Collette Calls: Hot Stove Review

We have had a fair amount of hot stove activity in recent weeks with a lot of dollars changing hands, but luckily for single-league format owners, not too many players changing leagues. Let's look back at some of the notable transactions and how a change of scenery or role may impact that player's 2016 fantasy future.

Jed Lowrie returns to Oakland
I guess we all missed the refund policy in the fine details when Lowrie signed his three-year deal with the Astros nearly a year ago. The change in parks really doesn't have much of an impact, as he was terrible both at home and on the road last season, but he did show a little more pop at home thanks to the short porch in left field. For his career, his numbers are ever so slightly better at home than on the road, but he remains a fragile player that at age 32, has had just two seasons with at least 400 plate appearances.

Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro make up the new catching tandem in Chicago
The team non-tendered Tyler Flowers and went with the bats to replace him. Both have flashed power potential, and the park change could help that. That said, Avila has struggled to stay healthy due to concussions, while Navarro saves his best for his former team. Did you know that five of the last seven homers that Navarro has hit have come against Tampa Bay? Neither guys' value changes that much as their age and limitations leave little room for surprise.

J.A. Happ returns to Toronto
You will hear pundits say that this is doomed to fail – a flyball heavy pitcher in a homer-happy park. Hell, I said the same thing last year about Marco Estrada when the Jays dealt for him. Oops. Happ's overall numbers look solid from last season thanks to the amazing run he had with Pittsburgh after he was traded from Seattle, but his return to Rogers Centre should not worry you. In 2014, Happ had a 3.15 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 91 innings at home for Toronto but had a 5.67 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road. He, like Estrada, can pitch at home and now he has better run support to help him out. I'm bumping him up a notch in my 2016 draft rankings.

Jordan Zimmermann goes to Detroit
Zimmermann still got paid coming off a season with his highest ERA in his five full seasons. Historically, Zimmermann has been strong in ratios, wins and has hovered around league average with strikeouts. Last year, the strikeouts fell off in the first half to 18 percent, but he struck out 23 percent of the batters he faced in the second half of the season. The surprising issue for Zimmermann was the gopheritis, particularly in the second half of the season as his HR/FB rate went from 6 percent before the break to 18 percent after it. The velocity trend is also concerning, as this reminds me a bit of James Shields 2014 heading into 2015.

Chris Young goes to Boston
He's a heavy flyball pull hitter with a career slash line of .263/.362/.474 against lefties. The Boston outfield is deep enough where Young doesn't need to be overexposed to righties, which will take him out of consideration for mixed league players, but this is an ideal pick for AL leagues looking for a fourth or fifth outfielder with power upside. Last season, he hit .327/.397/.575 with seven homers and 24 RBI in 175 plate appearance against lefties.

Yonder Alonso goes to Oakland
Yawn. Seriously, yawn. James Loney is even laughing in his general direction.

Mark Trumbo traded to Baltimore
This is a nice change for Trumbo moving from Safeco to Camden Yards. Trumbo ended up with a nice slash line of .263/.316/.419 after a horrendous start with the Mariners but the power was affected by the bigger park in Seattle. He will now fill the Steve Pearce role in Baltimore in a park that plays very well for right-handed power. He could once again challenge 30 homers with enough playing time and friendly road parks within the division in Boston and Toronto.

Hank Conger traded to Tampa Bay
This is news because he immediately becomes the best hitting Rays catcher since Toby Hall. Conger hit 11 homers in part time duty thanks to an 18 percent HR/FB ratio after he hit 11 homers over his previous two seasons with a normalized HR/FB ratio. He should see a majority of the starts at catcher against righties and will be lifted in later innings as Rene Rivera is much better at throwing. Conger could end up with another 10-15 homers in 2016 with increased playing time but the batting average will still be terrible.

