Collette Calls: Matt Moore or Marcus Stroman?

I'm also happy when football season ends because two things happen: the SiriusXM producers once again call to have me join the shows as a guest, which I've missed doing since the lines went quiet in late August. Also, I start to get more baseball inquiries in my Twitter feed such as this one from a few days that I want to take a deeper look at in this installment of Collette Calls:

@sporer@jasoncollette Serious inquiry going into '17. Matt Moore or Marcus Stroman? Why can't I stop thinking a MM big breakout is coming?

— Tim Bennett (@bumblebeetoona) December 30, 2016

Actually, the largest divergence comes in the DRA (Deserved Runs Average) column, which shows that Moore had some good breaks while Stroman should have done much better than he actually did. The "bad luck" does not show up as much in BABIP (.285 vs .308) as much as it does LOB% (75 vs. 69 percent). Stroman's groundball tendencies are going to lead to balls safely hit into play more often than a flyball pitcher simply because there is a slightly higher batting average on groundballs league-wide (.239) than on flyballs (.235).

Strangely enough, Stroman's batting average against from groundballs was better than the league average at .224, but diving into the splits there shows a better story. Stroman held the league to a .192 average on groundballs when the bases were empty and the infield defense could be aligned without worry of any baserunner(s). When any runners were on, that average jumped to .269 and .258 with runners in scoring position.

One of my main worries about Stroman coming into the season was how long he would last given that he worked fewer than 30 innings in 2015. He ended up surpassing 200 innings last year and actually got stronger as the season progressed. His strikeout rate jumped from 17 percent in the first half to 23 percent in the second half, he cut down on the free passes and did a better job of stranding runners (74 to 65 percent) as he closed out the season. He was 6-3 with a 5.23 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a 16 percent strikeout rate on Father's Day and from there went 3-7, but had a 3.59 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and a 22 percent strikeout rate. Win-loss record aside, the numbers he put up in the second half of the season are top-40 starting pitcher worthy, but the awfulness of his first 2.5 months hid the progress he made later in the season.

Moore also had his own struggles early in the season. By early June, Moore was 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, a 21 percent strikeout rate and had allowed 1.8 homers per nine innings. The strikeout rate was the only redeeming skill of a pitcher that otherwise belonged in the scrap head of standard mixed leagues at the time. The saving grace for Moore came in his second June start when he faced a swing-happy Astros lineup and struck out 10 batters while scattering two hits over seven innings. He followed that up by auditioning for his future employer in San Francisco with another quality start. He laid a stinker in Baltimore near the end of the month but then ran up quality starts in eight consecutive outings before the streak ended with a game against Pittsburgh in mid-August. Over his final 21 starts, Moore was 11-8 with 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while maintaining his 22 percent strikeout rate.

Moore has historically been a three-pitch pitcher, at least to righties. He has the fastball, the knuckle-curve and the changeup. He has used all three against righties while going with FB/KC against the lefties. Now, he has added a cutter to the mix, which is something that had practically disappeared from his repertoire in Tampa Bay.

He had one game right when he came back from Tommy John surgery where it showed up quite a bit, but then it essentially disappeared the rest of that season. In fact, he did not throw the pitch at all for Tampa Bay in 2016 and only began doing so a couple starts after joining the Giants. FanGraphs' Eno Sarris mentioned in late August that Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey suggested he started using the pitch. Moore can now attack righties with four pitches and lefties with three pitches, and the research suggests the deeper a pitcher's repertoire is, the better they do multiple trips through the batting order.

Both pitchers have their flaws, but given their skills and where they pitch, I am still sticking with Moore as my preferred pitcher out of this duo. Stroman likely will go ahead of Moore in drafts given the name recognition and Moore's track record of hurting fantasy owners in recent years, but Moore has the better chance of finishing the season in the top 40 for starting pitchers because of his strikeout potential, working in the National League and pitching many games in a friendlier ballpark.