Collette Calls: Miller Pulls a Maddux, Again

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Updated on May 19, 2015 2:26PM EST

Sunday, Shelby Miller threw his second "Maddux" in May as he came within one out of no-hitter against the Miami Marlins. For those who don't know what a Maddux is, it is throwing a complete game with fewer than 100 pitches. Miller is now 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP and 43 strikeouts. In 54 innings, he has permitted 29 hits and only nine runners have crossed home plate.

While many thought Shelby Miller had the potential to be a very good pitcher, even when Michael Wacha was stealing the show, few, if any, saw this level of dominance coming in 2015. After the second Maddux, we need to look into what Miller is doing in 2015 to get the results he has earned thus far:

YEAR	ERA	WHIP	BA	OPS	K%	BB%
2014	3.74	1.27	.236	.698	17	10
2015	1.33	0.83	.156	.471	21	8

Has he added velocity this season?

Yes, a little. His average fastball velocity has increased from 94.3 to 95.1. The increased changeup in his velocity can be ignored because he has only thrown a small handful.

How has his pitch mixture changed?

Miller has cut back on his four-seam fastball usage and is throwing more sinkers and cutters. That type of change would usually result in a reduction of strikeouts, but that has not happened for Miller. Surprisingly, it has been the cutter that has become the whiffy pitch for Miller as it is the pitch that generates the highest percentage

YEAR	ERA	WHIP	BA	OPS	K%	BB%
2014	3.74	1.27	.236	.698	17	10
2015	1.33	0.83	.156	.471	21	8

Has he added velocity this season?

SPLIT	2012	2013	2014
vs. LH	.167	.266	.238
vs. RH	.194	.205	.235

Miller did not have much of a problem here, but it is worth noting that each year, same-handed batters were doing just a little better against him. This year, not so much. Miller has limited the 101 lefties he has faced to a .202 batting average and a .227 BABIP. As impressive as that is, it pales in comparison to his utter domination of the 105 righties he has faced. He has limited that group to a .109 batting average and a .136 BABIP.

He has more than doubled the use of his cutter against righties while maintaining how he throws it to them. He tends to use the cutter as something that moves away from righties in hopes to get them to chase it or get weak contact off the end of the barrel of the bat. So far, it is working as batters are chasing the pitch out of zone more frequently than they did in 2014, are missing it more frequently when they do swing, and the pitch is fooling righty batters enough to where they're taking it for strikes when not chasing it.

YEAR	CHASE%	CONTACT%	CALLED STRIKE
2014	22	76	23
2015	29	69	32

The cutter is isn't generally thought of as a swing-and-miss pitch. The purpose of the pitch is for the right-handed batter facing Miller to think fastball, and as he tries to square up the pitch to the sweet spot of the bat, the ball cuts away and the batter ends up getting the pitch off the end of the bat or swings and misses. Miller is getting a lot of both and even the called strikes as batters put their fate into the hands of the men in blue.

For lefties, righties normally use the cutter to get into their kitchen and bust them in on the hands. Mariano Rivera made this approach, and the pitch, famous. Miller doesn't copy Rivera; instead, he throws backdoor cutters to lefties and gets even more called strikes than he does against righties.

YEAR	CHASE%	CONTACT%	CALLED STRIKE
2014	17	70	20
2015	27	78	39

Who is he facing?

These are the teams Miller has faced this season:

• Miami
• Miami
• Toronto
• Philadelphia
• Cincinnati
• Philadelphia
• Cincinnati
• Miami

Save Toronto, Miller has faced each of his opponents at least twice, so we can look into the extra exposure angle right away. In the first start against Miami, Miller allowed six baserunners in five innings and struck out four. In the last two starts against Miami, Miller has permitted eight baserunners in 14 innings and has struck out five batters. In his first outing against Philadelphia, Miller had a quality start and permitted five baserunners while striking out three batters. The next time around, he scattered four baserunners in a complete game while striking out eight. His first time against Cincinnati, Miller allowed nine baserunners in seven innings and struck out nine Reds. The next time out, five baserunners in seven innings while striking out eight. In short, he is holding up rather well with increased exposure against teams.

In terms of team batting average, his schedule has been a mixed bag. The Marlins, despite nearly being no-hit Sunday, have the sixth-best batting average in baseball at .265. Toronto is in the middle of the pack at .256 while the Reds at .240 and the Phillies at .238 are in the bottom 10 spots in the league. He will be facing tougher competition as he ventures out more frequently into the other divisions.

Conclusion

We have a pitcher that has changed his process. The cutter is not a new pitch for him, but his implementation of it is. Miller's decision to dial back on his four-seamer for his two-seamer has led to a career-high 50-percent groundball rate and the fastball/cutter combination has been dominant for him. What he has done thus far is legit. The two-run difference between his 1.33 ERA and his 3.28 FIP, along with the .183 BABIP and 89.0 LOB% are all signs of things changing in the future, but luck is the residue of design. This isn't a pitcher who just fell into a sweet run of success doing the same thing he's always done. Kudos to Miller and the Braves coaches for coming up with this plan of attack.