Collette Calls: Profits & Losses - Hitters

If it felt like this year was particularly rough on big name players, you were not off-base. Last season, the following batters each lost more than $20 of value during the season: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, B.J. Upton, Jesus Montero, Albert Pujols, Starlin Castro, Jason Heyward, Jose Reyes, Kevin Youkilis, Danny Espinosa.

This year, the list was even worse.

Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Bryce Harper, Prince Fielder and Chris Davis were all first-round draft picks in many drafts this season. Jason Kipnis and Shin-Soo Choo rarely fell out of the second round in drafts, while Wil Myers and Joe Mauer were not making it out of the fourth round.

Most of that list was impacted by major injuries. Fielder's back essentially ended his season before it could begin. Votto dealt with a quadriceps issue for most of the season and Gonzalez once again struggled with injuries. Choo battled elbow and ankle issues, Myers hurt his wrist, and Wieters tried to play through an elbow injury before trying to shut it down. In all, those who employed a stars and scrubs approach on draft day were likely heavily impacted by the poor return on investment from some of the biggest names on draft day. That group of players was acquired for a sum of $371 in late March and produced -$29 of value on the season.

Conversely, these were the players that were acquired for at least $1 on draft day and turned a profit of $20 or more dollars:

Michael Brantley had a few fans – namely Bernie Pleskoff – coming into the season but few saw this kind of breakout for him. Conversely, many people liked Victor Martinez this year but even his biggest fans never saw this MVP-caliber season coming. Jose Altuve continues to defy critics and the diminutive second baseman led the league in hits. Denard Span used a career-best 31 steals (at age 30) and a .300 batting average to build up his value. Anthony Rendon always had the talent, but added the health this season. Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera shoved their numbers in the faces of the PED naysayers while Todd Frazier and Corey Dickerson put it all together at once. The group of players cost $65 on draft day to acquire and generated $255 of profit for their owners.

There were also several players that were either undrafted or went for no money in the reserve rounds that were extremely profitable in 2014. Five such players turned profits of at least $20 for owners: Dee Gordon, Charlie Blackmon, Josh Harrison, J.D. Martinez, and Lucas Duda. Gordon's value was driven mostly by him leading all of baseball in stolen bases. Blackmon rakes at home and provided a valuable power/speed combo. Harrison and Martinez had their breakout years while Duda hit for power in a season where few players had at least 30 homers and 90 runs driven in.

In all, there were 16 players that did not garner a dollar bid on draft day and turned a double-digit profit:

If we expand the group into dollar days and look for profits in the end game when players were acquired for $1 or $2, there were only three double-digit profits: Span, Cabrera, and Devin Mesoraco.

Lastly, if we look at the breakdown by position, this is how many double-digit profits and losses were found at each position looking only at players that were purchased on draft day:

Despite the number of surprises this season from new breakout or bounceback players, the disappointing numbers from some of the biggest names in fantasy baseball made for a very strange fantasy season. It will be interesting to see how mixed leaguers, many of which employ stars and scrubs battle plans on an annual basis, behave in 2015 coming off a year where so many big names were tremendous disappointments. We have seen fantasy players shy away from pitching when they've been burned, but it will be interesting if they treat batters the same way. In an era where offensive numbers are going down and pitching numbers are on the rise, it will be interesting to see if the marketplace goes against the grain in 2015.

If you would like to see the full list of data for hitters, click here. The next article will focus on the pitchers. That will come once I return from the Arizona Fall League and First Pitch Arizona trip with Jeff and DVR this next weekend.