Collette Calls: Breaking Down Taijuan Walker

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Updated on June 30, 2015 1:37PM EST

Comps are a polarizing thing in baseball. You talk to some baseball folks and they'll tell you Player A reminds them of Player B from years ago. You talk to others and they dislike comping current players to previous players because it clouds judgment of a player. Heck, even projection systems such as PECOTA go as far as listing player names in the projections so you can see how a player is trending statistically.

As fans, most of us are probably in the first camp in that we compare players we look at to guys we used to watch play for our favorite team or owned on a fantasy team years ago. That can be helpful as it can remind you that hulking sluggers have flaws, or speedy guys flame out once the speed is affected by age and injury. For pitchers, it reminds us that velocity is not everything and just because someone's delivery looks like Roy Halladay or Greg Maddux, the results are not guaranteed.

In short, every baseball player is a unique individual. That said, I've had a tough time, for years, separating Edwin Jackson and Taijuan Walker in my head. I refer to Jackson as v1.0 and Walker as v2.0. Both are right-handed hurlers with live arms, similar repertoires, tease with potential and can blow up at a moment's notice. Through his first nine starts this season, Walker did nothing to dispel that comparison for me. Then, over his last six starts, he's made me get

STARTS	IP	HR	ERA	WHIP	BA	K%	BB%	BABIP
First 9	43	8	7.33	1.84	.313	19	11	.358
Last 6	42.1	5	1.91	0.87	.217	27	2	.269

When a pitcher turns around his fortunes that dramatically, we are forced to dive deep into his numbers to see how this turnaround came about. Let's start with something he told reporters in early March:

Taijuan Walker has scrapped his cut fastball and begun throwing a slider. Feels the pitch will have better break and more depth.
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) March 1, 2015

It is one thing to say you're going to do that and another to actually do it. It is not unusual for a pitcher to say they're going to do something in Florida or Arizona and then not take that pitch with them as they travel north. Walker would certainly fall into that camp as his usage of the cutter as a whole in 2015 is practically identical to his usage of the pitch in 2014. In fact, through his first five starts, Walker had double-digit percentage usage of his cutter.

Notice how as his usage of the cutter waned earlier in the season, the usage of his fourseam fastball increased. He is throwing that pitch nearly 70 percent of the time on the season whereas he threw it around 56 percent over the previous two seasons. If a pitcher is going to rely that much on his fastball, he has to command the pitch. If we look back to Walker's first nine starts, we can see that his fastball numbers are very much in line with the league average for starting pitchers:

SPLIT	PITCHES	STRIKE%	CALLStr%	SWStr%	BA	BABIP
First 9	521	67	37	10	.291	.303
League	112,300	66	37	7	.279	.306

While he was within the norm for overall fastballs, he was below average with first-pitch fastballs:

SPLIT	PITCHES	STRIKE%	CALLStr%	SWStr%	BA	BABIP
First 9	142	61	46	4	.474	.474
League	33,000	63	48	4	.352	.323

Not only where his percentages mostly lower than league average, but the first-pitch fastballs put into play were being scorched.

Walker's success in those first nine starts hinged upon him getting ahead with a first-pitch strike. Once he got up 0-1 in the count, he allowed just four extra-base hits and struck out 25 percent of the batters he faced. When he fell behind 1-0 in the count. Walker allowed 10 extra-base hits (.571 SLG%) and struck out 18 percent of the batters he faced. As he struggled to command his fastball over the first nine starts, he threw 30 percent non-fastballs for first pitches, but did so for strikes just 48 percent of the time, getting called strikes just 33 percent of the time.

Over his last six starts, his Strike% and CalledStr% on first-pitch non-fastballs remains the same, but he has simply stopped throwing as many and has instead worked on establishing his fastball early in the count to set up the other pitches.

SPLIT	FB	CT	SP	BB
First 9	69%	14%	0%	4%
Last 6	78%	7%	8%	5%

Note the addition of the first-pitch splitter for Walker during this recent run of success. Advance scouting reports tell batters that Wallker is fastball heavy with first pitches, so they're up there looking for it. By showing a willingness to throw a first-pitch splitter, batters have to keep that in mind and not go up there looking to crush a first-pitch fastball, and the fact the pitch is in the back of the batter's mind allows his fastball to play up.

Let's compare the earlier numbers on first-pitch fastballs to his last six starts:

SPLIT	PITCHES	STRIKE%	CALLStr%	SWStr%	BA	BABIP
First 9	142	61	46	4	.474	.474
Last 6	126	71	59	5	.250	.182

After striking out at least six batters just three times in his first nine starts, Walker has done so in each of his last six starts. He is establishing his fastball with authority and commanding it much better than he was earlier in the season.

SPLIT	PITCHES	STRIKE%	CALLStr%
First 9	521	67	37
Last 6	126	71	59

If Walker can continue to establish the statistical high ground in a matchup that already favors the pitcher over the batter, he can continue his run of success. His mechanics work against him somewhat as he is a short-striding pitcher, which leaves him more open to arm-side run with his fastball, but the run Walker is on now is certainly notable as he shows growth during his third season in the big leagues.