Collette Calls: AL Predictions

Baltimore Orioles

No starter on this staff earns at least $10 by season's end in AL-Only Leagues. This Orioles team is built like a softball team. The lineup is loaded with power and if Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim can set the table, Chris Davis could have a big year. That said, this lineup is also filled with strikeouts up and down the lineup which makes it tough to manufacture runs. Only Machado is projected to steal as many as 10 bases this season and it is the offense that has to max out because the starting staff is as awful as the bullpen is good. Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman, and the rest are mostly question marks with Gausman having the only upside on the staff. The concern here is the starters end up being so bad that the bullpen ends up being overworked by season's end.

Boston Red Sox

Travis Shaw earns at least $15 in AL-Only Leagues. Shaw has no clear shot at playing time on paper, but it doesn't take too much of an imagination to find playing time for him. Shaw can play either corner and neither Pablo Sandoval nor Hanley Ramirez are locks for 500 plate appearances given their track records or physical conditions. In fact, Sandoval is already unlikely to start the season so Shaw can pick up some time at third and perhaps Wally Pipp the poorly-conditioned Sandoval. Shaw's track record of hitting in the minor leagues has been inconsistent, but he takes walks and gets on base.

Chicago White Sox

Jose Quintana wins 15 games. For most starters, 15 wins would not be a big deal until you consider that Quintana has never, ever, won more than nine games in a single season. Despite making every start each of the past three seasons and throwing 200 innings in each of them, Quintana has won exactly nine games three seasons in a row. He pitches well, but something in the bullpen falls apart or the offense doesn't get him enough help. The pen is better this year as is the offense and if Quintana can't win double-digits this year, it's never going to happen for him in Chicago.

Cleveland Indians

Michael Brantley doesn't earn $18 in AL-Only Leagues. Perhaps this is my own bias from having two major shoulder surgeries, but they're not easy to come back from. I can't help but recall how Melvin Upton struggled to hit with power in 2009 after his own shoulder surgery on his front shoulder during the 2008 offseason. Brantley is still a great baseball player but I see him being drafted almost as if nothing major happened to him in the offseason (went $22 in AL Tout). Over the past three seasons, Brantley has earned $18, $40, and $26 in AL-Only formats.

Detroit Tigers

Shane Greene earns at least $5 in AL-Only Leagues. "Way to go out on a limb there, Collette." Yeah, I hear you, but remember – he destroyed fantasy owners in 2015. Only Jerome Williams did more damage to fantasy rosters than Greene did. Greene's 2015 stuff was as bad as his 2014 stuff was good because of a blood clotting issue. There were times in 2015 where he literally could not feel the baseball in his hand because he had numbness in his index and middle fingers – fingers that are kind of important when throwing a baseball. Compare his Plate Discipline numbers (via Fangraphs) over the past two seasons:

Houston Astros

Tyler White leads all Astros in production at first base. Go back and look at my AL Tout review to read my thoughts on this kid but I could not be happier I was able to land this guy for $2 at the end of the draft. All White has done in his career is hit like a softball player, and since he looks like one, it's fitting. Jonathan Singleton continues to show little at the position and A.J. Reed could at least use a little more time against advanced pitching in Triple-A before taking over first base for good. White has that time in Triple-A that Reed has not yet seen, and White allows the Astros to give Reed that time and also stall his service clock a bit. If White continues to hit as he has done throughout his collegiate and professional career, he'll keep the job long enough to allow Reed enough time to properly bake and rake in Triple-A.

Los Angeles Angels

Nick Tropeano is the third most valuable starting pitcher on this staff. The other call is that Mike Trout earns at least twice what any other Angels batter earns in 2016. Tropeano looked good in a small sample size for the Angels in 2016 and now has the opportunity to flourish in what is a bunch of question marks behind staff anchor Garrett Richards and the boring Hector Santiago. Tropeano regularly posted high strikeout rates in the minors while not walking many and even in the small sample size last year, he flashed three above-average pitches. He's available for next to nothing in drafts and I picked him up in the second round of the reserves in AL Tout.

