Collette Calls: Breaking Down Jason Heyward

Collette Calls: Breaking Down Jason Heyward

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

I had planned to discuss how I think Seattle's acquisition of Drew Smyly does nothing to change my bearish outlook on him and how I think he is headed down the Anibal Sanchez path of frustrating fantasy owners. After all, both are homer prone and both have had labrum issues that have not been surgically corrected. But then, I saw the following video on MLB Network and thought it was a better topic (if the Smyly/Sanchez talk intrigues you, listen to the next episode of the Sleeper & the Bust podcast).

Personally, I wish MLB Network did an entire hour of stuff like this on a daily basis because segments like these are simply fantastic. We know the Walk-Up Drill as something Happy Gilmore did to learn how to golf, but Sean Casey simply explains what Jason Heyward was doing wrong in recent years and what needed to be corrected.

Casey made three points about halfway through the video: Heyward was struggling on fastballs, he was seeing more fastballs and he was pulling a ton of balls in play. Let's look at the numbers for each of these points.

Struggling on Fastballs

The outcomes on fastballs for Heyward certainly were at a career low in 2016, coming off a season in which his batting average was a career high.

SEASONPAVGSLGISOBABIPAB/HROUTRATE
20101,582.305.511.206.3532961%
20111,092.267.453.186.28726
I had planned to discuss how I think Seattle's acquisition of Drew Smyly does nothing to change my bearish outlook on him and how I think he is headed down the Anibal Sanchez path of frustrating fantasy owners. After all, both are homer prone and both have had labrum issues that have not been surgically corrected. But then, I saw the following video on MLB Network and thought it was a better topic (if the Smyly/Sanchez talk intrigues you, listen to the next episode of the Sleeper & the Bust podcast).

Personally, I wish MLB Network did an entire hour of stuff like this on a daily basis because segments like these are simply fantastic. We know the Walk-Up Drill as something Happy Gilmore did to learn how to golf, but Sean Casey simply explains what Jason Heyward was doing wrong in recent years and what needed to be corrected.

Casey made three points about halfway through the video: Heyward was struggling on fastballs, he was seeing more fastballs and he was pulling a ton of balls in play. Let's look at the numbers for each of these points.

Struggling on Fastballs

The outcomes on fastballs for Heyward certainly were at a career low in 2016, coming off a season in which his batting average was a career high.

SEASONPAVGSLGISOBABIPAB/HROUTRATE
20101,582.305.511.206.3532961%
20111,092.267.453.186.2872671%
20121,590.279.492.212.2952169%
20131,147.284.440.156.3123568%
20141,676.272.368.096.2876369%
20151,527.325.477.153.3393964%
20161,560.247.358.110.2667473%

2014 and 2016 stand out as both were down seasons for Heyward in terms of fastball outcomes. 2014 was his first season back after taking a fastball off his face that broke his jaw and ended his season in late August. 2016 lacked such a traumatic event, but the seasons are not that far apart in terms of outcomes. Those were the only two seasons in which Heyward slugged below .440 off fastballs, but 2016 was even worse than 2014 in a few ways.

His batting average on balls in play was a career-low .266 because of the quality of contact on the fastballs and so many ended up in the ground to the pull side. He hit a home run off a fastball at nearly the same rate Halley's Comet makes an appearance in our night sky and converted fastballs into outs at a very high rate.

Heyward had a better batting average last year off fastballs, but it was not as if he was lofting the ball last year, either. In fact, he hit even more grounders off fastballs last season as he had that abnormal 2.4 groundball-to-flyball ratio when his historical rate was closer to 1.6.

The larger problem for Heyward was that he was not getting as much carry off fastballs. Note his HR/FB ratio and flyball distance by season off fastballs:

SEASONPHR/FBDISTANCE
20101,58211%284
20111,09211%257
20121,59011%288
20131,1478%257
20141,6764%259
20151,5279%281
20161,5604%263

In 2012, he hit a career-high 27 homers and got a lot of distance on his fastballs. 2015 saw him get more distance, but he hit too many balls into the ground. In 2016, he was not getting the distance due to poor exit velocity and, thus, the homers rarely showed up.

Seeing More Fastballs

If one were to look at just the fastball totals, then Heyward barely saw more fastballs in 2016 than he had in 2015 while seeing fewer than he had in 2014. That is why we have rate stats, and it is there where Casey's observation rings true because Heyward did indeed see the highest percentage of fastballs for his career in 2016:

SEASONPFB%
20101,58257%
20111,09255%
20121,59053%
20131,14756%
20141,67657%
20151,52756%
20161,56062%

Pulling a Ton of Balls

Heyward's batted pull percentage in 2016 was 41 percent, which while higher than 2015, was not as high as the 47 percent he had in 2013.

The number of pitches pulled to the right side does not look much different from one year to the next. What does stand out on the spray charts are the red dots to the pull side – popups. In 2015, he had a number of popups the other way, which will happen when you are both late and underneath a pitch. If you are popping up pitches to your pull side, the best you can hope for is the defense being indecisive in who will catch the ball.

Heyward led all lefty batters in popping up in 2016 with 48 and also led with 20 popups to his pull side. The pulled balls were nothing new, but pulled, poorly struck baseballs were a larger problem for Heyward.

The lower half does look at bit different from other years. The images below are from 2012 and 2013:

However, it is not as simple as just fixing a back foot and his lower half. As Mark DeRosa pointed out in August, there were multiple symptoms going on with Heyward's swing last year.

It might be better to look at a swing from 2016 against what Heyward is doing this offseason, and we have that courtesy of @macdime54 on Instagram. A few things to note:

Look where the bat and hands are at the 1-second mark; there is some serious bat wrap on the left and his front arm is practically arm-barred while neither shows up in the revamped swing setup.

At the 2-second mark, the point of impact, look at the momentum on the right and the shorter stride to the ball against the wider stride from the left and how he is falling back on his back leg.


The important thing to note is Heyward is making changes and is not moving forward with the messy swing he showed last year. I spoke with a scout at the Arizona Fall League about Heyward and he said it would be best for Heyward to get back to square one and back to the basics, much like in Rocky 3 where Apollo Creed rebuilds Rocky Balboa.

It looks like someone is doing just that with Jason Heyward, so perhaps he can get back to being a productive offensive threat and not a highly paid banjo hitter.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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