MLB Picks: Wednesday Betting Picks

When it comes to betting MLB games, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, which is what this column will focus on.

The moneylines listed will be from the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).

Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, April 6.

Toronto (J.A. Happ) at Tampa Bay (Matt Moore), 1:10 pm ET: +110 / -120

This early in the season, with no 2016 stats to go on, perception is king and that's very clear in this line. Moore is coming off a tremendous spring and has a lot of hype behind him, while Happ's previous stint with the Jays has many nervous about whether he'll be able to maintain the improvement he showed last year with the Pirates. This is also still predominantly the same Toronto lineup that posted a league-leading .817 OPS (.278/.354/.463) and 23.9 AB/HR rate against left-handed pitchers in 2015, although Tropicana Field can help suppress the Jays' right-handed slugging. The Rays, though, were no slouches against lefties themselves last year, finishing third with a.759 OPS versus southpaws.

Recommendation: None, but with slightly better odds, the Jays would be worth backing.

San Francisco (Jeff Samardzija) at Milwaukee (Taylor Jungmann), 1:40 pm ET: -130 / +120

Samardzija had one of the biggest disparities between his ERA (4.96) and SIERA (4.18) last year, which makes him a strong candidate for a 2016 rebound. However, one of the issues that plagued him was a spike in his FB% (39.8%, highest since 2011), which won't help him much in Miller Park. Meanwhile, Jungmann's declining returns as a rookie suggest that league figured him out fairly quickly last year, so he may not be in the best position to take advantage of any struggles by Samardzija. This line should see some serious movement before the first pitch, though. As I write this, moneyline betting is running at a crazy 90 percent on the Giants.

Recommendation: None, although with an o/u line of 8.5, the Brewers should become a contrarian play as a home underdog if and when the odds shift further in their direction.

Colorado (Tyler Chatwood) at Arizona (Patrick Corbin), 3:40 pm ET: +175 / -185

The fact that the Rockies smacked around a flu-ridden Zack Greinke on Monday doesn't seem to have changed anyone's perceptions of these two teams yet, which could present an opportunity. The D-backs' lineup is less fearsome without A.J. Pollock, though, and Colorado has the infield defense to take advantage of Chatwood's ground-ball tendencies if he returns to his 2013-2014 form. In contrast, Arizona's offseason spending spree -- and the possibility of a breakout for Corbin in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery -- may have produced more hype than they can meet.

Recommendation: Back the Rockies (one unit) at +175

Detroit (Anibal Sanchez) at Miami (Jose Fernandez), 4:55 pm ET: +140 / -150

Sanchez is another pitcher with a big gap between his 2015 ERA (4.99) and SIERA (4.03), but this line is due more to Fernandez's status as one of the game's young aces than it is an underestimation of Sanchez's abilities. The wild card is the change in the fences at Marlins Park. Center field is about 20 feet closer to home plate this year, and the height of the outfield walls was also reduced to allow for some highlight-reel thievery. If the changes are going to hurt either of these pitchers, though, it's more likely to be Sanchez (39.1 FB% last year) than Fernandez (31.1). Those changes in dimension could create profit opportunities during the year, but this doesn't seem like the best spot to test the theory.

Recommendation: None, although the Marlins might be interesting at a better price.

Washington (Stephen Strasburg) at Atlanta (Bud Norris), 7:10 pm ET: -195 / +184

The day's biggest line might seem to be only for hardcore contrarians, but look again. Strasburg's 3.46 ERA disguised a stellar 2.76 SIERA that's a better reflection of his talent when healthy, but Norris had an even bigger discrepancy, with his awful 6.72 ERA in 2015 revealing a more palatable 4.17 SIERA underneath. That's still a decided advantage for the Nats, but it's not as extreme as it might seem. With an o/u of just 7.5, though, the game doesn't fit the model of the significant home underdog in a more volatile, high-scoring game.

Recommendation: None, despite the temptation to chase the big dog.

Chicago White Sox (Carlos Rodon) at Oakland (Sonny Gray), 10:05 pm ET: +130 / -140

Now this is a line that makes no sense to me. Gray got bumped from Monday's start due to food poisoning, so he may not be 100 percent, and he's a strong candidate to be overvalued this season based on a 2015 ERA (2.73) that significantly outpaced his SIERA (3.80). The A's also struggled against left-handers last year, posting a below-average .705 OPS (.250/.309/.396), although they made some offseason moves to address the issue, including bringing in Khris Davis. If the improvement Rodon showed in his control in the second half carries forward into 2016, he's also capable of taking a big step forward as a sophomore.

Recommendation: Back the White Sox (one unit) at +130