Collette Calls: Hot Stove Update

My apologies for the little break from the column as I have been working on pieces for the 2017 Draft Kit (launching soon!). The most recent article in the column mentioned that the MLB Winter Meetings would likely see more trades than signings, and that was mostly the case. We have quite a bit of December transactions to dive into, so without further ado, let's look at faces that changed places:

Jaime Garcia to the Braves

Garcia, despite all of his injuries throughout his career, has been rather predictable in terms of skills. His strikeout rate is slightly above the league average for starting pitchers, he is stingy with walks, and he has an incredibly high ground-ball rate for a starter, which helps limit his home runs. I probably should have used help in the past tense, because despite a 57 percent ground-ball rate last season, he still surrendered 26 home runs in 172 innings (1.4 HR/9). Sure, home runs were up league wide last year, but a 1.4 HR/9 cannot be dressed up as acceptable. Many of those homers came in the second half of the season, so we could say he possibly wore down given the fact his high watermark for workload the previous four seasons was the 129.2 he pitched in 2015 over 20 starts.

Garcia's secondary pitches (slider, change) still grade well but his hard stuff (4, 2 FB, cutter) took a beating last season compared to 2015:

As you can see, it was a huge jump from one year to the next and his numbers were below average compared to all other starting pitchers last year. Garcia is at his best when he stays ahead of batters and forces them to expand their zones while chasing his secondary offerings or well-located fastballs down. He was behind in the count too much last year and threw more fastballs than he ever had, and he paid for it. He is an intriguing play in mid-NL rounds and very late mixed leagues, but the health issues still put a cap on any ceiling.

Edinson Volquez signs with the Marlins

He has a strong ground-ball rate and still has one of the better changeups in the league. If you can focus on that and ignore all of his other many flaws, then go ahead and roster him while chasing wins because that is all he offers at this point. Everything else is below average and harmful to your roster.

Derek Norris traded to the Nationals for Pedro Avila

The Nationals needed a Wilson Ramos replacement, so they went out and brought Norris back. Norris was not 100 percent last year and it showed in his results. When healthy, he is a good power source at catcher, and he even threw in nine steals last year. He is now under Dusty Baker, who does like to run so perhaps he can throw in the steals again. For a long deep dive into Norris, check out this work by Jason Hanselman.

Astros sign Carlos Beltran

The last article mentioned how righty-heavy the Astros' lineup was, so with Beltran joining Josh Reddick and Brian McCann, the lineup has some very experienced balance. This is the perfect place for Beltran to help keep his fantasy value rolling. Right now, he is projected to hit cleanup behind the young trio of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, with McCann behind him. That should provide a lot of RBI opportunities and hitting is somewhat easier to do when men are on base. Beltran should be the primary DH with some starts in the outfield against lefties during interleague games. He turns 40 shortly after the season begins, but he continues to age ever so gracefully at the plate.

Giants sign Mark Melancon

This was arguably the most predictable move of the offseason. The Giants let Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo walk, so they needed some experience at the back end as they clearly were not ready to entrust Hunter Strickland nor Derek Law with the closer role.

If you are to roster Melancon, you understand that he isn't a typical closer in that he doesn't come in trying to hit triple-digits on the radar gun. Despite his lack of velocity compared to his closing peers, it works for him; it gets the job done. His strikeout rate is above the league average for relievers and he does it with his other pitches because his cutter and curveball are both excellent pitches that enhance his fastball. Melancon has been one of my favorite mid-level closers to target each season, but 2017 should be a year when he is treated like a top-tier closer because he is one.

Blue Jays sign Steve Pearce

The Jays seem resolved to the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are gone. They first signed Kendrys Morales to fill one hole and have now added Pearce in hopes of filling the other. Pearce's heavy fly ball and pull approach should be a great fit for Rogers Centre and we know it already works well in other American League East parks. Pearce could end up with the majority of at-bats at first base in a platoon with Justin Smoak, and he can spot start at second, third or left field.

Pearce has had a reputation as a lefty killer throughout his career, and it is fair since he has a .366 wOBA against lefties versus a .321 wOBA against righties. That said, Pearce has worked hard to shed that pigeon-holed label in recent years. From 2014 to 2016, Pearce has been killing righties too, as he has a .354 wOBA against them with a .263/.343/.467 traditional slash line in nearly 700 plate appearances. The initial thought is Pearce could be a sneaky bargain if he could get 500 plate appearances in that park with the improvement against righties. The problem is that he has never even hit the 400-plate-appearance plateau in his career since he was such a late bloomer and due to injuries. What Pearce did in 2016 around multiple injuries was encouraging, but projecting that over a full season is setting yourself up for failure.

