Collette Calls: Orioles' Softball Offense

Collette Calls: Orioles' Softball Offense

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

Greetings from 36,000 feet above the planet. In the past 36 hours, I've driven 500 miles (but not 500 more), flown from Charlotte to Minneapolis and, as I write, am on my way to Denver where I'll be the next five days for a work conference. Yes, I'll get to squeeze in at least one Rockies game while I am there, including the dream matchup of Shelby Miller and his 6.36 ERA against Jorge De La Rosa and his 7.17 ERA. Don't worry; I can sense your jealousy via TCP/IP.

This week's column will be a potpourri of sorts as I look into a few things that have gotten my attention the last week. I'll start by giving you deep NL-Only leaguers a name to pick up – Tom Szapucki. The 2015 fifth-round draft pick of the Mets made his 2016 debut Thursday night in the season opener for the Kingsport Mets in Tennessee. I just happened to be in the area, so I picked up a seat behind home plate ($7 – love the low minors) for the game to check it out. In a word: wow. Szapucki went six innings, struck out 13, walked none and allowed an infield single and a bunt. That was it. He overpowered the Elizabethton Twins lineup all night, working 91-95 mph, and his curve was a tight 11-5 with a lot of drop that the Twins' batters either froze on or just flailed over the top of.

Szapucki was very efficient,

Greetings from 36,000 feet above the planet. In the past 36 hours, I've driven 500 miles (but not 500 more), flown from Charlotte to Minneapolis and, as I write, am on my way to Denver where I'll be the next five days for a work conference. Yes, I'll get to squeeze in at least one Rockies game while I am there, including the dream matchup of Shelby Miller and his 6.36 ERA against Jorge De La Rosa and his 7.17 ERA. Don't worry; I can sense your jealousy via TCP/IP.

This week's column will be a potpourri of sorts as I look into a few things that have gotten my attention the last week. I'll start by giving you deep NL-Only leaguers a name to pick up – Tom Szapucki. The 2015 fifth-round draft pick of the Mets made his 2016 debut Thursday night in the season opener for the Kingsport Mets in Tennessee. I just happened to be in the area, so I picked up a seat behind home plate ($7 – love the low minors) for the game to check it out. In a word: wow. Szapucki went six innings, struck out 13, walked none and allowed an infield single and a bunt. That was it. He overpowered the Elizabethton Twins lineup all night, working 91-95 mph, and his curve was a tight 11-5 with a lot of drop that the Twins' batters either froze on or just flailed over the top of.

Szapucki was very efficient, and I don't believe I saw a three-ball count the entire evening. He's obviously a long way off, but if you play in a deep NL league, keep an eye on his outings. That effort was easily one of the more dominating efforts I've seen in a minor league game in quite some time.

Stolen Bases

While offense is up in 2016, stolen bases are once again trending the way of Zubaz pants, flip phones and CDs. In the last calendar year, just 23 players have swiped at least 20 bases with Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton tied at the top. The fact Gordon leads the list despite the suspension is rather amusing, if not depressing, for the stolen base statistic. Gordon and Hamilton are joined by Jarrod Dyson, Starling Marte, Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon as the only players with as many as 30 steals in the last calendar year. I honestly still do not know what to do with this category because outside of the top handful of players, it's a volatile category down ballot, and when Jason Heyward has more steals than Jacoby Ellsbury over the last year you almost want to throw your hands up and walk away from the category.

Lately, Rajai Davis is running like crazy as he has 10 steals in the last month and is taking full advantage of being on base at a .372 clip during that run. He does not even play every day, but at this rate, you should start him in all formats. If you're an NL only owner, Jonathan Villar continues to be your guy as he too has 10 steals in the last month in addition to 18 runs scored, 14 runs driven in and five home runs. In the year of the young shortstop, Villar is tied with more notable Corey Seager and Trevor Story in year-to-date fantasy value.

Orioles Offense

How good is the Orioles offense? Adam Jones and his complete lack of strike-zone discipline is batting leadoff these days. As Jones continues to do his Vladimir Guerrero impression at the plate, he is getting on base at a .307 clip, subpar for a leadoff hitter. Despite that, in the last 30 days entering Saturday, Jones is tied for the lead in runs scored at 24. Just imagine if Jones could bump his OBP up a bit. That offense is still performing (and mostly pitching) like a softball team and as long as that continues, stock up on the top two-thirds of that lineup for run production.

NAMEPAROBP
Josh Donaldson11924.479
Wil Myers12124.413
Mookie Betts12724.362
George Springer13124.351
Charlie Blackmon13024.372
Adam Jones12824.307

Home Runs

Over the last 30 days, five players have hit at least 10 homers. Evan Longoria and Edwin Encarnacion are not surprising names on that list and neither is Adam Jones. Adam Duvall's story lately is well documented, so his really isn't either, but how about the guy who is hitting .327/.413/.692 the last 30 days with 10 homers, 30 RBI and 24 runs scored? Yeah, how about Wil Myers? Apparently San Diego was able to tap into whatever the Rays could not (hint – health), and Myers is finally showing the talent that precluded his ascension to the major leagues. Myers came at a discount on draft day because of the previous year's troubles and is flourishing out west. Those are the types of acquisitions that win fantasy championships, and Myers serves as yet another reminder not to write off talent when it doesn't do what you expect it to on your timetable. I freely admit I am as guilty of this as anyone as I had Myers and Melvin Upton Jr. on my avoid list this year for their past transgressions. For more on his rebound, please check out Corrine Landrey's piece at FanGraphs.

Archie Bradley

Speaking of not quitting on talent, how about Archie Bradley? It feels like that name has been around forever, but over the last month he is showing signs of putting it all together. In that time, he's 2-3 with a 3.53 ERA but has struck out 43 in 35.2 innings and has allowed 25 hits. The BB/9 (4.7) and HR/9 (1.4) this year is going to scare most away and it should in mixed leagues, but NL leagues should take note. He limited the mighty Cubs to one run over six innings and struck out 10 but then gave up five homers in just over 10 innings in back-to-back losses against the Dodgers and Rays. He has rebounded lately and took advantage of a weak Phillies lineup but then repeated the success at Colorado (the day before I got here), allowing one run over five inning and striking out five. The 9.6 K/9 his the last 6 starts should get your attention, and lean on the fact nearly all of his homers came in a two-start span.

Chris Tillmam

Getting back to home runs, Chris Tillman is back at it again. Over his first 8 starts, he gave up just one home run and had a 9.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.58 ERA and 2.67 FIP. All of that looked great, but the home-run rate was screaming for regression against his career rates and it has done exactly that. Over his most recent eight outings, he has allowed 12 homers, but I think this is an excellent buying opportunity for Tillman.

SPLITTBFHRERAWHIPK/9BB/9
First 818112.581.179.33.6
Last 8204124.381.267.52.7

If that 2.2 HR/9 rate normalizes, and it will, Tillman's right back where he was. If you own him, don't panic. If the Tillman owner in your league is worried because their 10-game winner is suddenly giving up a ton of homers, see what you can offer to get him. The run support is so strong for him, and that's only going to get better as Baltimore tweaks its lineup during July on the trade market.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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