This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
First, an updated list of the top surgers in strikeout rate. This table shows all pitchers that have faced at least 70 batters this season and how their 2014 strikeout rate compares to what they did last season. By request, I included all pitchers this time and not just starting pitchers so you can see which relievers have made nice surges. Since this an article about the other side, feel free to ask questions in the comments section about anyone in the first table. I would ask you to take particular notice to a guy at the top of the list as he is a classic example of pitchers flourishing in the bullpen while struggling in the rotation. He could be a closer for many teams in baseball, but is stuck behind Greg Holland.
| Pitcher | 2013 | 2014 | Difference | Pct Difference |
| Wade Davis | 18% | 43% | 25% | 133% |
| Collin McHugh | 9% | 27% | 18% | 201% |
| Jake Diekman | 25% | 39% | 14% | 57% |
| Tony Watson | 19% | 33% | 14% | 70% |
| Hector Rondon | 18% | 30% | 12% | 65% |
| Jon Lester | 20% | 30% | 10% | 53% |
| Tyler Thornburg | 18% | 28% | 10% | 55% |
| Sean Doolittle | 23% | 32% | 9% | 42% |
| Garrett Richards | 16% | 25% |
First, an updated list of the top surgers in strikeout rate. This table shows all pitchers that have faced at least 70 batters this season and how their 2014 strikeout rate compares to what they did last season. By request, I included all pitchers this time and not just starting pitchers so you can see which relievers have made nice surges. Since this an article about the other side, feel free to ask questions in the comments section about anyone in the first table. I would ask you to take particular notice to a guy at the top of the list as he is a classic example of pitchers flourishing in the bullpen while struggling in the rotation. He could be a closer for many teams in baseball, but is stuck behind Greg Holland.
| Pitcher | 2013 | 2014 | Difference | Pct Difference |
| Wade Davis | 18% | 43% | 25% | 133% |
| Collin McHugh | 9% | 27% | 18% | 201% |
| Jake Diekman | 25% | 39% | 14% | 57% |
| Tony Watson | 19% | 33% | 14% | 70% |
| Hector Rondon | 18% | 30% | 12% | 65% |
| Jon Lester | 20% | 30% | 10% | 53% |
| Tyler Thornburg | 18% | 28% | 10% | 55% |
| Sean Doolittle | 23% | 32% | 9% | 42% |
| Garrett Richards | 16% | 25% | 9% | 55% |
| Ervin Santana | 19% | 28% | 9% | 48% |
| Zack Greinke | 21% | 29% | 9% | 42% |
| Trevor Cahill | 16% | 25% | 9% | 54% |
| Brandon McCarthy | 13% | 22% | 9% | 64% |
| Justin Grimm | 17% | 25% | 8% | 47% |
| Michael Kohn | 23% | 31% | 8% | 36% |
| Aaron Harang | 18% | 26% | 8% | 44% |
| Johnny Cueto | 21% | 29% | 8% | 37% |
| Ian Kennedy | 21% | 28% | 8% | 38% |
| Carlos Carrasco | 14% | 21% | 7% | 51% |
| Jose Fernandez | 28% | 34% | 7% | 24% |
| Esmil Rogers | 16% | 23% | 7% | 40% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 17% | 23% | 6% | 35% |
| Jerry Blevins | 21% | 27% | 6% | 28% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 19% | 24% | 6% | 31% |
| Chris Capuano | 18% | 23% | 6% | 32% |
| David Price | 20% | 26% | 5% | 26% |
| Tyler Lyons | 19% | 25% | 5% | 28% |
| Stephen Strasburg | 26% | 31% | 5% | 20% |
| Clayton Kershaw | 26% | 31% | 5% | 21% |
| Randall Delgado | 17% | 22% | 5% | 29% |
| Jason Hammel | 16% | 21% | 5% | 31% |
| Brett Cecil | 28% | 33% | 5% | 16% |
70 batters faced is used as the filter because that is what is required to stabilize strikeout rate for pitchers in order for us to look into what the pitcher is doing differently to achieve the results. Now, let's look at the pitchers whose strikeout rate has declined by at least five full percentage points from last season.