Brewers trade Tyler Thornburg to the Red Sox for Travis Shaw (and others)

Craig Kimbrel had the 15th-best K:BB ratio of all relievers last year; Thornburg had the 14th-best. The Red Sox are trying their own version of what the Yankees did last year in making the final six outs a swing-and-miss game with two power righty relievers. They still have Carson Smith coming back at some point and Joe Kelly's velocity looks better in the pen than it does in the rotation as well. Thornburg has made a successful conversion from the rotation to the pen and has improved his strikeout rate four consecutive seasons. Last year, he struck out 34 percent of the batters he faced while holding them to a .161 batting average. The trade hurts his fantasy value because Kimbrel is very reliable, so Thornburg will have to settle for ratios, strikeouts and vulture wins in tight games.

Shaw will fight with Hernan Perez for the third base job for Milwaukee and hit in the bottom half of the lineup. If he cannot get that job, he serves as an insurance policy should the Eric Thames experiment fail, or even left field if the perpetual Ryan Braun trade rumors ever materialize. Moving to Miller Park is a nice thing, as it had a 136 Park Factor for lefty homers last year compared to 77 for Fenway. That said, if he cannot crack the lineup, it's all for naught.

Chris Sale traded to Red Sox for Michael Kopech, Yoan Moncada, and others

Boston thought they bought their staff ace last year with David Price, but they have now traded for a certified G and bonafide stud in Sale. The ballparks in the American League East are a little more of a challenge than the ones in the Central, but Sale's game is practically flawless. The homers were up a bit last year, and many of those came late in the season when he gave up eight in September alone as he worked a career-high 226.2 innings. The Red Sox offense will look different in 2017, but it also helped deliver a Cy Young to Rick Porcello, giving him nearly seven runs of support per outing – something Sale has lacked throughout most of his career.

The White Sox received an appropriate haul for trading away their ace, but it is unlikely any will have the kind of 2017 impact people will hope for. Moncada is 21 and has never taken a swing in Triple-A. I'm selfishly hoping he is assigned to that level in 2017 given that the Triple-A White Sox play in Charlotte, but it isn't reality. Moncada has just over 200 plate appearances above A-ball and a little more seasoning cannot hurt. Kopech is not even 21 yet and has not thrown a pitch outside of A-ball, but his 100 mph velo is well known, as are his command problems. He will most likely not see the big league club until sometime in 2018.

White Sox sign Derek Holland

Going from Chris Sale to Derek Holland is much like trading in your Bentley for a Ford Escape. Pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the best there has ever been at what he does, but I have no idea how he can salvage Holland into a serviceable pitcher. Holland has not been able to stay on the mound since his 2013 career year and his numbers are below league average nearly across the board. Too many home runs, too few strikeouts and terrible ratios. Fly-ball pitchers are not a great fit for Chicago, so if owning James Shields scared you last year, run for the hills with Holland. Consider him the American League version of Edinson Volquez in terms of a roster killer.

Phillies sign Joaquin Benoit

Old man river scores another deal and it should make Jeanmar Gomez owners nervous. Gomez is the incumbent after saving 37 games last year but with risky skills. Benoit's numbers over the past three seasons dwarf what Gomez has done:

The other thing with Benoit is that he has been an amazing strand-man throughout his career. Since the 2010 season, his lowest LOB% (left on base rate) is 74.6 percent, and he has stranded at least 80 percent in each of the last five seasons. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher whose outstanding changeup keeps many hitters off balance, and fly balls have the worst chance of becoming base hits.

Benoit has had closer skills for some time, but he has only eclipsed 10 saves twice and 20 saves once. Back in his Tampa Bay days, it was said he could not be used on back-to-back days too often, but that didn't appear to be a problem in 2013. One should assume Philadelphia hopes to build up Benoit's value and then trade him by the break for something of longer-term value.

Yankees sign Matt Holliday

The Yankees stunted their youth movement by signing the soon-to-be 37-year-old Holliday to be their primary DH and backup in left field and at first base. He is slated to hit behind Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Gary Sanchez, which should provide ample RBI opportunities. He has not hit as many as 25 homers in four seasons and has only eclipsed that total one time in the past six years, and that is unlikely to change. The batting average should return if he can stay healthy and resume the hard contact that has been a staple of his career. This is a step down from Carlos Beltran at the plate, but one that you can feel safe investing $15 in for AL-only and $12 in mixed formats.

White Sox trade Adam Eaton to the Nationals for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning

Much like the other deal, a lot of the return for the White Sox will be realized later, but that shouldn't stop you from rostering all three new guys in dynasty leagues. The thought of Don Cooper working with Giolito is very enticing, as Giolito took a step back last year.

Eaton sees a huge upgrade to his fantasy futures as Mr. Consistent is now setting the table for Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper behind him. Eaton has been on base 36 percent of the time for his career and has had an OBP of .361 or .362 each of the past three seasons. Despite all of that, Eaton has never scored 100 runs in a season even though he barely missed a game in the past two years. With the better lineup behind him, he should eclipse that plateau and may even run more with Baker's foot on the pedal. 100+ runs, 20+ steals and a .300 average are all in play for Eaton.

