This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Just before Thanksgiving, we looked into the free agent and trade market activity that occurred after the General Managers Meetings in Phoenix. Teams took a small break during the Thanksgiving holidays, but activity picked up in earnest while teams packed their bags to head off to San Diego this weekend. There has been quite a bit of activity that will impact fantasy projections and production in 2015.
Jason Hammel signed by the Cubs: It's a shrewd move by Chicago to trade Hammel as part of the package to get top prospect Addison Russell and then bring him back at a decent price. Hammel had two different seasons in 2014 in that he pitched well for the Cubs and poorly for the Athletics. As a Cub, he held batters to a .222/.272/.354 line and struck out 24% of them while walking just 5%. With Oakland, his home run rate doubled and batters hit .256/.316/.446 against him as he struck out just 19% of them while walking 7%. He's closer to the NL version of 2014 than the AL version.
Brandon Moss traded to the Indians: Moss has hit at least 20 homers in each of the past three seasons. Only 20 players can claim that on their resume, but there's a reason why Moss was available. Not only was he in the second year of arbitration, but he is also coming off offseason hip surgery and there's an inherent risk involved with a power hitter that needed a trunk tweak. His strikeout rate has declined each of the past three seasons while his walk rate has improved at the same clip, but the offseason surgery makes him risky on draft day. If healthy, pencil in the 25+ homers with the switch from Oakland to Cleveland.
Aaron Crow traded to the Marlins: The Marlins added depth to their bullpen, but the change of scenery does not impact the lack of fantasy value here. Crow's strikeout rate fell seven percentage points in 2014 while he continued to post a below-average walk rate. He has the profile of a pitch-to-contact sinkerballer, but not the results of one. His flyball rate has increased each of the previous three seasons while his strikeout rate has disappeared at the same rate. Jason Frasor was re-signed and the team was already plenty deep enough in the bullpen to let Crow fly away.
Josh Donaldson traded to the Blue Jays: In a word, wow. Since Oakland had signed him to a long-term deal, this was a stunner of a deal. For fantasy purposes, this is fantastic. Donaldson moves to a park that does for right-handed power hitters what the push-up bra does to hormones. He has hit 43 homers and 68 doubles over the past two seasons playing in a division with multiple pitcher-friendly parks, including his own home park. Now he moves to one that mostly plays up right-handed power and gets 81 games in a friendly home park. The only concern here is how he hold up playing 90 games a season on fake grass, but 30 homers and 100 RBI are a strong possibility for 2015.
Brett Lawrie traded to the Athletics: Junk bonds, according to Investopedia, are so called because of their higher default risk in relation to investment-grade bonds. Billy Beane traded an investment-grade bond in Donaldson to get a junk one in Lawrie. Since Lawrie's sensational debut in 2011, he has been mostly a disappointment when his production is compared to his draft-day slot/price. There has been no growth in his profile and he has had trouble staying healthy. Perhaps the move to natural grass will help the full-tilt player stay healthy, but the change in parks is not going to help his home run total. He has the type of swing that could hit 40 doubles in that park, but someone will once again overdraft this junk bond. Don't be that guy. The other guys in this deal, Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman, and Franklin Barreto are worth looking at in the deepest of AL keeper leagues.
Sean Rodriguez traded to the Pirates: Rodriguez is a part-time player coming off a career-best 12 home-run season, but the change of scenery is not likely to do much for him. He has a career slash line of .209/.258/.349 against right-handed pitching which is why he finds himself on the bench more often than not. In Pittsburgh, he could end up on the field at multiple positions and be used as a pinch-hitter in games where he doesn't start, but that will always result in the opposing manager making a pitching change. He has decent wheels although he did not run much over the past three seasons.
Ernesto Frieri signed by the Rays: The team that is known for fixing broken pitchers gets a big test in Frieri. The former closer can still get strikeouts, but struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard last year. Tropicana Field can only be so forgiving for a pitcher, and it will be Jim Hickey and new manager Kevin Cash's job to get Frieri back to commanding his fastball. Frieri is primarily a fastball pitcher, so his inability to command his primary pitch last season led to most of his struggles. In a perfect world, he becomes Fernando Rodney 2.0. However, the distance between that dream and the current reality is about as far as the distance for one of the 11 home runs he permitted in 2014.
Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval signed by the Red Sox: For the most part, neither of these guys have a skills risk. Hanley has hit at least .300 in three of the past six seasons and has hit 20 or more homers in four of the past six seasons. The issue with him has been health, as he has only played in at least 140 games in three of the past six seasons. He should love Fenway Park and its cozy dimensions, but guys do not get healthier in their 30's. He should get to 20 homers again with 140+ games played, but the days of 20+ steals are likely gone. Still, a .300 average and 20+ homers from an infielder will be costly on draft day.
Sandoval is not as fragile as Ramirez, but he is also not a model of health in recent years. He has spent time on the disabled list in three of the past four seasons and has thus topped 20 homers just once in the past five seasons. While he hit .279/.324/.415 in 2014, the numbers could have been much better if not for a big problem – his numbers from the right side of the plate. The switch-hitter hit a career-worst .199/.244/.319 from the right side of the plate thanks to a super-deflated .210 batting average on balls in play. Fenway Park plus normal regression to the mean should help Sandoval from that side of the plate, but health will be the concern for him.
Andrew Miller signs with the Yankees: Miller's career has done a complete 180 since 2011. Back then, he was a first-round bust. Now, he's a dominant force in any bullpen. He struck out 43% of the batters he faced in 2014 while commanding the strike zone like he had never previously done in his career. He blows away lefties and righties equally and has all of the makings of a closer, as does Dellin Betances in the Yankees' bullpen. It looks like David Robertson will not be coming back, so Miller has a good chances of taking these skills to the closer role in New York as the roster stands now. Either way, he's rosterable in both AL-only and mixed-league formats.
Didi Gregorius traded to the Yankees: Gregorius should be able to yank a few balls into the short porch as all of his power is pull power, but his greater fantasy value will be helping Yankee pitchers. Gregorius and Brendan Ryan will platoon to be MUCH more of a shortstop than Derek Jeter was in years. The two of them should be able to change many hits from the past into outs in 2015 and help Yankee starters and relievers.
Shane Greene traded to the Tigers: It was reported that the Diamondbacks declined Greene for Gregorius straight up, which necessitated the third team in the trade. Bad move. Greene pounds the lower part of the zone and has an above-league average strikeout rate. This is an intriguing endgame pick-up for AL-only leagues if the skills hold up over a full season, with a better park to pitch in. Last season, he posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.173 WHIP and 44:10 K:BB over 36.2 IP on the road, compared to a 4.71 ERA/1.595 WHIP and 37:19 K:BB in 42 IP at Yankee Stadium.
Robbie Ray traded to the Diamondbacks: Yes, he is left-handed. No, he doesn't miss many bats and is a flyball pitcher in a park that is not very forgiving. Where Ray had some endgame value in AL-only formats, he goes to free agent fodder in NL-only leagues due to the change of scenery.
Nelson Cruz signed by the Mariners: The Mariners tried to get him last year, but finally got their man a year after his career season. Cruz's 2014 slash line was very much in line with his 2013 slash line, but the 40 homers stand out because of the Nintendo-like numbers he put up in the first two months of the season. Cruz hit .315/.383/.675 through the end of May with 20 home runs. While he hit 20 more homers over the remaining four months of 2014, he also hit just .249/.308/.451. He moves from a park that accommodates right-handed power to an environment in Seattle that is not as cozy and has a very thick marine layer that works against long flyballs. Cruz has plenty of power to play in Seattle, but he could also lose 10-15 homers of last season's total with a combination of the environmental factors plus HR/FB regression.
Michael Saunders traded to the Blue Jays: Toronto fans get another Canadian to cheer for in 2015 as the Jays found their replacement for the departed Melky Cabrera. Saunders was nearly a 20/20 player in 2012, but his numbers and health have digressed from there. He is still young enough to challenge those numbers again, but his struggles against lefties and below-average contact ability limits his upside.
J.A. Happ traded to the Mariners: From a pure baseball trade, this was not a good move by Seattle as they took on more salary in Happ while moving a player with more upside in Saunders. From a fantasy angle, the change of scenery should help Happ who becomes a more intriguing endgame play in AL-only leagues. The lefty posted a career-best walk rate last season while gaining velocity over the past few seasons. He has a league-average strikeout rate, but the AL East was not very forgiving of his mistakes as he permitted 22 home runs on the season. The improved offense in Seattle and the new park could lead to 10+ wins and 150+ strikeouts over a full season. The risk is in the ratios, which have not been rosterable since 2009.
Nick Markakis signed by the Braves: This was a head-scratcher of a deal even before we learned that Markakis could be out for three months for neck surgery. There is no upside in what Markakis can do, but he has been relatively healthy and easy to do projections for the past few seasons. Now, he will be late starting the season and recovery from neck surgery is no sure thing. He shouldn't be drafted in mixed leagues and NL-only leaguers should tread carefully as there is little reward tied up in this risk because the upside just is not there.
Jim Johnson signed by the Braves: The Braves needed someone in the bullpen to replace the departed Jordan Walden, so they went out and got his antithesis. Johnson was a hot mess last year that could not command his pitches and was punished for it. The improved defense in Atlanta and a change of scenery may help him recover some of his value, but this is a skillset that has not looked very sharp since some time in 2013 and as long as Craig Kimbrel is in Atlanta, saves aren't going to be available.
Torii Hunter signed by the Twins: Hunter has not hit more than 20 home runs since 2011 and has only driven in more than 90 runs once in the past six seasons. Neither of those things are going to change in 2014, and he also no longer runs. He will be asked to hit in the middle of the Twins' lineup, and should hit for average and drive in some runs, but he's a 39-year-old two-category player who might be traded during the season as the Twins fall out of contention.
Chris Heisey traded to the Dodgers: The Dodgers needed a right-handed platoon bat for their outfield, and they have one in Heisey. While fantasy owners clamored for Heisey to get more time with Cincinnati, that is not going to happen in Los Angeles as their outfield depth chart is even more crowded than Cincinnati's ever was. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