| Pitcher | 2013 | 2014 | Difference | Pct Difference |
| Brandon Gomes | 35% | 15% | -20% | -58% |
| Josh Lueke | 25% | 13% | -12% | -47% |
| Heath Bell | 25% | 14% | -12% | -46% |
| Anthony Bass | 16% | 5% | -11% | -68% |
| Kelvin Herrera | 30% | 21% | -9% | -31% |
| Danny Farquhar | 35% | 26% | -9% | -26% |
| Dustin McGowan | 23% | 14% | -9% | -38% |
| Mark Melancon | 25% | 17% | -8% | -32% |
| A. J. Burnett | 26% | 19% | -8% | -29% |
| Clay Buchholz | 23% | 16% | -7% | -32% |
| Ivan Nova | 20% | 13% | -7% | -37% |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 35% | 27% | -7% | -21% |
| Rex Brothers | 27% | 20% | -7% | -26% |
| Carlos Villanueva | 20% | 13% | -7% | -35% |
| Paul Maholm | 16% | 9% | -7% | -43% |
| Luke Gregerson | 24% | 17% | -7% | -28% |
| Anthony Swarzak | 18% | 11% | -7% | -37% |
| Brandon Maurer | 17% | 11% | -7% | -37% |
| Mike Pelfrey | 15% | 8% | -7% | -44% |
| Shelby Miller | 23% | 17% | -6% | -27% |
| Erik Bedard | 21% | 14% | -6% | -31% |
| Josh Collmenter | 22% | 16% | -6% | -29% |
| Sonny Gray | 26% | 20% | -6% | -24% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 25% | 19% | -6% | -25% |
| Todd Redmond | 24% | 17% | -6% | -26% |
| Jamey Wright | 23% | 17% | -6% | -27% |
| Tyler Skaggs | 21% | 15% | -6% | -29% |
| Scott Feldman | 17% | 12% | -6% | -33% |
| Matt Belisle | 21% | 15% | -6% | -27% |
| Ricky Nolasco | 20% | 14% | -5% | -27% |
| Tanner Scheppers | 20% | 14% | -5% | -28% |
| Tony Cingrani | 29% | 24% | -5% | -18% |
| Felix Doubront | 20% | 15% | -5% | -25% |
| Alfredo Simon | 18% | 13% | -5% | -29% |
| Drew Smyly | 27% | 22% | -5% | -18% |
| Eric Stults | 15% | 11% | -5% | -31% |
| Justin Verlander | 24% | 19% | -5% | -20% |
| Yu Darvish | 33% | 28% | -5% | -14% |
No wonder the Rays' bullpen is so terrible this season! Brandon Gomes has been working on a cutter, which is not used for strikeouts, while the other two relievers are simply varying degrees of terrible. Anthony Bass, who has seen save opportunities for Houston, has seen his strikeout rate drop to just 5.2% - very atypical of a closer. He has just one more strikeout (4) than he does home runs allowed (3) in 77 batters faced this season.
What is affecting the others? Let's use a similar checklist to review some of the more relevant fantasy pitchers:
Velocity issue?
Pitch utilization issue?
Injury issue?
Skills issue?
Velocity issue: Nope
Pitch utilization issue: Nope
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Batters are making slightly more contact with him this season and he is throwing a lower percentage of strikes. He is getting batters to chase more, but his called strike percentage is well down from his previous efforts. That's the biggest thing hurting him right now.
Velocity issue: Actually throwing a bit harder
Pitch utilization issue: Throwing more cutters and fewer fastballs
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Swing & miss rate well down from last season, more foul balls, and fewer called strikes and chased pitches. That's all related to the increase in cutters as those are thrown to generate weak contact
Velocity issue: Yes, somewhat
Pitch utilization issue: Throwing more fastballs and changeups
Injury issue: Always a looming concern
Skills issue: Despite the change in repertoire, batters are making more contact against him. His Contact% is seven percentage points higher this season than it was last season
Velocity issue: Not really
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer fastballs, more cutters
Injury issue: No
Skills issue: More balls put into play as a side-effect of using more cutters and is getting fewer called strikes because he is throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. Swing and miss rate is holding up despite the changes.
