Danny Salazar

Pitchers will break your heart, and most of the time, it's through no fault of their own. It's just that pitching a baseball is an unnatural, violent motion that inevitably leads to injuries. Salazar has fallen victim to that harsh reality; he missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury and only made it back for one start last season before a groin injury put him on the shelf for good. At least it wasn't another arm issue. He showed flashes of his old self while rehabbing in the minors in 2019, especially after he advanced to Triple-A with an 11:2 K:BB over 7.1 scoreless innings (two starts). However, since we haven't hardly seen Salazar in the majors the last two years, it's impossible to have expectations (really of any kind) for 2020. The only thing we can reasonably expect is that he will spend time on the injured list. He will likely pitch out of the bullpen if and when he's healthy.

Once viewed as an emerging frontline starter, Salazar has seen his stock plummet over the last few years as he's dealt with arm troubles. Late in 2016, Salazar was diagnosed with a mild forearm strain. He was then sluggish out of the gates in 2017, and he suggested his weighted-ball work may have been having an adverse effect. Eventually, he hit the disabled list with right shoulder soreness and later made another trip to the DL with elbow discomfort. When pitchers and catchers reported last spring, it was announced that Salazar was behind the rest of the starters after experiencing a relapse with his shoulder in January. He never made it onto a major-league mound, and at this point it's fair to wonder if Salazar will ever be himself again. The Indians are hoping he can build back up as a starter, but team president Chris Antonetti already acknowledged the possibility that Salazar is utilized as a reliever in 2019.

For the second straight season, shoulder and elbow issues marred Salazar's fleeting but tantalizing performance, and he took two trips to the disabled list. The right-hander still had a walk rate near 4.0 BB/9 again, but he made up for it, somewhat, with his double-digit strikeout rate. He remains one of the hardest-working hurlers -- not in a good way, as he averaged 17.6 pitches per inning, well above what's desired. His durability concerns often override flashes of brilliance. During a stretch of five starts in the second half, he posted a 46:9 K:BB and 1.39 ERA across 32.1 innings. Of course, after that, he landed on the DL. Despite his late-season bullpen stint, Cleveland aims to put him back in the rotation for 2018, but renewed shoulder trouble in January put him behind the Indians' other starters entering spring training. The payoff potential is significant (as he showed in 2015) if he can stay healthy, but he's already off to a poor start in that regard.

Salazar ran into his first injury woes as a major leaguer, and they not only cost him time, but also impacted his bottom line. The shoulder, elbow, and forearm were all cited as issues during the season, with the latter two both forcing him to the sidelines. Meanwhile, his walk rate surged to a career-worst 10.8 percent, the fourth highest figure among starters (min. 130 IP). In 60 starts from 2013-15, he walked more than four batters just twice, but he had five such outings in 2016. His first-pitch strike rate also dropped to a career-low 53.9 percent (career 58.6). On the plus side, his 27.6 percent K% was the highest since his 30.8 percent mark in his 52-inning debut back in 2013. He also improved upon his groundball gains from 2015, aiding him to his best home run rate ever (1.05 HR/9), made more impressive by the colossal leap in homers league-wide. The injury issues will lower his price, but there's still huge upside. Speculate.

It's hard to call Salazar's 2015 season anything but a resounding success, but the campaign didn't start off so smoothly. As late as July 9th, Salazar had a 4.10 ERA after his fourth outing of fewer than five innings and third of those with at least five earned runs allowed. He would allow five-plus runs just once more en route to a 2.84 ERA in his final 15 starts (95 IP). Premium heat (11th-highest average velocity at 96 mph, min. 800 fastballs) sets up what has turned into a devastating split-finger changeup. His 52 percent strikeout rate with it was light years ahead of the pack among the 75 pitchers who threw 300-plus changeups. A third pitch to quell lefties more could yield ace-level returns.

Salazar reminded everyone once again why you can’t get overly excited about 52 innings, even if they are excellent. As much as young pitching can pay off and help carry your fantasy team, it can also put you in such a hole when it goes wrong that you will spend months erasing the damage. While we have seen several youngsters take the league by storm, it is still far from a guarantee. Plus, it’s not like Salazar’s biggest issue wasn’t front and center even during the 52-inning stint of 2013. He had a 1.2 HR/9 in those 10 starts, but the flashy strikeout rate and impressive ratios masked it for many. Salazar came out and allowed eight bombs in his first eight starts of 2014 en route to a 5.53 ERA and a trip back to Triple-A. He ironed out some of the issues, returned in late July and allowed just five homers in his next 12 starts. The right-hander's still not a finished product at age 25, but still has tremendous upside that could include large strikeout totals.

Salazar started the season at Double-A Akron before bringing his high-90s fastball to the Indians for 10 starts. The Indians kept a lid on his innings in all but a few starts, which certainly limited his impact, but he's clearly pitched his way into the team's plans for 2014. The short-term issue here is that he logged 145 innings over three levels in 2013, which could prompt the Tribe to cap him at something in the 175-180 range this season. Still, with an 11.3 K/9 and good control at each of his minor league stops (including a 2.6 BB/9 in his big league debut), Salazar has the highest upside in the stable of Cleveland starters.

Salazar came back with a vengeance after Tommy John surgery, combining for a 1.12 WHIP, 2.36 ERA and a 7.8 K/9 rate between High-A Carolina and Double-A Akron. The Indians still have him in a starting role, but his two-pitch arsenal is better suited for use as a power arm out of the bullpen and he could advance quickly if he makes the transition to a reliever. Scouts are also leery about his ability to handle a heavy workload, so the role change makes sense in that regard as well. Still, you can't blame the Indians for seeing if his live arm can stick as a starter given the limited number of high-upside starters currently in the Cleveland farm system.