This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
The miserable sound of whistles, grunts, groans and shoulder pads crashing together while brains shake about inside skulls mean football is here and baseball is in its waning months. We have fewer than 60 games left in the regular season as we continue to chase our hopes of a league title this year. What we can all ill afford now is some of our key players going into the tank here down the stretch. Sadly, there are a number of notable players who limped along in July. Let's look at some and see what ails them and what may be in store over these final ~50 games.
Mitch Moreland: We know Moreland had the impossible job of trying to replace David Ortiz's spot in the lineup. Early on, Mitchie Twobags was getting it done with doubles, but July was horrific for Moreland as he had one of the league's lowest wRC+. A league average wRC+ is 100; Moreland had an MLB-low 5 on July 29 (min. 65 PA), jumping to 20 in the last two days of the month to finish sixth lowest. If we look at his xwOBA-wOBA from the article last month, we see that Moreland's actual wOBA is more than 100 points below his expected one. That said, his expected wOBA is .299, which is a below average offensive player. Put him down for next year in the last year's trash you can buy on the cheap and hope he pulls a Yonder Alonso,
The miserable sound of whistles, grunts, groans and shoulder pads crashing together while brains shake about inside skulls mean football is here and baseball is in its waning months. We have fewer than 60 games left in the regular season as we continue to chase our hopes of a league title this year. What we can all ill afford now is some of our key players going into the tank here down the stretch. Sadly, there are a number of notable players who limped along in July. Let's look at some and see what ails them and what may be in store over these final ~50 games.
Mitch Moreland: We know Moreland had the impossible job of trying to replace David Ortiz's spot in the lineup. Early on, Mitchie Twobags was getting it done with doubles, but July was horrific for Moreland as he had one of the league's lowest wRC+. A league average wRC+ is 100; Moreland had an MLB-low 5 on July 29 (min. 65 PA), jumping to 20 in the last two days of the month to finish sixth lowest. If we look at his xwOBA-wOBA from the article last month, we see that Moreland's actual wOBA is more than 100 points below his expected one. That said, his expected wOBA is .299, which is a below average offensive player. Put him down for next year in the last year's trash you can buy on the cheap and hope he pulls a Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak or Logan Morrison.
Jonathan Villar: He has been as terrible in 2017 as he was awesome in 2016. He still has 20 steals despite a .277 OBP, but his batting average has tanked, his strikeout rate is up, walk rate is down and he cannot score because he cannot get on base. July saw him hit .217/.258/.265 and that's with a .340 BABIP. If anything, he has been a bit lucky to even post that type of number. The walks are getting worse as are his strikeouts. The only reason you are using him at this point is if you are absolutely desperate for speed over the final two months of the season because the bat has fallen way off and is not showing any signs of coming back.
Jose Bautista: Bautista was seeking six years and $125-plus million this offseason and ended up with a one year guarantee of $18M with a mutual option next year and a vesting option in 2019. The way Bautista is playing this season, it is unlikely Toronto exercises that option next season. His .215/.324/.385 line this season is his worst as a full-time player and a continued decline from the big 2014-2015 seasons. He is still walking, but his strikeout rate is up to a career-high 24 percent, and he simply isn't making the type of consistent hard contact that has been a trademark of his career in Toronto. His xwOBA in July was .265 and his actual wOBA was .251, which helps explain his .162/.274/.293 July line. If he is traded in August before the waiver trade deadline, the new fan base will be excited by the name but might not realize just how bad he has been this season and especially in July.
Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman homered twice Sunday, becoming the all-time home-run leader in Washington, D.C., baseball history with 239. In July, his line was a rather terrible .234/.282/.455 that looks a lot like the lines he was putting up the past few seasons as he fought through injuries. His xwOBA and wOBA are nearly identical so he's doing what he should be doing with the way he is swinging the bat. Needless to say, his bat has cooled off tremendously as the year has gone on, as has his contact:
Miguel Cabrera: To say it has been a terrible season for Cabrera would be an understatement. His batting average has fallen nearly 60 points from last year and he will hit below .265 for the first time in his career barring a late-season turnaround. His 13 homers are his fewest since his rookie season of 2003 when he hit 12 in half a season and his strikeout rate this year is only bested by that same rookie season. Those who own him have patiently waited for him to come out of this prolonged slump, but July gave owners little to be excited about as Cabrera triple-slashed .237/.301/.344 in 103 plate appearances. He had difficulty making hard contact in July and his overall offensive production was below average for the most of the last six weeks:
Cabrera needs to make more hard contact to turn this around, but things have certainly not looked good lately.
Jackie Bradley Jr.: In terms of his triple-slash line, JBJ's 2017 looks a lot like his 2016. His batting average and OBP are single-digits apart, but the slugging percentage has seen a near 50-point drop. His walk rate as well as his strikeout rate are also right where they were last year as well. The power just has not translated into consistent over-the-fence power as his ISO is down for a third consecutive season and he batted .231/.263/.333 in July but has really had plate discipline issues lately:
If Bradley is going to turn things around, those two rates need to change directions. He is expanding his strike zone, chasing a number of pitches out of the zone and doing himself no favors in doing so.
Corey Dickerson: Dickerson made the All-Star Game by leading the American League in hitting until Jose Altuve took things to another level. Around that same time, Dickerson began having his own issues and limped through July with a .220/.273/.429 line while striking out 33 percent of the time. Dickerson spent most of the month swinging through pitches in the zone as well as out of the zone and frankly looked impatiently lost at the plate.
What we see here is a batter making less contact within the zone as well as swinging more frequently at pitches out of the zone and making less contact on those pitches. When that aggressive swing does make contact, he can still run into one, but Dickerson looked like the 2016 guy when June became July and the quality of the plate appearances do not look good these days. He has been demoted from the leadoff spot in the lineup as Kevin Cash tries to do something to break Dickerson out of this long slump.
In sum, I have not given you any good news with these players simply because there is not much to find. If anything, you could buy low on a slumping Bradley, Dickerson or Zimmerman, but there is good reason to avoid the temptation of the other names because their recent struggles are a microcosm of their disappointing 2017 seasons.
