Collette Calls: Breaking Down Steven Souza Jr.

"Free ________!!!!!! OMG, he's hitting .673/.879/1.456 in the minors while ________ can't hit anything for (insert team name here). I've been stashing this guy on my farm before anyone else had ever heard of him and I'm tired of holding the roster spot for him. What else does he have left to prove???!!!!"

It happens every year, and every year we get suckered by a player who punished the upper levels of the minor leagues than looks like crap in the majors when given the opportunity to play. That player in 2015 appears to be Steven Souza Jr.

In 2012, Souza hit .297/.366/.572 while playing in two levels of Single-A. In 2013, he hit .297/.396/.548 at Double-A. In 2014, he hit .345/.427/.577 at Triple-A for the Washington Nationals. Souza got a small cup of coffee with the Nationals because of their talented and well-paid outfield, and his most memorable moment was the diving catch he made for the final out of Jordan Zimmermann's no-hitter last season.

Given that Denard Span, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth were all still under contract, Souza did not have a clear path to a job in 2015 until the Tampa Bay Rays traded for him while restocking a thinning farm system and tiring of the Wil Myers experience. In previous seasons, a guy like Souza would have played all spring and then would have been sent down by Tampa Bay as the coaching staff and front office said he was close to being ready, but needed to work on some things. Magically, those things would work themselves out once the Super Two deadline passed and the player would be up to stay.

That was not the case for Souza as he was handed a starting outfield position immediately out of necessity. The team habitually struggles for offense, and scouts said Souza was ready to hit in the big leagues. He was ranked 37th on the Baseball America prospect list. PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus had him teasing 20/20 and batting .260. Prospect guru Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs had Souza as his 52nd best prospect stating that, "some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he'll be able to keep it up in the majors due to his approach, size and career path."

Souza is 26, and it took time to get to the big leagues because his previous attitude nearly ran him out of the game. The approach and size to his game were covered in mid-December by my ProcessReport colleague & Baseball Prospectus writer, R.J. Anderson:

Souza might be lighter in spirit these days, but he remains a physically imposing figure (one listed at 6-foot-4, 225). At the plate he, he looks a little like Matt Joyce -- hands hovering around his head, knees just outside his shoulders, feet slightly closed. From there he uses a basic leg kick as his stride, while his hands load by dropping then moving toward his back foot. Keith Law noted that Souza is inconsistent with his load, so that's something to watch.

Something else to watch with Souza is the timing of his hips. One of the major complaints about Wil Myers during last season involved how early his hips cleared. Ideally, you'd like to see a batter's hips clear just before his hands come through; those who thought Myers cleared too early might find that Souza clears too late. Often his hips seem to clear in concert with his hands. That means he's going to have to time pitches well in order for the best effect, or otherwise risk whiffing or making suboptimal contact. That is, essentially, the biggest concern about his bat.

That concern has played itself out during the course of the season. After a hot start where he hit .288/.373/.577 in the first 15 games, he has hit .190/.296/.340 since heading into Saturday.

The pie chart below shows the percentages of counts that Souza has been this season:

The primary reason Souza is seeing a lower percentage of pitches in hitter counts than the league average is because of his first pitch aggressiveness. Souza is swinging at first pitches 39 percent of the time while the league as a whole does so 28 percent of the time. His first-pitch swinging strike rate is the ninth highest in the league at 13.7 percent and double the league-wide average of 6.5 percent. In short, he is digging his own grave at the plate because once he is down 0-1 in the count, he is batting .161/.228/.280 with an 8 percent walk rate and 50 percent strikeout rate this season. If he takes the first pitch for a ball, he is batting .333/.500/.619 with a 30 percent strikeout rate and a 23 percent walk rate.

That puts Souza in a conundrum because he does not want to fall behind in the count, yet he also does not want to take strikes early in the count. First-pitch swing aggressiveness can be productive as Jimmy Paredes does it more than anyone in baseball, and he is living the good life in Baltimore doing so. Productive batters such as Adam Jones, Jhonny Peralta, Starling Marte, J.D. Martinez and Matt Holliday are swinging at first pitches more frequently than Souza. He is just coming up empty quite a bit on pitches both in and out of the zone, which speaks to a pitch recognition issue.

When you hear announcers talk about hitters being "in between," or "fighting themselves," they are describing what Souza is going through at the plate. There is no doubting the athleticism and the power because he's already flashed both at the major-league level, but he is having to learn major-league pitch recognition the hard way, and it is very hard to watch.