FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.

Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.

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Pitcher

Cash: Lance McCullers, HOU vs. CHW ($11,300) -- As ratios and results go, the 2018 version of McCullers is the best we've seen yet. He's still striking out more than a better per inning, and getting a significant share of his outs on the ground, while setting a new career-high in wins (9) and currently holding a career-best mark in WHIP (1.15) with an ERA (3.55) right in line with his career level (3.59). While the White Sox are only slightly below league average against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+ (95), they have struck out at a 25.1% clip -- fifth highest in MLB this season.

Also consider: Chris Sale, BOS at KC ($12,500), Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. TB ($12,000), Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. OAK ($10,500)

GPP: Here's a quick thought on each of the options I would consider for tournaments (in addition to McCullers, Sale, deGrom and Carrasco)...

Having four pitchers above $10K should spread the ownership rates around enough to make any of those expensive options viable in tournaments. Even though it's his first start back from the DL, it would not be a surprise to me if Carrasco ended up with the highest ownership rate of that group by a small margin.

Dylan Bundy, BAL at MIN ($9,600) -- Like Carrasco, Bundy is making his first start back from a stint on the DL. Bundy hurt his ankle running the bases in Atlanta, but was pitching very well before the injury. Since failing to record an out during a start against the Royals in May, Bundy is 5-2 with a 60:16 K:BB over 55.1 innings, with a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP during that span. Although the Twins don't strike out at an alarming rate against righties (21.3% -- no Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton on Friday), they have quietly delivered a below average 92 wRC+ through the first half of the season.

Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. ATL ($8,400) -- The Braves continue to keep strikeouts in check -- their 20.2% K% against right-handed pitching is the sixth-lowest team split in the league -- but steering away from the Braves with pitchers in DFS isn't as necessary as you might think (95 wRC+). Through five big-league starts, Peralta has been feast or famine thus far, and in his last outing Sunday in Cincinnati, he labored through a 43-pitch first innings before rallying to get through five frames.

Zack Godley, ARI vs. SD ($8,200) -- In today's installment of 'Who is pitching against the Padres tonight?' we're left to decide on a disappointing arm whose control has taken a big step in the wrong direction in 2018. I'd rather use Peralta for $200 more, but so would everybody else, so the consideration of Godley hinges on whether you want to go contrarian with your pitcher spot on a night were 5-6 better alternatives are on the board.

Sonny Gray, NYY at TOR ($7,700) -- Another home start last time out led to another blow-up from Gray against the Red Sox over the weekend. On the road in 2018, Gray has a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Much like the home struggles of Julio Teheran a year ago, it's easy to see how Gray might be a bad fit in his home park, but the extreme nature of his struggles isn't fully explained by park factors. Using Gray requires the same thought process as Godley on this slate.

Catcher/First Base

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE vs. OAK ($4,100) -- A's righty Paul Blackburn kept the Cleveland lineup quiet over 6.1 innings in his last start. I don't think he's going to pull off that trick twice, and while the elite Cleveland bats are great building blocks, they're going to cost more than Encarnacion. The concern with Blackburn comes from his inability to miss bats -- he's struck out 38 batters in 82.1 innings during his time with the A's.

Josh Bell, PIT vs. PHI ($2,500) -- Bell's drop in power since last season is more surprising than his surge to a career-high 26 long balls in his rookie campaign. Through 86 games, he's hit five homers while slugging .385, but Bell has maintained the plate discipline profile (18.0% K%, 11.4% BB%). As a switch-hitter, Bell has a lefty-righty matchup against Nick Pivetta to begin Friday's tilt with the Phillies, and Pivetta's ongoing struggle to keep the ball in the park remains his biggest flaw (1.34 HR/9).

Greg Bird, NYY at TOR ($2,800) -- Jays starter Sam Gaviglio has upped the use of his slider and increased his strikeout rate in 2018, but the ERA is still a half-run below his FIP, and even with his overall improvement, he's struggled to keep the ball in the park this season (1.51 HR/9). Bird is a tournament-only consideration (either as a cheap C/1B or UT), as he's struggled since returning from the DL to the tune of a .200/.306/.419 line in 32 games.

Second Base

Max Muncy, LAD at LAA ($4,400) -- If you're looking for a compelling case to avoid Muncy beyond not being able to afford him, I don't have one to make. He's facing Deck McGuire -- a first-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2010 who has 13 MLB appearances under his belt (three starts) with a 5.34 ERA and eight homers allowed in 30.1 innings.