Velocity issue: Indeed it is
Pitch utilization issue: More two-seamers, fewer four-seamers
Injury issue: Is pitching through a sports hernia
Skills issue: He is throwing fewer strikes, and batters are not chasing his pitches like they did last season. The injury may have a bit to do with it, but it is more due to the fact he's trying to get more weak contact with the two-seamer these days.
Velocity issue: Yes
Pitch utilization issue: More cutters, fewer fastballs and changeups
Injury issue: Always a fear
Skills issue: Batters are swinging and missing at fewer pitches, and he's not getting as many called strikes as he did last season. Going away from his changeup is puzzling because it has been a good whiff pitch for him.
Velocity issue: Yes, a little
Pitch utilization issue: No, same as it ever was
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: He cannot find the strike zone with any regularity these days and batters are waiting for him to find it rather than chase pitches out of the zone.
Velocity issue: Yes
Pitch utilization issue: Nope
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Can't throw strikes and batters are not chasing his stuff until he throws strikes. He is pitching from behind too frequently. He has only allowed four extra-base hits, but his walk rate is not closer worthy right now.
Velocity issue: Yes
Pitch utilization issue: Yes, has cut back on the sliders and is throwing more two-seamers
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: He is inducing more swings with the two-seamer to get weak contact. Everything else is holding up rather well for him.
Velocity issue: Nope
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer curveballs, more cutters, but not a big difference.
Injury issue: Not known
Skills issue: He's still trying to find the strike zone. He's throwing strikes below the league average rate, and isn't getting batters to chase and miss his pitches as frequently as he did last season. Strikeouts will return once his control does.
Velocity issue: Nope
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer four-seam fastballs, more changeups
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: He's getting more swings out of the zone, but fewer called strikes this season so he's not ahead of batters as much. Other than that, very little difference from 2013.
Velocity issue: Yes
Pitch utilization issue: Slight differences from last year
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Getting out of the AL Central and into the AL Beast has been a bit of an adjustment. Batters are making more contact against him this year as the quality of opponent in the division is better. Other than that, his other indicators have been stable.
Velocity issue: Quite the opposite
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer changeups
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Fewer changeups means fewer swings and misses and he's having more balls put into play despite a better delivery and velocity this season.
Velocity issue: Yes
Pitch utilization issue: More curveballs this season, fewer changeups
Injury issue: Did have a DL stint earlier this season with biceps tendonitis
Skills issue: His swing and miss rate is down for the fourth consecutive season. He is throwing strikes at the same rate, getting more pitches chased, but the swing and miss rate is back to his 2010 levels and that's not good.
Velocity issue: Velo is up a bit from last year
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer curveballs, more fastballs
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Swing and miss rate returned to pre-2013 levels and batters are putting balls in play at a career high rate against him. To quote Doug Dennis of BaseballHQ, "This guy sucks."
Velocity issue: Slightly, yes
Pitch utilization issue: Cut back on the fastballs, added breaking balls
Injury issue: Currently on the DL with shoulder tendonitis
Skills issue: Has been a bit more wild this season and more of his pitches are being put into play as he is trying to incorporate more of his secondary pitches.
Velocity issue: Not really
Pitch utilization issue: Same as it ever was
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: Just about everything he did last year he is doing this year, but he's having more balls put into play. That screams of a command issue where he is unable to locate effectively within the strike zone.
Velocity issue: Yes, we'll get to that
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer cutters, more curveballs
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: He has to conserve velocity as a starting pitcher whereas he could air it out as a reliever. He isn't getting batters to chase as many pitches, but overall the skills are holding up.
Velocity issue: It is in decline, again
Pitch utilization issue: More curveballs, fewer fastballs
Injury issue: Nope
Skills issue: He is adjusting to pitching in the next half of his career. The velocity is not coming back, but his skills are holding up very well. Less velocity means more balls in play for him.
Velocity issue: Nope
Pitch utilization issue: Fewer cutters and sliders, more fastballs
Injury issue: Late start to the season with shoulder soreness
Skills issue: Cutting back on the slider of death and using more fastballs has led to more balls in play. He's still striking out plenty of batters, and the new approach may be better for him in the long run.
