NL FAAB Factor: New Closer in Philly?

NL FAAB Factor: New Closer in Philly?

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

One size does not fit all, and we could never hope to encompass all league structures, so bids are based on:

• 12-team league (either NL or Mixed, we'll specify)
• 5x5 categories
• $100 FAAB budget

Programming note: Erik Siegrist is filling in for Jan Levine this week.

Starting Pitching

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals – Set to return to the rotation Tuesday after missing more than a month of action with a groin injury, Garcia isn't likely to be available in most leagues, but in a shallow mixed format where his checkered injury history caused him to be cut loose, don't be afraid to pounce with a healthy bid. The left-hander can't be relied upon to give you a lot of innings down the stretch, but as his 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven starts earlier this year demonstrates, what innings he does give you should be good ones. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Matt Garza, Brewers – Garza looked solid in his return last week from shoulder soreness, holding the Indians scoreless over six innings. The veteran righty had given up 29 runs (22 earned) in his five previous starts before landing on the DL, and if the shoulder were to blame

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

One size does not fit all, and we could never hope to encompass all league structures, so bids are based on:

• 12-team league (either NL or Mixed, we'll specify)
• 5x5 categories
• $100 FAAB budget

Programming note: Erik Siegrist is filling in for Jan Levine this week.

Starting Pitching

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals – Set to return to the rotation Tuesday after missing more than a month of action with a groin injury, Garcia isn't likely to be available in most leagues, but in a shallow mixed format where his checkered injury history caused him to be cut loose, don't be afraid to pounce with a healthy bid. The left-hander can't be relied upon to give you a lot of innings down the stretch, but as his 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven starts earlier this year demonstrates, what innings he does give you should be good ones. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Matt Garza, Brewers – Garza looked solid in his return last week from shoulder soreness, holding the Indians scoreless over six innings. The veteran righty had given up 29 runs (22 earned) in his five previous starts before landing on the DL, and if the shoulder were to blame for his awful season to date, he could see a resurgence over the next nine weeks. Of course a few weeks rest might also not be enough to solve his physical woes, so don't go overboard banking on a rebound based on one start. Mixed: $3; NL: $8.

Zachary Godley, Diamondbacks – Called up with little fanfare to make a spot start Thursday, Godley had a fantastic debut, shutting out the Brewers over six innings and striking out seven without walking a batter. He was a 10th-round pick by the Cubs in 2013 out of Tennessee, and while Chicago moved him to the bullpen after he signed, the D-backs shifted him back into the rotation after acquiring him in the Miguel Montero trade. Scouting reports on Godley in college were unimpressive (low-90s fastball, adequate change, marginal curve), and while he put up good numbers as a 25-year-old in High-A this year (2.27 ERA, 78:19 K:BB in 75.1 innings) Visalia is a long, long way from the majors. He does get good marks for his makeup though, so maybe that counts for something. Godley mainly threw sinkers and cutters in his debut, mixing in the occasional change, and given his unimpressive pedigree and limited repertoire, it's hard to see him turning into the next Chris Heston, much less Jacob deGrom. You never can tell with pitchers of course, but don't overreact to that debut. Mixed: $0; NL: $2.

Tim Hudson, Giants – Hudson got nearly a month off to rest his balky shoulder, but he didn't look any better Monday than he did before he went on the DL. As long as he has a rotation spot in San Francisco, he's got the potential to pick up the occasional win, but the 40-year-old just doesn't seem to have much - if anything - left in the tank. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Zach Lee, Dodgers – It seems like Lee's been a prospect with the Dodgers forever, but he's still just 23 years old and after coming along slowly through the system, the 2010 first-round pick finally made his big-league debut Saturday, though it wasn't an impressive one (five runs allowed on nine hits and a walk over four innings against the Mets). His minor league strikeout numbers don't suggest he'll ever become an ace, but he was effective at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year (2.36 ERA, 50:14 K:BB in 68.2 innings), and if he can solidify the back end of the team's rotation he should have some value. Lee's got a history of struggling in his first crack at a new level though, and Saturday's start indicates that he'll have some growing pains in the majors. Mixed: $2; NL: $5.

Aaron Nola, Phillies – Just when you thought the minor leagues were stripped of potential impact rookies, Nola gets called up and stymies the Rays over six innings in his big-league debut. Philly's top pick, seventh overall, in last year's draft, Nola shot through the system based more on his polish and advanced skills coming out of LSU rather than elite stuff, but he's hardly a finesse guy. Nola combines a low-90s sinker with a slider and change that both grade as above average, and more importantly he knows how to use them. He's not going to be a fantasy ace, especially with the woeful Phillies backing him up, but he should be able to provide useful numbers and has the potential to surprise. Mixed: $6; NL: $18.