Rougned Odor, TEX at DET ($3,000) -- Since getting a pair of games off in Kansas City (one of which was apparently a disciplinary matter), Odor has started to pick up the pieces and recover from a horrendous three-month stretch to begin 2018. Over the last 13 games, he's hitting .280/.368/.480 with three homers and four stolen bases. A matchup against Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers is on tap Friday.

Jonathan Schoop, BAL at MIN ($2,500) -- After a two-homer game Thursday, Schoop will be a reasonably popular punt option at the keystone against Lance Lynn.

Alen Hanson, SF vs. STL ($2,200) -- Hanson also homered Thursday (only once), and he's even cheaper than Schoop with a matchup against John Gant for those seeking an even cheaper bat to cover second with the benefit of extra flexibility to spend up elsewhere.

Third Base

Justin Turner, LAD at LAA ($3,700) -- The price is creeping up, but he's still very affordable with the aforementioned matchup against Angels starter Deck McGuire.

Adrian Beltre, TEX at DET ($3,200) -- Stacking the Rangers is very easy to do, to the point where it might be a chalky stack. In any case, Beltre is one of several one-off plays or mini-stack pieces to consider against Jordan Zimmermann.

Rafael Devers, BOS at KC ($2,700) -- Somehow, Devers is a tournament-only consideration, as he's struggling to draw walks, but beginning to tap into his raw power on a more frequent basis in recent weeks (.274/.299/.487, 5 HR in last 30 games). Friday's matchup against Jason Hammel is a good one, as Hammel is struggling to miss bats (5.9 K/9) while serving up homers to left-handed bats at a decent clip (1.14 HR/9).

Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS vs. MIA ($3,700) -- With two homers -- including a grand slam -- in the offensive monsoon from the Nats on Thursday night, Turner will be highly owned (again) at this price point. The chalk factor in tournaments is the only real deterrent. Marlins starter Dan Straily has a multi-year reverse split, with a higher home-run rate (1.90 HR/9) and wOBA allowed (.329) to righties than to lefties.

Xander Bogaerts, BOS at KC ($3,500) -- This season, 12 of the 13 homers hit by Bogaerts have come against right-handed pitching. With the expected high interest in Turner, Bogaerts is a nice pivot for just a few hundred less, with a higher spot in the order than teammate Rafael Devers, who was recommended as a GPP-only play above. Bogaerts is a viable option in cash-game and tournament lineups in this matchup.

Elvis Andrus, TEX at DET ($3,100) -- He's still underpriced, and I'm still very interested in playing him.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon, COL at SEA ($3,900) -- With a 1.36 HR/9 and .338 wOBA allowed to lefties since the start of the 2016 season, King Felix Hernandez simply isn't the King anymore. Blackmon on the road is nicely discounted for what is actually a very good matchup in a decent hitting environment at Safeco Field for lefties.

Juan Soto, WAS vs. MIA ($3,700) -- Just like we enjoyed the prolonged stretch to begin the season when Ozzie Albies didn't carry an elite price tag, the opportunity to build lineups around Soto at this price won't last forever.

A.J. Pollock, ARI vs SD ($3,600) -- Now that he's healthy again, Pollock against lefties -- especially when the price is down -- is back to being one of the first matchups to look for in the outfield on a daily basis. Since the start of last season, he's hitting .284/.335/.579 (.914 OPS) against southpaws, with even better numbers in a few of his other healthy seasons.

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at KC ($3,600) -- Of the Boston bats in this piece, Benintendi is the one I like the most, but the outfield has the most viable alternatives to consider at a similar price point.

Shin-Soo Choo, TEX at DET ($3,500) -- Another potential option in the Texas lineup at a very affordable price against Jordan Zimmermann and the Detroit bullpen.

Marcell Ozuna, STL at SF ($2,900) -- Dereck Rodriguez starts for the Giants on Friday, and while he's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park thus far (0.73 HR/9), he was carrying a 1.97 HR/9 at Triple-A to begin the season. His baseline might be closer to the former than the latter -- especially in his home park, but this price is simply too low for a player with Ozuna's raw power.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek was a frequent writer and media host. During his tenure, he'd been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also had hosted RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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