Norichika Aoki goes to Seattle
Statistically, Aoki is a prognosticator's dream. His batting average has had all of four points of variance in four seasons while his OBP has had eight points of variance. In 2012, he hit 10 homers and swiped 30 bases, but he hasn't come close to either since. Aoki is a reverse splits guy in that he hits lefties much better than righties thanks to his tendency to bail out on his swing. He should see more time in the outfield than he saw last year for the Giants, will hit for a good average and steal at least 10 bases doing so. If he plays enough and hits high in the lineup, he's a sneaky source of runs as well.

David Price goes to Boston
Price is the kind of player that isn't impacted by any change of location. He'll have the shorter porch in left to deal, but he's never had a problem pitching at Fenway, as he is 6-1 there in his career with a 1.95 ERA. Wins, strikeouts and WHIP are always there for Price, but his ERA has been up and down in recent years depending on how his LOB% has fluctuated. His LOB% has either been close to 70 or 80 in his full seasons with no middle ground, which is why his ERA has been between 2.45, as it was last year, and 3.49, which he posted back in 2011.

Wade Miley goes to Seattle
On paper, this should help Miley as a flyball pitcher with a better home park. In reality, he was bad at home and on the road last season for Boston. The strikeout gains he made in 2014 disappeared this year back to where he had previously been, and his ratios have never been that strong. He's a one-category pitcher whose new home park may help him become a two-category pitcher.

Carson Smith goes to Boston
This was an incredible acquisition for Boston, who has the potential to be what Ken Giles was last season for Philadelphia. Smith may not open the season as the closer, but he has the dominating stuff that could get him the job at some point next year. Smith struck out over 30 percent of the batters he faced last season and held batters to a .192 average. This is the guy you draft and stash in mixed leagues and over a crappy closer in AL-only leagues, as the skills will play and the opportunity could show up in season. Even if they do not, the strikeouts and ratios will be helpful.

Jedd Gyorko goes to St. Louis
This will be a strong test of the #CardinalsDevilMagic theory. Gyorko hit 23 homers in his first season but just 26 since, along with a terrible batting average. He has really struggled against righties, hitting .228/.278/.379 versus .260/.335/.441 against lefties. Moving away from Petco is a win, but this is still a flawed player.

John Lackey goes to Chicago
Steady veteran skills on the move up I-65 where run support should be very prevalent. Lackey is a lock for double-digit wins as he's done it in every full season he has pitched in the bigs. His strikeout rate has been above league average since coming to the NL, but the ERA is going to up in 2016 because his 2.77 ERA last year was a byproduct of an incredibly high 83 percent LOB% rate. Lackey could end up with 15+ wins despite the pending rise in ERA along with the usual strikeouts and WHIP.

Ben Zobrist goes to Chicago
There's no truth to the rumor that Joe Maddon changed his ring tone to Peaches & Herb's "Reunited" after Zobrist signed his new contract with the Cubs. Zobrist should hit at the top of the lineup as he has excellent on base skills even though he's lost a step in terms of stealing bases. He is a solid baserunner that will maintain multi-position eligibility and should hit double-digit homers and score 85-90 runs with a solid batting average.

Zack Greinke goes to Arizona
Much like Price, it doesn't matter where Greinke pitches. The ERA will rise because that 1.66 is nearly impossible to come close to because the 87 percent LOB% isn't repeating. That said, the rise shouldn't be much, as Greinke has stranded at least 80 percent of his baserunners for three consecutive seasons. Now he gets better run support and a defense around him.

Starlin Castro traded to the Yankees
He will go to second base, and while a change of scenery was desired by many Castro owners, this isn't exactly the best landing spot for that. Castro hasn't had a double-double season since 2012 and hasn't stolen as many as 10 bases since 2012 either. He remains an impatient batter who rarely walks, though he has made more contact in recent years. He has had nearly 50 points of variance in his batting average with that approach and his average is at the mercy of the BABIP gods.

Adam Lind goes to Seattle
2013 and 2015 were nice pieces of bread around the crap sandwich that Lind put up in 2014. Lind is what he is: a guy who will deliver 20 homers while pouncing on righties and struggle against lefties. That's not going to change with the move to Seattle and there isn't much upside to his profile.