Kansas City Royals

Lorenzo Cain finishes in the top five for AL MVP. He won't win it because I don't think the Royals do well enough this year and his numbers won't be THAT good to overcome that narrative, but he's going to be damn good in 2016. I feel he has an outside chance at 20 homers, 30 steals, 90-plus runs, and a .300 average and I put my money where my mouth is dropping $27 on him at AL Tout. He's a late bloomer due to being blocked in the minors, but he's flourishing now and 2016 is going to be an even bigger year for Cain than 2015 was. If you were watching closely in the postseason, you got the heads-up on what is in store.

Minnesota Twins

Trevor May leads the Twins in saves. If you go back to my February piece on AL bullpens, you see how May sticks out like a sore thumb in this pen for the best skills. Glen Perkins isn't a lock, and the market seems to be chasing Kevin Jepsen as the backup, but skills win out in these situations and May had the best skills in 2015 of all the current Twins relievers. He's going for $2 or less in AL leagues and even at that price, he's going to turn a nice profit. If the saves come his way, the profit will be YUUUUUUUGE.

New York Yankees

Aaron Hicks is the second-highest dollar earner in the Yankee outfield. Considering he is currently fourth on their depth chart, this prediction will need some help. Luckily, the Yankee outfielders are not terribly durable and the roster has a few aged players that could also break down. Hicks will end up with double-digit homers and steals and won't need 500 plate appearances to do that.

Oakland Athletics

Marcus Semien is the second most-valuable shortstop in the American League. He will be a distant second place to Carlos Correa, but second place nonetheless. Semien batted .283/.352/.478 over the final two months of the season once he got his defense out of his head and left it in the field while he went to the plate. He hit for average and pop throughout his minor league career and the pop showed up in his first full season in the majors. Next comes the average; .275 and a 20/15 season is possible.

Seattle Mariners

Taijuan Walker is the second-most valuable starter on the staff. I've spent the better part of three years calling this guy Edwin Jackson 2.0 but had a change of heart late last year and have been talking about a 2016 breakout for this guy all winter. He's adding new pitches and the fastball command looked better as the season went on. Hisashi Iwakuma is an injury risk while Wade Miley lacks upside and Nate Karns lacks the stamina to go deep into games. Walker has long been discussed as a No. 2 starter and 2016 is the year he finally fits the role.

Tampa Bay Rays

Danny Farquhar leads the team in saves. Hear me out. Last year, when Jake McGee went down in spring training, the job went to Brad Boxberger and he kept it even when McGee returned from injury despite the fact Boxberger struggled throughout the season. Now Boxberger is out and the Rays are left with multiple options, most notably Farquhar and Alex Colome. Colome was doing setup work late in 2015 and looked much better in that role than he did as a starter. That said, one of the stated goals of the Rays in 2016 is to have the relievers work multiple innings. Last year, there was a lot of one-and-done outings by the pen and Boxberger ended up working more than an inning a number of times and he blamed some of his struggles on that. Farquhar hasn't been the same guy he was in 2013, but now he at least gets to drink from the Jim Hickey knowledge tap and Hick is one of the best in the business in re-aligning formerly effective pitchers.

Texas Rangers

Robinson Chirinos is the third most productive catcher in the American League. Once you get past Russell Martin and Brian McCann in the AL catcher pool, it isn't very pretty. People will overpay for Salvador Perez and Matt Wieters, but Chirinos is sitting there at a decent price. He went for $9 in AL Tout, which was $2 more than I had budgeted to acquire him. He has hit double-digit homers in each of the past two seasons but has yet to have more than 330 plate appearances in a season. That should change this year and his heavy flyball approach may hold down his average, but could also allow him to take a crack at hitting 20 homers in 2016.

Toronto Blue Jays

J.A. Happ finishes as the second most valuable starting pitcher on the staff. The last time Happ was with the Jays, it wasn't pretty. However, most people forget he pitched fine at home but was awful on the road, much like Drew Hutchison was last year. Happ was re-aligned after spending time in the Ray Searge garage with the Pirates and now takes his new approach back to Toronto where he will have plenty of run support and a very good bullpen behind him. Marcus Stroman is the staff ace and you have to pay for his services, but Happ's reputation is keeping his price down yet all of the pieces are there for him to turn a very nice profit this season.