at times. I might also mention that my winter sport was dog sledding, so snow and cold generally weren't an overall concern for me. However, I did find that cold, wet weather did impact my pitching effectiveness. I didn't really have trouble getting or staying loose (many pitchers and hitters do), but I did often feel like the ball was "slippery" or more difficult to grip. Maybe it was the actual ball, or maybe it was reduced feeling in my fingers. It seemed to impact my control, especially on breaking pitches, which lead to me missing my spots more often (not my strong suit even in ideal conditions), so I threw mores pitches and made more location mistakes. Strikeouts went up, but so did walks and pitch counts. I'm seeing the same in MLB.

The bottom line is, there are many reasons for pitcher ineffectiveness, especially early in the year. Some pitchers are slow starters, and it takes them a few starts to get into their rhythm. Weather can magnify that. Perhaps it's nagging (and sometimes unreported) injuries that are a factor. To further complicate things, with so many injuries, there's a seemingly never-ending stream of questionable arms arriving to fill those holes in the rotation. Early on, as teams try to delay the arbitration clock on their best young arms, these pitchers are often low-value, nonprospects. Your challenge is to sort through the factors and then decide who deserves your patience.

Here's a list of five starting pitchers you might have felt pretty good about having as key members of your rotation after draft day. Unfortunately, whether because of possible injuries, bad weather or maybe just bad luck, the early returns on these pitchers haven't come close to meeting expectations. Hopefully things will change. Should you be worried? There are certainly others who qualify, but these guys are at the top of the list. For now, let's look for sunny skies, warm breezes, an "out to lunch" sign on the training room door and better results!

Here is a rotation of strugglers, and what I expect going forward:

• Yu Darvish, 1.53 WHIP, 6.00 ERA (Cubs) – I'm somewhat at a loss to explain the struggles of Darvish. I anticipated a huge season in 2017, and while his overall numbers were decent, he suffered from inconsistency. He has split two awful outings with a solid start in his first three 2018 outings – more of the same. It would be understandable to raise expectations with him signing with a young, exciting team like the Cubs, but the team has struggled along with him. Darvish features one of the deepest repertoires in the game with variations that amount to about eight different offerings. That should be a huge benefit, but he needs to be able to consistently command those pitches – at least a few of them – and that hasn't been happening. Each game, sometimes each inning, a couple look good and others are virtually unusable. I'm not ready to devalue him. He's simply too talented. In fact, if his owner in your league is overly frustrated, I'd be tempted to put him on the "buy low" target list.

• Chris Archer, 1.69 WHIP, 7.84 ERA (Rays) – Archer is just one pitcher on this list who suffers from similar poor performance symptoms. He's pretty much a two-pitch hurler who throws fastballs and sliders nearly 95 percent of the time. The nasty slider generates a lot of strikeouts – his most endearing production – but MLB hitters lay off everything else and wait for those two offerings. He can also overthrow at times in an attempt to overpower hitters, but that only straightens things out leading to a high percentage of hard hit balls. These tendencies are too predictable from a fantasy standpoint. You can now add the loss for an extended period of center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (thumb injury). One of the best defensive outfielders in the game, he often turned some of those hard hit balls into outs. Archer's numbers will likely moderate to some extent, but I don't see him being the true top-of-the-rotation starter many fantasy owners were looking for when they added him on draft day.

• Luis Castillo, 1.28 WHIP, 6.75 ERA (Reds) – He was one of the more hyped young starters on draft day, leading to some pretty high expectations. In my preseason analysis, I tended to promote a measure of caution with him. Castillo has a big arm but he's also vulnerable, albeit maybe less than Archer, resulting from a still-developing arsenal. His fastball is down a couple of ticks (95.5 mph) from last season, but it's still early, and it is cold. My bigger concerns are focused on some possible vulnerability to left-handed hitters and the long ball. He has a decent change-up at times but not always. He needs to limit baserunners in his hitter-friendly home park, as he appears to be capable of missing out over the plate and serving up a few homeruns. Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of room for growth. Before joining the Reds last year, he had less than 90 innings above High-A ball, I just think it might be prudent to temper your expectations a bit until he has had time to further refine his secondary pitches.