Giants trade Chris Heston to the Mariners

Heston looked promising in NL-only leagues in 2015 with a high ground-ball rate, a good strikeout rate and 12 wins in 31 starts. He pitched just five innings last year and missed the rest of the season with a serious oblique injury. He has intrigue as a late pick in AL-only formats as the curveball can get strikeouts, so $1 invested could return $6-7.

Cubs trade Jorge Soler to the Royals for Wade Davis

I am not going to waste many words on Davis because you know what you are getting out of him. He is an absolute stud when fully healthy, but he did miss two stints last year with forearm issues, which gives me some pause in fully investing into him.

Soler struggled to find enough at-bats in a very deep Cubs roster but should not have the same issue with Kansas City. That said, extra playing time may not suit him too well either. He strikes out quite a bit, which will limit his batting average, he hasn't shown more than average power despite the reports as he came up through the system and has never really run. He is also not going to force playing time with his glove. The upside is 20 homers and a .260 average. which is not very special for an outfielder.

Red Sox sign Mitch Moreland

He will not be asked to fill the huge hole left by David Ortiz as the club is moving Hanley Ramirez to DH and letting Moreland play first base against righties. Moreland is a better-than-average defender at first base and certainly an upgrade from Ramirez at first. 2016 was the first season Moreland looked decent against lefties, but it came in just 100 plate appearances. He will hit down in the lineup with Boston, but there will be more RBI opportunities down there than there are in other lineups.

Cardinals sign Dexter Fowler

Fowler should have scored a ton of runs last year, but he only played in 125 games, which wasted his .393 on-base percentage. He will take those excellent on-base skills to St. Louis, where the lineup behind him is not as robust as it was in Chicago. In fact, one could argue that St. Louis is the worst run environment that Fowler has been in, given his previous homes in Denver, Houston and Chicago. The health issue cannot be ignored because Fowler has eclipsed 125 games played just twice in the past six seasons. If he stays healthy, he should score 90+ runs for just the second time in his career despite a career .366 OBP.

Diamondbacks sign Fernando Rodney

Rodney has had below-average closer skills four years running, yet he has saved at least 25 games in three of those four seasons. His changeup and high heat still ensures he gets strikeouts, but he walks too many guys and is frequently flirting with disaster. If you don't want to spend on saves, Rodney is your guy. You can used those cost savings to invest in Rolaids or just turn the TV off when he steps on the mound.

Danny Espinosa traded to the Angels
He is a terrible defender, but the Angels need bats so Espinosa will play every day and bring his compiling skills to the plate. He has some power, but the speed is gone and he habitually posts a poor average due to his high strikeout totals. Be thankful for every point of batting average over .240 because he has never hit as high as .250 in any season. The 20 homers will also be tough to repeat. Do not pay 2016 prices for this unattractive skill set.

Rays sign Wilson Ramos
Ramos says he can be back on the field by May. The Rays say June, so given their track record, it will be July. The good news is that Ramos does not have to catch in order to return since he can DH until he's ready to squat behind the dish on a regular basis. Once he is in the lineup, he will likely hit 5th since Kevin Cash likes to break up righties with Corey Dickerson between them. His 2014 numbers are very repeatable with some 2013 upside.

Rockies sign Ian Desmond

Awesome, a guy with a 2:1 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio is headed to the thin air of Coors Field! The bigger excitement should be around Desmond's batting average, as the extra space in Coors should help him hit for a higher average as he did last year for Texas with a career-high .350 BABIP. He can repeat his 2016 numbers, but if people starting throwing out picks or bids as if he will hit 30 homers, step away from the table. He has outfield eligibility on draft day and it appears as if he will get some first base eligibility in-season despite the fact he has never played the position at the major league level.

Yankees sign Aroldis Chapman

He looked somewhat human in the World Series and later admitted he did not like how Joe Maddon utilized him. Poor baby. He deflates Dellin Betances's value and remains a top flight investment at closer even with Betances looming behind him. Joe Girardi fooled us all once with who he gave the job to, but there are 86 million reasons why he will not do that again.

Brewers sign Tommy Milone

I swear this guy is Jeff Locke's long lost twin brother. He is in a new place, but it is not a good fit because he gives up too many home runs. Moving from Target Field to Miller Park does nothing to make him any more attractive than reserve round speculation for roster filler and streaming for matchups.

Orioles sign Welington Castillo

Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo have shown us in recent years what right-handed pull power hitters can do in Camden Yards. Enter, Beef! There is 20-homer upside but the strikeouts are going to limit his batting average. The other issue to worry about is Castillo is not a good pitch framer, so the Orioles' pitchers may have some issues with strikes on the fringes of the zone when he is behind the plate. Set your expectations at 16 homers and a .250 average and be thankful for anything above that.

Marlins sign Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa

The Marlins rotation is u-g-l-y and it ain't got no alibi. The free-agent market for starting pitchers is even worse, so the Marlins had two choices: trade for a pitcher or deepen their bullpen. They have decided to go the latter by adding the two righty free agents which gives them a very right-handed bullpen with decent skills. Let's focus on the free agents and the two main incumbents in A.J. Ramos and Kyle Barraclough: