This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
The schedule remains a bit lighter than usual for us this week, as rain washed out two potential selections Tuesday, but we are left with no shortage of umpires with tight strike zones, which presents us with a few more stack opportunities than usual in big ballparks.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: SD at LAA
Umpire: Ted Barrett
Player Recommendation:Kole Calhoun, OF: 1-for-4, SB
To say we didn't get the desired result here would be an understatement, as the game was scoreless until the Padres put up four runs in the top of the 10th. Despite the disappointing miss, Barrett should continue to be considered when hurlers who have trouble with command take the hill, as he is sporting just a 7.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 222.3 innings this season.
Game: SEA at TB
Umpire: Brian Gorman
Player Recommendation:J.A. Happ, LHP: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K
Happ bounced back from a rough first inning to post a respectable line, but he needed a season-high 111 pitches to get through six innings. Gorman's low walk rate should continue to promote low-scoring games, but his strikeout rate (7.2/9) needs to improve for him to be considered one of the better options for run suppression.
Wednesday
Game: PHI at NYM
Umpire: Vic Carapazza
Player Recommendation:Noah Syndergaard RHP: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 6 K
Syndergaard had the best game of his young career, as he did not allow an earned run for the first time in four starts, while also going 3-for-3 with a home run. Carapazza's rate stats still leave something to be desired, but he boasts the second-lowest ERA of any umpire who has called at least 100 innings this season, which could make him worth a look going forward.
Game: TEX at CLE
Umpire:Jeff Nelson
Player Recommendation:Brandon Moss, OF: N/A
Moss was in the midst of a 1-for-13 slump at the time of the contest, which resulted in David Murphy getting the start in right field. It's a shame Moss didn't get in the game, as the Indians trounced Colby Lewis for 10 runs (nine earned) in 2.2 innings. Nelson now sports a 4.93 ERA in 177 innings, which is the fourth-worst mark among umpires this season.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: PIT at SF
Umpire: Bill Miller
Player Recommendation:A.J. Burnett, RHP
Burnett has once again found his groove in Pittsburgh, and he should have a nice chance to keep his season rolling against the Giants, as Miller boasts a walk rate of just 2.5/9, while maintaining a strong 3.12 K:BB ratio.
Game: ATL at ARI
Umpire: Jim Reynolds
Player Recommendation:Freddie Freeman, 1B
Reynolds will carry a 4.66 ERA and a 3.4 BB/9 rate into the game, which could spell bad news for Arizona starter Josh Collmenter, who has struck out fewer than 12 percent of the batters he's faced this season. Freeman has begun to heat up again after riding out a bit of a slump, which could result in positive results if he is able to consistently get ahead in the count.
Wednesday
Game: TB at LAA
Umpire: Jeff Kellogg
Player Recommendation:Evan Longoria, 3B
Kellogg has kept a tidy 2.93 ERA behind the plate this season, but remains a target for offense because of his hitter-friendly rate stats. Through nine games this season, Kellogg has managed to tally the worst K:BB ratio of any umpire who has seen at least 50 frames (1.74) and is tied for the worst strikeout rate (6.1:9). Hector Santiago has pitched well of late, having allowed just five runs in his last five starts, but still posses a walk rate of 3.6/9, which could make for some interesting opportunities if Kellogg's zone remains tight.
Game: CHC at MIA
Umpire: James Hoye
Player Recommendation:Anthony Rizzo, 1B
I generally try to bring you at least one hitter and one pitcher each day, but there is no one among the viewable umpires that comes close to a suitable selection for run prevention. Hoye becomes our second umpire for offense Wednesday because he has seen 3.8 BB/9 in his 157.1 innings, and while Dan Haren has been tough on the mound this season, his penchant for allowing the long ball could be an issue if he isn't finding the corners.
Thursday
Game: HOU at BAL
Umpire: Brian Gorman
Player Recommendation:Dallas Keuchel , LHP
That makes three weeks in a row for Gorman as a selection, who, as luck would have it, is the only viewable umpire Thursday. The Orioles are a nice team to pair with Gorman, as Baltimore punches out enough to compensate for his low strikeout rate, while walking just 4.7 percent of the time against southpaws, which is the worst mark in baseball this year.
