MLB Barometer: Room for Improvement

First, let's take a look at the pitchers who should have better times ahead.

Now for the pitchers with darker clouds on their horizons.

Remember, xFIP isn't at attempt to predict what the pitcher's ERA will look like at the end of the year (and thus predicting an even more extreme rest-of-season performance to bring their ERA back in line). That would be just another form of the Gambler's Fallacy. Instead, xFIP is predicting what their ERA will look like going forward and is completely separate from what they've already done.

RISERS

Justin Bour, 1B, MIA – Just when it seemed like Bour was going to hit his way back to Triple-A he got hot again, slashing .311/.380/.689 over the last two weeks with four home runs and 14 RBI. Mike Morse is healthy again and Casey McGehee is back in the fold after his San Francisco vacation, but the Marlins seem committed to giving Bour a long look at first base to see if he's any kind of a long-term solution for them. He's been streaky so far in the majors, but his 19:40 BB:K ratio in 61 games is actually pretty darn good for a rookie, even a 27-year-old rookie. I like his chances of supplying solid value in the second half.

Jarrod Dyson, OF, KC – When God closes a door he opens a window, they say, which always struck me as odd because why would God want you sneaking through a window like a thief? Couldn't He open the back door instead, or maybe let you in through the garage or something? It's an appropriate saying for a notorious base stealer like Dyson though, whose open window comes in the form of an Alex Gordon injury. Even if he gets stuck in a platoon with Paulo Orlando (and who doesn't want to see Orlando get more at-bats? That dude's way too much fun to watch), Dyson will be on the strong side of it, and if he gets regular playing time over the next eight weeks he can single-handedly make a difference for you in the stolen base category. He got five starts in the week before the All-Star break, and swiped two bags. You do the math through August.

Kyle Gibson, P, MIN – Conspicuous by his absence from the above chart, Gibson's 2.85 ERA is probably going to sag, but maybe not as much as you expect. His strikeout rate has been trending up, and over his last five starts he's got a tidy 29:11 K:BB ratio in 32.2 innings. Remember, this is a pitcher who posted an 8.1 K/9 in 219.1 Triple-A innings on his way up the ladder, and his strikeout spike in spring training made him a trendy sleeper pick this preseason. Gibson's still only 27, and even on the pitch-to-contact Twins it's entirely possible that he's got some skill growth left in him in the majors.

Taylor Jungmann, P, MIL – If you're looking for a second half sleeper, look no further. Jungmann had a rough go at Triple-A Colorado Springs to begin the season, but that was Colorado Springs, and I've been thumping the "surviving a PCL hitter's park makes you a better pitcher" drum for a while now. Since the Brewers called him up he's been solid, and his last start before the All-Star break was a three-hit, complete-game gem in Chavez Ravine. Jungmann was the 12th overall pick in the 2011 draft, so maybe it's just taken him a while to get things sorted as a professional.

FALLERS

Billy Burns, OF, OAK – Has the Billy Burns bubble burst? He limps into the All-Star break with a .233/.254/.317 slash line and just two steals over the last two weeks, and the folks who have been predicting his demise and calling him nothing more than a fourth outfielder are preparing to get their gloat on. Pitchers were bound to attack him differently though given his hot start, so it's now up to Burns to adjust back. His speed and steals will always give him some value in deeper formats, but if he continues to struggle getting on base coming out of the break it'll probably be time to move on to the next big thing.

Maikel Franco, 3B, PHI – Now, let's be clear here. I'm not saying Franco has peaked and you should trade him for table scraps. He's still an impressive young slugger in a home park built for sluggers. But he hasn't actually homered since June 23, and his .228/.313/.316 slash line over the last two weeks is troubling. As with Burns there were bound to be some adjustments ahead for Franco, and he's firmly in the midst of an adjustment period right now. Plus, Domonic Brown is still sitting there on the Phillies roster mocking anyone who invested in the team's last top hitting prospect, but now is not the time to succumb to your fears. Have some faith that Franco will figure it out.

Matt Harvey, P, NYM – It pains me to list him here because Harvey's talent has always been so apparent and so dazzling, but when a guy coming back from Tommy John surgery walks nine batters in two starts right around when he's crossing the 100 IP threshold, you have to wonder about fatigue. The Mets' experiment with a six-man rotation is on hold while Steven Matz is on the DL, so even though the All-Star break might give Harvey enough of a blow that he can rally to begin the second half, those control issues may very well crop up again if the team keeps him on a regular schedule. Should the Mets fall out of the playoff race, a serious attempt to limit his workload by shutting him down seems inevitable.

Logan Morrison, 1B, SEA – It's not like LoMo was setting the world on fire earlier in the season, but his .171/.241/.371 slash line over the last month is downright putrid, and the M's got so tired of his offensive (in both senses of the word) contribution at first base that they called up Jesus Montero. Montero was lighting it up at Triple-A, and while he's failed in every other major league opportunity he's received so far from Seattle, the club just needs to ask Nelson Cruz about the value of being patient with a Triple-A slugger. The Mariners have little to lose by giving Montero a full-time gig and seeing what he can do with it, and those second half at-bats will mostly come at Morrison's expense.