Wily Peralta, Brewers – Just a reminder that Peralta returns this Tuesday after missing about two months with an oblique injury. He wasn't having a great season when he went down, but the right-hander still shouldn't be floating around in your free agent pool. In leagues with short benches and no DL spots though, maybe someone got impatient. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Joe Ross, Nationals – Called up once again to fill in for Stephen Strasburg, Ross took the loss Tuesday despite putting up another quality start. He's been outstanding in four scattered starts with the Nats this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and an eye-popping 27:2 K:BB in 26.2 innings, but the team's rotation depth has prevented him from becoming a permanent fixture despite his success. Strasburg is poised to begin a rehab assignment this week as he recovers from an oblique injury, so barring a surprise move by GM Mike Rizzo at the trade deadline, Ross figures to only get a couple more turns in the rotation before he once again heads back down to Triple-A and waits for 2016. Mixed: $1; NL: $4.

Jerome Williams, Phillies – Williams came off the DL after a hamstring injury and was immediately plugged into the rotation, tossing a quality start Friday. He gave up two home runs in six innings though, continuing a disturbing pattern that has plagued him all season (16 home runs allowed in just 76 innings, leading to a 6.28 ERA), and pitching for the Phillies won't exactly afford him a lot of opportunities for wins. Williams probably has a rotation spot, especially if Cole Hamels gets traded, but don't expect him to do much with it. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Relief Pitching

Jeremy Affeldt, Giants, Steve Cishek, Cardinals, Brad Hand, Marlins, and Rafael Soriano, Cubs – This week's best relief options include Affeldt, fresh off a DL stint to deal with a shoulder strain, returning to be the main left-handed option for the Giants; former Marlins closer Cishek joining the Cards to help provide a late-inning bridge to Trevor Rosenthal; Hand, who falls into Cishek's spot in Miami's bullpen; and Soriano, the latest option with Proven Closer Experience in a bullpen that can't seem to settle on a ninth-inning stopper. All should be decent sources of holds going forward and Soriano has a real shot at pulling down some saves at some point, although Cishek is in a slightly better spot than Affeldt and Hand to possibly become a closer as well if you're looking for a lottery ticket. Affeldt/Hand – Mixed: No; NL: $0; Cishek – Mixed: $0; NL: $1; Soriano – Mixed: $3; NL: $8.

Ken Giles, Phillies – The clock is ticking down to the trade deadline, and probably on Jonathan Papelbon's tenure in Philadelphia as well. Nothing's changed here since the spring. If Papelbon gets traded, Giles immediately steps in as the Phillies' closer, and his 11.13 K/9 points to him having plenty of success in the role. This could - and should - be your last chance to get him at a discount. Mixed: $5; NL: $12.

Catcher

Austin Barnes, Dodgers – Barnes returns to LA to fill in for A.J. Ellis, who's on the DL with a knee injury. He's having a solid season for Triple-A Oklahoma, and Yasmani Grandal isn't exactly an iron man, so Barnes could have a bit more value in the short term than a standard backup backstop. Mixed: $0; NL: $1.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Diamondbacks – Set to come off the DL on Tuesday after missing a couple of weeks with neck trouble, Salty is hitting just .213 with a single home run in 20 games since joining the D-backs. Sadly, that's an improvement over what he managed with the Marlins earlier in the year. He'll be serving as Welington Castillo's understudy, and Oscar Hernandez could be around too as a third catcher, so despite his name recognition there's no upside here. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Travis d'Arnaud, Mets – After a couple of rainouts for High-A St. Lucie, d'Arnaud's rehab assignment finally kicked off Saturday. Given how long he's been out of action with an elbow injury he'll probably need at least a week before he'll be ready to rejoin the big club, so in theory he could be activated next weekend, but more likely he won't start collecting at-bats again in the majors until the following period. He's looked good this season in the brief time he wasn't hurt, slashing .296/.338/.535 with four home runs in 19 games, and if he's available, d'Arnaud should be a priority add if you need help behind the plate. Mixed: $5; NL: $14 (if available).

First Base

Freddie Freeman, Braves – Just a reminder that Freeman made a surprisingly quick return off the DL on Saturday after just one rehab game, even though he wasn't in Atlanta's starting lineup that night. As a result, expect a slow start as he gets back up to speed following his wrist injury, and his numbers (including a career-best .520 slugging percentage) could take a bit of a tumble in the short term. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Travis Ishikawa, Pirates – With trade rumors flying around Pedro Alvarez's head and Corey Hart seemingly not in the club's plans, there's a small chance Ishikawa could wind up as the Pirates' starting first baseman following the trade deadline. Even in the best-case scenario he'd only keep the job until players like Josh Harrison or Jordy Mercer get healthy, and Ishikawa's career .256/.320/.397 line doesn't inspire confidence, but if you're scrounging for at-bats there's an opportunity here for some value. Mixed: $0; NL: $1.

Brett Wallace, Padres – Has Wallace finally started to figure things out? The long-time prospect developed a Quad-A reputation a long time ago, putting up a .302/.370/.479 career line at Triple-A but never translating that minor league success into major league production. He's hitting .321/.367/.500 in 28 at-bats since being called up by San Diego though, and it's not like Yonder Alonso is Lou Gehrig at first base. With the team demoting Will Middlebrooks, third base is available as well. For a minimal investment, the 28-year-old Wallace seems like someone worth gambling on. Mixed: $1; NL: $3.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals – The oft-injured Zimmerman finally seems to be inching close to a return from plantar fasciitis thanks to a combination of medication and cleat inserts. He was having a terrible year when he went down, slashing a miserable .209/.265/.346 with just five home runs, and while normally a player with his pedigree wouldn't be available, there's a good chance he was dropped in shallower formats. He's a risk, and there could be a bidding war for him, but the Nationals will give him all the at-bats he can handle once he's activated, and you may not see another player this season who could make his potential impact. Zimmerman's an especially tempting target in NL-only leagues as everyone else keeps their FAAB powder dry for possible big names coming over from the AL at the trade deadline. Mixed: $12; NL: $40 (if available).

Second Base

Jose Peraza, Braves – As one of the top prospects in the organization, there's a strong chance Peraza won't be called up until September this season as the Braves fade out of the playoff chase. However, there's also a chance that the team, who just cleared some veteran deadwood off the roster in a deal with the Mets, will start his service clock a bit earlier than that since Jace Peterson has been hopeless at the plate recently, hitting .187 over the last month with a spiking strikeout rate and a base-stealing success rate below 50 percent. Peraza's just 21 years old, but seems to be having little trouble with Triple-A, hitting .294 with 25 steals and extending his current hitting streak to 13 games Saturday. If Peraza does get the call, he could have his own struggles adjusting to big-league pitching, as he lacks both power and patience. However, with his strong contact skills and speed, he could also make an immediate impact in steals. Mixed: $2; NL: $5 (speculative bid).

Anthony Rendon, Nationals – Just a reminder that Rendon came off the DL and played second base for the Nats on Saturday. The injury-prone label he carries with him out of college has returned with a vengeance this season, but he'll still have a couple of months to build on his 2014 breakout campaign. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Third Base

Hernan Perez, Brewers – If there were a big winner in the Aramis Ramirez deal it was Perez, who'll get a chance to man the hot corner for Milwaukee for the rest of the season. A shortstop by trade, he hit .287/.331/.404 with 21 steals at Triple-A last season in the Tigers organization, so while he doesn't have a typical third base profile, he could provide some value with a decent batting average, a handful of stolen bases and the counting stats that come with regular at-bats near the bottom of a mediocre lineup. That won't move the needle in shallow formats, but in deeper leagues Perez could be a useful hole-filler. Mixed: $3; NL: $10.

Juan Uribe, Mets – Acquired from the Braves along with Kelly Johnson in a move that seems more cosmetic than one actually geared towards improving the Mets' playoff odds, Uribe should provide a steady hand at third base until David Wright gets healthy, and his presence allows Daniel Murphy to shift back to second base. After struggling with the Dodgers to start the season, Uribe rebounded to hit .285 with seven home runs in 46 games once he joined Atlanta, and the Mets would be ecstatic if he could provide that kind of offense for them. Unfortunately, he's got just a .226/.359/.340 career line at Citi Field in 64 plate appearances, so don't get your hopes up. Mixed: $1; NL: $3.