Brett Lawrie goes to Chicago
He was in an impossible situation of trying to replace Josh Donaldson last season and couldn't hold a candle to the eventual MVP of the American League. The change of scenery should help get him out of that shadow and the new park is a better one than where he was last season. Lawrie should easily be able to hit double-digit homers for a fifth consecutive season and may even challenge 20 homers in the new park, though last year's career-high of 16 came along with a large jump in his strikeout rate.

Shelby Miller goes to Arizona
Anyone who owned Miller last year knows how poorly he was supported by the Braves. The 6-17 record could have easily been 15-9 with any decent run support and that won't be a problem with the potent Arizona offense in 2016. The wins and strikeouts will be there, but the ratios have just been league average, and going to Arizona isn't likely to change that much.

Ender Inciarte goes to Atlanta
Inciarte likely becomes the new leadoff hitter in Atlanta as his very high contact skills and solid OBP make him an ideal fit for the job. The problem is that there is very little behind him in the lineup and Freddie Freeman may not even be there on Opening Day. Inciarte should score 80+ runs and steal 20+ bases with enough playing time to make him a good three-category player, though any growth is going to come from accumulation rather than skills maturation.

Jeff Samardzija goes to San Francisco
Samardzija has been a starter for four seasons. He has double-digits wins once and has had a sub-3.50 ERA once. His strikeout rate has declined each of the past four seasons and was below the league average in 2015. In 2014, he had a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but he hasn't been able to put all of the pieces together in the same season. AT&T Park will be the best home park he's ever pitched in, but Samardzija is the definition of enigmatic and someone I'd rather let another owner overpay for, as the Giants did this offseason.

Yunel Escobar goes to Los Angeles
Escobar doesn't hit for much power despite his frame and doesn't run very well. His batting average is all over the place, but he gets on base because he can take walks and rarely strikes out. He surprised everyone with a .375 OBP last season, which was a 50-point improvement over 2014. If he hits leadoff in front of Mike Trout, he could score a lot of runs, but the homers and steals aren't going to show up out of thin air.

Joakim Soria returns to Kansas City
This is a bummer for people who had him as a keeper, as he's going back to KC to set up Wade Davis, unless Ned Yost surprises everyone and puts Davis back into the setup role. Soria isn't rosterable in mixed leagues, but the skills are helpful in deeper AL ones.

Shawn Kelley goes to Washington
He has struck out at least 30 percent of the batters he has faced in three consecutive seasons, but he rarely works multiple innings and is a heavy flyball pitcher. The strikeout rate should get him late-inning work, but he doesn't exactly profile as a closer due to the light workloads and injuries in the past.

Ryan Madson goes to Oakland
Madson didn't throw a major league pitch between 2012 and 2014, but he came back this year looking as good as ever in middle relief for Kansas City. He was able to parlay that into a surprising three-year deal from the budget-minded Athletics, and he will now be their closer. The skills are there to get all of the saves in Oakland with good ratios as long as the injuries are behind him.

Jason Heyward goes to Chicago
When you look for fantasy targets, it's nice to look for guys who have lineup protection in front of them as well as behind. Heyward will have that with Zobrist before him and Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo after. Throw in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field and Heyward has the ingredients to have a big 2016 season if he can rediscover the loft in his swing and go for the fences. He hasn't gone 20/20 since 2012, but he could do it in 2016 while challenging his career-high of 93 runs that he set in 2012.

Ken Giles goes to Houston
This stinks for Luke Gregerson owners, but the Astros don't give up the package they did to trade for a setup guy. Giles could save 40+ game and strike out 90+ along with excellent ratios with the job now fully his. He was cheap in 2015 drafts, but that will not be the case with this change of scenery as he should go in the top five or six closer spots in drafts.

Vincent Velasquez goes to Philly
Velasquez becomes an interesting option in NL keeper leagues, but single-league players can pass as there are still too many bumps in the road in his immediate future. He has a live arm, but the command isn't quite there and there are workload concerns as he threw just 90 innings last season. It is tough to imagine the Phillies increasing his workload too much in 2016.