Collette Calls: Breaking Down Ian Desmond

Only 11 players have multiple 20-20 seasons since 2010 and only one has more than Ian Desmond has:

Using our Rotowire Dollar Value Calculator, we currently find Desmond at ... scrolling, scrolling, scrolling ... 21st among shortstops with a -$2 value in standard 12-team mixed leagues right there with Jimmy Rollins and slightly ahead of the injured Jed Lowrie and Jose Reyes who missed quite a bit of time.

When someone has a -$31 return on investment, we have to look at what is going on with this former counting category stud. After all, this is a player who has had at least 20 homers, 20 steals, 70 runs and 70 RBI in each of the last three seasons.

This season, he's not even on pace to approach any of those numbers as he begins play June 6 with 26 runs scored, four home runs, one stolen base and 15 runs driven in while batting .247/.292/.379. The .247 average is nearly identical to where he was last year, but his OBP is down for a fourth straight season and his slugging percentage has fallen 50 points from where it was last year, as it did from 2012 to 2013.

The simple answer is Desmond simply is not hitting the ball as hard as he has in the past. The tough answer is why.

In 2011, Desmond batted .253/.298/.358 before he went on this run of 20-20 seasons. That is the type of season he is on pace to replicate, but let's compare that 20-20 run versus what he is doing in 2015 at a few levels.

First, the traditional rates:

In fact, his overall plate discipline indicators paint an even stronger picture of the similarities between what he is doing now versus the past three seasons:

The Fangraphs Glossary defines Isolated Power as "a measure of a hitter's raw power," and it tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. To calculate a player's ISO, you simply subtract the player's batting average from his slugging percentage. Desmond's ISO is a four-year low .132 and below the major league average:

If there is a glimmer of hope here, it is that Desmond has had a mid-season ISO bump in each of the last two seasons, but that isn't terribly predictive of any future success.

Another way to look at how hard a player is hitting baseballs is to use the Soft%, Med% and Hard% data at Fangraphs. The data comes from data collected by Baseball Info Solutions that visually scores every game. While the stat still has a subjective component to it, but it is a push in the right direction.

In Desmond's case, there is a decline in Hard% this season while he is making more Soft%:

Hard contact comes off of fastballs or hanging secondary pitches. During the 20-20 seasons, Desmond hit .288 off fastballs with a .472 SLG and .185 ISO. This season, he's hit .274 against fastballs, but his SLG is .402 and his ISO is .128. The larger issue is what he isn't doing against secondary pitches.

During the 20-20 seasons, Desmond handled non-fastballs rather well. This season, there's a noticeable decline in how he's handling the changes of speed and the wrinkles thrown to him:

Simply put, what we have in Desmond is a player who is making weaker contact than in years past and beating a lot of balls into the ground. Groundballs are nearly impossible to turn into home runs, but they can become extra-base hits. While Desmond is going to need a miracle to get to 20 home runs, he's on pace to set a career high in doubles. The only way those doubles are going to become home runs is if he starts making harder contact and getting the ball back into the air.

This March, Neil Weinberg of Fangraphs wrote a piece on Desmond noting his issues with pitches up in the zone:

Unfortunately, this is probably an Occam's razor situation with the most obvious explanation being the right one: Desmond's getting worse. If pitchers were getting him to chase because they were throwing high pitches at different times or more often or something, it would mean they had made an adjustment that Desmond could respond to. Instead, the null hypothesis wins out for now and we're left to assume Desmond is becoming vulnerable in this location. ... This isn't a story about Desmond being a flawed player, but I do think it's a reason to think he might be turning the corner toward decline. Maybe he'll have another great year in 2015 and turning down a $100 million extension will work out well, but if the power starts to vanish his offense could bottom out quickly.

If you're holding onto Desmond hoping for a return to 20-20 glory, adjust your expectations and hope that he can just get you double-digits in either category because his days as a $20 player could be gone.