Shortstop

Daniel Castro, Braves – Called up in the wake of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal with the Mets, Castro will provide middle-infield depth behind Andrelton Simmons and Jace Peterson. Peterson's been struggling at the plate (for that matter, so has Simmons), but Castro doesn't appear to be a viable alternative, slashing .264/.313/.294 at Triple-A Gwinnett with no home runs and one steal. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Pedro Florimon, Pirates – The recent rash of injuries to the Pirates' infield has caused them to turn to the all-glove no-hit Florimon, who was hitting his usual .254/.324/.384 for Triple-A Indianapolis. The Aramis Ramirez deal ensures that he'll see most of his action as a late-inning defensive replacement, but Florimon could see the occasional start at shortstop when Ramirez or Jung-Ho Kang needs a breather. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Addison Russell, Cubs – Lost in the shuffle of tremendous debuts by the likes of Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber has been Russell, a top prospect in his own right who's had to make some adjustments in the majors. There are small signs that he's begun to figure things out though, as over the last couple of weeks he's started to make more consistent contact and get his BB/K ratio under control. Russell's still only 21 and has hit well at every stop he's made in the minors, including a .294/.332/.536 slash line in half a season at Double-A in 2014, so there's reason for optimism that his performance will continue to improve over the rest of the season. He won't be available in keeper formats, but if someone else gave up on Russell in a redraft league and you need middle-infield help, he's worth a shot. Mixed: $1; NL: $3.

Outfield

Abraham Almonte, Padres – Almonte replaces Will Middlebrooks on the Padres roster and will provide some depth in the outfield. Even if Justin Upton gets dealt though, Almonte still figures to come off the bench, and his path to regular playing time is murky. He's got a bit of upside in steals, but that's about the extent of his possible fantasy value. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Michael Conforto, Mets – The savior the Mets' offense has been looking for has, well, probably not arrived, but the 22-year-old Conforto could at least be competent at the plate, which would still be an upgrade for the team. Last year's 10th overall pick zoomed through the system and finally got called up after slashing .312/.396/.503 in 45 games at Double-A, and while he's got little speed and only modest power, Conforto's ability to make contact and work the count should be a welcome addition to the lineup. He'll man left field while Michael Cuddyer is on the DL with knee trouble and get regular at-bats, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him keep the job after Cuddyer returns. Don't go overboard here based on the hype (or his four-hit performance Saturday) though, as Conforto figures to be a better player in real life than in fantasy. Mixed: $4; NL: $14.

Carl Crawford, Dodgers – Crawford returned to action Tuesday after missing almost three months with an oblique injury. The veteran wasn't hitting well when he got hurt, slashing just .224/.237/.362 with one home run and no steals in 15 games, and there's no room in the Dodgers' starting outfield right now thanks to Andre Ethier's rebound. There's a small chance Yasiel Puig could be part of a big deadline deal that might open up some playing time, but otherwise Crawford seems ticketed for a bench role down the stretch. Mixed: $1; NL: $3.

Corey Dickerson, Rockies – Just a reminder that Dickerson rejoined the lineup Thursday after recovering sufficiently from his plantar fasciitis. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to finish the season with solid numbers over the final two months, but another flare-up of the condition is always possible. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Adonis Garcia, Braves – Called up to take one of the roster spots cleared when Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson were sent to the Mets, Garcia was hitting a modest .284/.314/.369 at Triple-A and isn't a prospect at 29. He'll provide some depth off the bench, but even if Atlanta clears out Nick Markakis too, don't expect Garcia to fall into a starting role. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals – After getting some quick work in at first base at Triple-A to prepare him defensively, Piscotty made his major league debut Tuesday and of course played nothing but left field as the team used Matt Holliday at DH in an interleague series. You keep being you, Cardinals. The most advanced hitting prospect in the system, Piscotty's profile looks a lot like Michael Conforto's does. He makes contact, has some power and can work a count, but his .272/.366/.475 slash line this season for Triple-A Memphis suggests that he's more of a complementary player in a major league offense than a game-changer. He's currently dealing with a minor neck strain, but once he's back in the lineup, Piscotty should settle in at first base for the rest of the season, eventually giving him some additional positional flexibility. Mixed: $10; NL: $26.

Norichika Aoki, Giants – Just a reminder that Aoki is expected to finish off his rehab assignment this weekend and rejoin the Giants for the home series against the Brewers early next week. He's having a career year in San Francisco, slashing .317/.383/.385 at the top of the Giants' lineup, but he missed more than a month with a fractured fibula so it remains to be seen if he'll be able to keep up that pace. Just an FYI as he should be owned.

Jayson Werth, Nationals – Like his teammate Ryan Zimmerman, Werth was having a miserable season when he got hurt, slashing .208/.294/.287 in 27 games before going down with a wrist injury. Werth should be ready to rejoin the Nats lineup early next week after completing a rehab assignment, but Michael Taylor has been fairly reliable in left field in Werth's absence, which could provide a challenge to his playing time down the road. Taylor's currently in center field covering for Denard Span's own injury, but once the team's outfield is fully healthy, Werth could find himself getting plenty of rest unless he finds his groove at the plate in a hurry. Mixed: $5; NL: $16 (if available).

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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