Collette Calls: 30 NL Predictions

Collette Calls: 30 NL Predictions

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

This is the NL half of the AL predictions piece that ran earlier this week.

Atlanta Braves

Freddie Freeman will lead the team in RBI, but will have fewer than 80. The Atlanta lineup is mostly awful, giving Freeman little help. The players in front of him on Opening Day do not specialize in getting on base, so Freeman could end up at the plate with two outs and nobody on more often than not.

Jason Grilli leads this team in saves. Joe Sheehan was quite vocal last season stating he felt Atlanta should move Craig Kimbrel while his value is at peak. Frankly, nothing much has changed to counter that. In fact, the Atlanta roster looks worse than it was last season. Kimbrel has a large contract to close for a bad team much like Jonathan Papelbon does for Philadelphia. There is always a market for closers during the season, and if I were in a tough-luck NL-Only league, I would be a little worried.

Miami Marlins

Martin Prado finishes with the second-highest RBI total on the team. Prado did not do well for Arizona last season but was excellent with the Yankees. Conversely, Mike Morse was up and down last season, with a lot of the ups coming early in the season. My prediction is he gets moved down the lineup and Prado ends up batting behind Stanton. That means Prado gets to hit with Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton in front

This is the NL half of the AL predictions piece that ran earlier this week.

Atlanta Braves

Freddie Freeman will lead the team in RBI, but will have fewer than 80. The Atlanta lineup is mostly awful, giving Freeman little help. The players in front of him on Opening Day do not specialize in getting on base, so Freeman could end up at the plate with two outs and nobody on more often than not.

Jason Grilli leads this team in saves. Joe Sheehan was quite vocal last season stating he felt Atlanta should move Craig Kimbrel while his value is at peak. Frankly, nothing much has changed to counter that. In fact, the Atlanta roster looks worse than it was last season. Kimbrel has a large contract to close for a bad team much like Jonathan Papelbon does for Philadelphia. There is always a market for closers during the season, and if I were in a tough-luck NL-Only league, I would be a little worried.

Miami Marlins

Martin Prado finishes with the second-highest RBI total on the team. Prado did not do well for Arizona last season but was excellent with the Yankees. Conversely, Mike Morse was up and down last season, with a lot of the ups coming early in the season. My prediction is he gets moved down the lineup and Prado ends up batting behind Stanton. That means Prado gets to hit with Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton in front of him. Plenty of steaks on the bases for him.

Jarred Cosart leads the team in strikeouts. There is not a true strikeout artists on this roster, but Cosart has the raw stuff to surprise this season as he re-works his changeup grip.

New York Mets

Travis d'Arnaud is this year's Devin Mesoraco. The young man has talent, but catchers take longer to develop than other positions and some are giving up on him because he hasn't yet matched the gaudy numbers put up in the Las Vegas band box; 20 (and maybe more) homers for d'Araund in 2015.

Matt Harvey pitches fewer than 160 innings and does not exceed his 2013 strikeout total of 191. He has looked great in camp, but the Mets are already talking about limiting his April outings to 90 or fewer pitches, which is going to affect his strikeouts and wins early in the season. I also look for kid-glove treatment with him throughout the season and seeing him lifted for a pinch hitter rather than trying to get another 15 pitches out of him.

Philadelphia Phillies

Ben Revere will steal more than 40 bases and score fewer than 60 runs. It has happened a few times in the last 30 years, even to full-time players. This is a terrible Phillies team that likely will get worse once midseason deals begin, and Revere may have to steal two bases just to increase his chances of scoring when he reaches base.

Ken Giles will save 20 games and strike out 100 batters while doing so. That has been accomplished 13 times in the last 6 seasons by the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara, Greg Holland, Craig Kimbrel, Billy Wagner (in his final year!), Carlos Marmol, Jonathan Broxton and Rafael Soriano.

Washington Nationals

Denard Span will still score 75-plus runs even though he will miss the first few weeks of the season. His injury presents an excellent buying opportunity for someone I was very high on before the injury; 75-plus runs and 20-plus steals that you can likely pick up in dollar days.

Max Scherzer increases his strikeout total for a fourth consecutive season. He will strike out 275-plus batters this season and make voters think twice before checking off Clayton Kershaw for the Cy Young Award. Also, there will be four 15-game winners on this staff.

