This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are from OddsShark.com and are pulled the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, May 18.
Minnesota (Ricky Nolasco) at Detroit (Justin Verlander), 1:10 pm ET: +155/-165
This is a tricky one. The over/under is a strong 9.0, the public is 81 percent behind Detroit on moneyline bets and Nolasco could be undervalued (4.87 ERA vs. 3.77 SIERA), but he's also a pitcher who historically puts up worse numbers than his advanced stats suggest he should so that gap is less actionable. Meanwhile, Verlander has a positive SIERA gap too (4.71 ERA vs. 3.86 SIERA) and the Tigers have been much better than the Twins against right-handed pitching this year, racking up a .332 wOBA compared to Minnesota's .308. Take the advanced stats out of the picture, though, and this is
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are from OddsShark.com and are pulled the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, May 18.
Minnesota (Ricky Nolasco) at Detroit (Justin Verlander), 1:10 pm ET: +155/-165
This is a tricky one. The over/under is a strong 9.0, the public is 81 percent behind Detroit on moneyline bets and Nolasco could be undervalued (4.87 ERA vs. 3.77 SIERA), but he's also a pitcher who historically puts up worse numbers than his advanced stats suggest he should so that gap is less actionable. Meanwhile, Verlander has a positive SIERA gap too (4.71 ERA vs. 3.86 SIERA) and the Tigers have been much better than the Twins against right-handed pitching this year, racking up a .332 wOBA compared to Minnesota's .308. Take the advanced stats out of the picture, though, and this is just about exactly what to look for in an underdog play.
Recommendation: Back the Twins (one unit) at +155.
Texas (Martin Perez) at Oakland (Rich Hill), 3:35 pm ET: +135/-145
The odds are solid, but that's about the only thing recommending this one. Perez's 3.23 ERA hides a brutal 5.29 SIERA, the o/u of 8.0 is short of where it needs to be and the public is nearly evenly split, backing the A's on just 53 percent of ML wagers. Neither team is good against left-handed pitching, either, with the Rangers posting a .316 wOBA while the A's manage just a .299 wOBA. In fact, if any play looks good here, it's the under.
Recommendation: None, at least not on the moneyline.
Atlanta (Julio Teheran) at Pittsburgh (Francisco Liriano), 7:05 pm ET: +170/-180
Again, the odds are intriguing but the allure quickly fades with a closer look. While the public is all about fading the woeful Braves (80 percent of ML bets on the Bucs) the o/u is just 7.0, making this one a non-starter as an underdog play. Teheran might also be overvalued (3.17 ERA vs. 4.12 SIERA) while Liriano is probably undervalued (4.99 ERA vs. 4.15 SIERA), and Atlanta can't hit lefties to save their lives (.243 wOBA, dead last by 16 points and 33 points behind the 28th-place Phillies.) Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is fifth in wOBA against righties at .341.
Recommendation: None. There may be a time to jump on the Braves underdog bandwagon, but this isn't it.
Tampa Bay (Jake Odorizzi) at Toronto (R.A. Dickey), 7:07 pm ET: +130/-140
Hmm. The Rays have won the first two games in this series by a combined score of 25-4, but the public doesn't seem to think the Jays are due, backing Toronto with just 53 percent of ML bets. The o/u is right at 8.5, but neither pitcher's SIERA varies much from their ERA and both offenses are about equal against right-handed pitching. The odds have also narrowed since last night, sitting in the +115/-125 range at most books now.
Recommendation: None, although if you're looking for a contrarian play, consider betting the under.
Cleveland (Mike Clevinger) at Cincinnati (Brandon Finnegan), 7:10 pm ET: -140/+130
Well now. A home underdog, facing a pitcher making his major league debut? Color me interested. The o/u is short of ideal at 8.0, though, and Finnegan's 4.40 ERA vs. 5.18 SIERA doesn't exactly inspire confidence. The Indians do struggle against lefties (26th in the league with a .288 wOBA), but the Reds are just as bad against righties (.290 wOBA, 27th) -- even ones they've never seen before.
Recommendation: None, as much as it breaks my heart to let a home 'dog go by the wayside.
Chicago Cubs (John Lackey) at Milwaukee (Jimmy Nelson), 8:10 pm ET: -160/+150
Finally! The o/u started at 8.5, although action on the under has crept it down to 8.0 at some books, and the public is backing the Cubs with 83 percent of ML bets, so this is nearly the ideal home 'dog spot. Nelson might be a bit overvalued (3.51 ERA vs. 4.33 SIERA) but Chicago's advantage on offense is probably overvalued in the public's mind as well (.343 wOBA against righties, fourth in the league, but Milwaukee is 10th at .328).
Recommendation: Back the Brewers (one unit) at +150, but you should be able to find better.
Colorado (Chris Rusin) at St. Louis (Adam Wainwright), 8:15 pm ET: +170/-180
This is interesting. The o/u opened at 7.5 but has been skyrocketing and is already at 8.5 at many books. Wainwright's terrible performance to date likely has something to do with that, and while his 6.80 ERA is inflated, he's still been bad (4.93 SIERA). That hasn't dissuaded the public from backing the Cardinals on 72 percent of ML bets, though. Rusin, on the other hand, has a solid 3.47 SIERA masked by a 4.85 ERA. The Rockies also hit righties (.333 wOBA) much better than the Cards hit lefties (.310 wOBA)
Recommendation: Back the Rockies (one unit) at +170.
YTD performance: 7-5-1, plus 4.92 units, ROI plus 37.86%
