Collette Calls: A Look at Middle Infield Power

There are many fantasy axioms out there that many adhere to on draft day. Don't reach for pitchers. Draft power/speed combos early. Get 60 homers and 60 steals before you get out of the first three round. Get your power at the corners because it is sparse up the middle.

Or is it?

It is no surprise by now that the balls are flying out of the yard. I wrote about it back in May and others have taken deeper dives into physics and testing of the baseball to see why balls are flying out of the yard at a pre-Mitchell report pace this season. What is surprising is that many of those home runs are coming from middle infielders.

To date, there are 21 middle infielders that have hit at least 15 home runs in 2016.

•Jose Altuve
•Robinson Cano
•Starlin Castro
•Carlos Correa
•Zack Cozart
•Brian Dozier
•Danny Espinosa
•Logan Forsythe
•Didi Gregorius
•Ian Kinsler
•Jason Kipnis
•Brad Miller
•Daniel Murphy
• Rougned Odor
•Addison Russell
•Jonathan Schoop
•Corey Seager
•Marcus Semien
•Trevor Story
•Troy Tulowitzki
•Neil Walker

That total of 21 is a record since the 30-team league last had a shortened season (1996), besting the previous best of 20 in 2007. This is what that year-to-year chart looks like with the current data:

After trending down for a number of seasons, power from the middle infield is on a rapid climb. From 2014 to 2015, that total doubled from nine to 18. If we consider that there are an additional 14 players who had 10 to 14 home runs on Aug. 21, there is a decent chance that the total will again double from 2015 to 2016.

Certainly, the addition of Trevor Story and Corey Seager to the league in 2016 helps, but only nine of the 21 names on the 2016 list were on the 2015 list. Let's take a high-level look at some of the new names on the 2016 list and how they got there.

Starlin Castro: Castro has exactly 15 homers this season, only two of which can be attributed to the cozy right-field dimensions of Yankee Stadium. Castro does has a career-high 14 percent HR/FB ratio, but the exit velocity data doesn't show any noticeable jump. The one area where we see a little something is he is making less contact this season, as his 78.0 Contact% is a career low and his 11.4 percent swinging strike rate is a career high. We can probably chalk this one up to regular playing time, the friendly parks of the AL East and the mostly bad pitching within that division. He is still just 26 and there should be a little more in the tank with him.

Zack Cozart: Cozart returns to this list as he hit 15 homers in 2012, but his power dropped and then he was injured for a good chunk of 2015. Like Castro, Cozart's overall numbers are rather stable and the increase this year is mostly due to him just being on the field. Last season, he showed he could do this with a .201 ISO and a 12 percent HR/FB rate that led to nine homers in 214 plate appearances. He has 15 in 450 plate appearances now, but at 31, it is unlikely there is more in the tank, especially if he moves away from the GABP.

Danny Espinosa: He too has been on this list before, but it was in 2011 and 2012. Since then, there has been fewer homers, fewer walks and a lot of strikeouts. This season, he is on pace to set a career high in homers as he tries to once again build his free-agent value on the market. His flyball rate is more than 40 percent for the first time since his rookie season of 2010, and he is actually showing more selectivity at the plate this season. Unfortunately, that is not leading to much more contact as he still comes up empty well above the league average with his swings. He could just as easily stay on this list in 2017 as he could disappear from it with this high-risk skillset.

Didi Gregorius: He has 17 homers, nine of which have come at Yankee Stadium, and four of those has been classified as "just enough" shots on the ESPN Home Run Tracker. This is one we could see coming a bit as he was one year removed from filling in Jeet's shoes and turned 26 just before the season – a time when players enter their power prime years. He has not hit more flyballs – in fact, his rate is down – but the ones he is elevating are carrying as his HR/FB rate is a career-high 13 percent. As long as he stays in that park, he has a good chance of repeating 15 homers and possibly challenging 20 as he continues to fill out physically.

Ian Kinsler: Kinsler took a short hiatus from this list in 2015, but has come back with a vengeance this year as he has already doubled his 2015 home-run rate in nearly 140 fewer plate appearances. Perhaps recognizing the ball is flying this year, Kinsler has returned to the flyball approach of his prime years in Texas, and his flyball rate as well as his HR/FB% are the highest they have been since 2011.

Jason Kipnis: Given his talents, it is rather surprising this is just his second time on this list, but Kipnis was in the single digits each of the last two seasons before hitting his 20th homer Aug. 14. Kipnis is getting more loft on the baseball as he has a career-high 37 percent flyball rate and a 15 percent HR/FB rate while also setting a high-water mark for his hard-contact rate. Hitting flyballs harder and farther = home runs. As long as his hands stay healthy, he should be on this list for the foreseeable future.

Brad Miller: Arguably the biggest (AL) shock on this list. I wrote him up earlier this week on my Rays blog and FanGraphs did the same two days later. He is eschewing contact for power, but since he's been moved to a corner position, it's a good thing for him. Enjoy his middle infield eligibility in 2017 as it may not have it in 2018.

Daniel Murphy: And now we have the biggest NL shock on the list. Murphy has turned into a slugger out of nowhere with career highs in hard-contact, flyball and HR/FB rates. Normally, players do not do this in the first year of a new deal, but he stayed within his division and gets to exact revenge upon the team that would not keep his services. Many figured the NL MVP would come from Washington, but it was another lefty slugger they had in mind. Murphy's transformation in 2016 has been simply astounding.

Addison Russell: Russell had always had projected power. He hit 13 in his first season in the majors at age 21 when his age peers were in Single-A around the country. At age 22, he has 15 homers and a decent shot at 20 by season's end. He has increased his walk rate and reduced his strikeout rate in his sophomore season while driving the ball further. Again, he is one of the youngest players in the league and is showing tremendous growth this season while scoffing at the sophomore-slump theory.

It is tough to imagine the list to continue growing at the exponential rate it has done in recent seasons because as new names appear, old names drop off. As we look for new names that may make this list in 2017, it is tough to speculate non-rookies, but Tim Anderson and Devon Travis come to mind and Ryan Schimpf is only a homer away already in his late-career power breakout season.