• Marcus Stroman, 1.91 WHIP, 7.98 ERA (Blue Jays) – There are advantages and disadvantages associated with extreme groundball pitchers – and no one induces more ground balls than Stroman. Pitchers like him rely heavily on pinpoint location and very tight infield defense. Stroman hasn't had either factor on his side early in 2018. Too many hard hit balls, too many walks and mediocre defense (the team's best infield defender, Gift Ngoepe, doesn't hit enough to play every day) have led to a lot of baserunners. The advantage – baserunners being erased with double plays, just hasn't helped enough. Stroman's velocity has been about what you would expect, but his offerings aren't as crisp, often floating up into the prime hitting zone, and he has had problems spotting all of his pitches. Additionally, there were reports of shoulder inflammation during spring training. That sets off warning sirens. Shoulder woes often linger, or worsen, as the season progresses. The sample size is far too small to panic, but Stroman needs to get into his rhythm soon. He's tenacious, but I have concerns.

• Rich Hill, 1.60 WHIP, 6.00 ERA (Dodgers) – I might be tempted to use cold weather as an excuse for one of my favorite soft-tossers, but Hill hasn't visited the Midwest yet this year. His first start was solid, but the next two were pretty disappointing, including a thumping at the hands of a hot Arizona squad where he apparently suffered a cracked fingernail. The 38-year-old master of the curveball tossed 135 innings last season, the most he has logged since 2007, so the Dodgers are being judicious with his workload. Expect that to continue, at least for the short term, but having watched a few of his innings this year, I don't expect the poor numbers to last. This assumes the somewhat more concerning blister issues he dealt with in 2017 are behind him, and his showcase yacker can again baffle opposing hitters. I'm counting on it.
  

• It's always a bit alarming when a really good starter gets erratic in the middle of a game. Case in point, Garrett Richards of the Angels. He seems to get over-amped, and it results in him speeding everything up, with his landing foot coming down too early. He's so talented, and he'll learn to stay within himself.

• I was disappointed to see Dinelson Lamet scheduled for Tommy John surgery, but I have my eye on another Padres' arm. I watched Joey Lucchesi in his last start, and while I'm a bit skittish about pitchers with funky deliveries, I think Lucchesi has both deception and decent stuff on his side. He's worth a shot.

• He can still be a little erratic with his pitch location at times, but Rays' southpaw Blake Snell is moving forward. His start against Texas was impressive, albeit against an injury-riddled lineup. He has very good stuff and misses a lot of bats, but the team he plays in front of isn't likely to give him a lot of run support.

• The Mets' Jason Vargas is probably ready to return from the disabled list, but the team appears to be taking their time in bringing him back. They don't currently have a rotation spot for him, so they may exercise a little patience to see if Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler or Steven Matz help make their decision.

• The Angels' ace Shohei Ohtani proved he is human in his last start against the red-hot Red Sox. Maybe the schedule contributed (his normal day Sunday was lost due to bad weather) or maybe it was a blister he has been dealing with, but he just never got into a rhythm and departed after just two innings.

• It was a true pleasure watching a vintage Johnny Cueto in his outing against Arizona. Despite a gimpy ankle, he was sharp. Last season he didn't have a good feel for his off-speed stuff, but he was locating on the edges, his breaking pitches were crisp rather than rolling, and his changeup displayed great depth.
  

I have to believe the Brad Ziegler days of closing will soon come to an end in Miami. I have no doubt they would like to showcase him to increase his trade value, but it's time to move on. Kyle Barraclough has been working the eighth inning and could be next in line, but I still think Drew Steckenrider eventually claims the job. You can now pencil in Keynan Middleton as the Angels new closer, at least until he gives them a reason to reconsider. He's their best bet. The Rangers' Keone Kela logged two wins in two days after entering tie games in the ninth inning. Others picked up the saves, but he came on to face the heart of the opponent's order and appears to have the trust of his manager. The Reds are no doubt thrilled with Raisel Iglesias, but I don't think they can come up with a way to have him start games, pitch in middle relief and close. Fantasy owners who jumped on the Greg Holland wagon are wondering why Bud Norris is still closing for the Cardinals. Just be patient. They didn't sign Holland to set up Norris. He has really struggled, but this is equivalent to his spring training. The Astros are the leaders in head scratching usage so far this season. Presumptive closer Ken Giles has been bypassed in favor of both Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock at times, even when he's apparently rested and available. This hints at a lack of confidence in Giles.