Chicago Cubs

Dexter Fowler sets a career high for runs scored and breaks the 90-run barrier. His previous high is 85, despite the fact his OBP the last six seasons is .368. He sets the table very well and will have a potent lineup behind him.

Jason Hammel breaks the odd-year curse that has plagued his career and puts the Oakland nightmare behind him to get back to where he was earlier in 2014. His value is quite low these days as I've seen him go in the late reserve rounds in mixed leagues.

Cincinnati Reds

Marlon Byrd hits 15 home runs and is traded or released before season's end. He hit 49 the last two seasons while selling out on his contact to swing for the fences. It landed him one more deal, but his strikeout rate has gone from 20 percent to 29 percent the last three seasons. He rarely walks, swings a ton and misses just as much. Remember Alfonso Soriano's decline? Soriano was coming off back-to-back 30-homer seasons and was released during 2014.

Homer Bailey picks up where he left off in 2014. Bear with me for a second. In April 2014, Bailey was horrendous as the league hit .345 against him, and he closed the month with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. From that point on, Bailey held batters to a .221 average, had a 3.17 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His overall awful numbers and injury have his value hanging on the gutter.

Milwaukee Brewers

Scooter Gennett will go double-double this year in homers and steals and score 70-plus runs. None of those things happened for him in 2014 despite 474 plate appearances and playing in 137 games. He doesn't hit lefties, but there aren't too many lefty starters in the NL Central for him to worry about.

Jimmy Nelson leads the team in strikeouts. He doesn't really have the changeup, but he is going to a spike-curveball, which can be effective in reducing splits. Expect a big step up for Nelson this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Starling Marte finishes the year in the top 15 for overall roto value for hitters. He is the complete package and this season, he'll hit .300, steal 35-plus and hit 17-plus homers. If I were in an NL League, I'd drop 30 on him in a heartbeat.

A.J. Burnett, on his way out the door, strikes out 175 with a sub 3.50 ERA and a sub-1.25 WHIP. He never should have left Pittsburgh for the payday with the Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Adams will drive in 90-plus runs, even though he can't hit lefties well. He is slated to hit cleanup behind three strong OBP players in Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward and Matt Holliday. Adams is going to have plenty of RBI opportunities when he comes to the plate this season.

Lance Lynn becomes a top-20 starting pitcher in mixed leagues. Lynn is on the edge of the next tier, but the new changeup should help him continue his improvement against lefties. This will be a career year for the hurler.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Buy all shares of A.J. Pollock you can. He gets on base, he steals bases, makes good contact and has some pop. This is a $20 NL-Only player waiting to happen as long as he can remain healthy.

Chase Anderson leads the staff in fantasy value by season's end. While Archie Bradley has more upside, Anderson is more polished, and his changeups are a weapon.

Colorado Rockies

Nick Hundley sets a career high for home runs in 2015. In 2013, when he saw a decent playing time for San Diego, he hit 13 home runs in 408 plate appearances. He should see the majority of the plate appearances against righties as he is an odd-one in that he's a righty that doesn't hit lefties well.

Adam Ottavino gets the closer role before the All-Star break and never looks back. He has everything needed for the role and only has to wait for Hawkins to be moved or demoted. This is not a contending team, so flipping a closer who has any value should be a top priority -- especially one that will be retiring in 2015.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Joc Pederson will finish the season hitting in the top third of the lineup and will tease at 20/20 while batting .280. Invest!

Brandon McCarthy will repeat the skills growth in 2015, but just not the innings. I fully believe in his skills, but every inning over 170 should be considered a bonus for a guy that has exceeded that total just once in the last six seasons.

San Diego Padres

Will Middlebrooks hits 20 homers. That is a total he never reached even while playing in the cozy confines of Fenway Park, but Middlebrooks has excellent power and just needs to be left in the lineup to get to the total. It appears as if he has won the job in camp.

Tyson Ross takes his game to another level. He is adding a split-change this year so that he can get more swings and misses without relying on his slider so much. This is good for his long-term health and for immediate help in getting strikeouts.

San Francisco Giants

Brandon Belt hits 20-plus homers and drives in 80-plus runs. He showed signs of this in 2013, but injuries messed up 2014 for him. He gets back on track this season even if the Giants have their usual down year an odd-numbered year.

Tim Lincecum leads the Giants in ... saves. His days as an effective starter are essentially over, but his fastball/changeup could really play up for a single inning in relief.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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